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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I could have sworn you said you needed an inch to get to normal, maybe wrong but congrats

That was me. Been waiting for almost a month. Amazing that i will have to mark this down as a below average winter for 1 inch. 5th below average winter in 17 years.

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw -

Here are Hanscom Field (KBED) April 1997 temperatures for the first five days of that month.

42/36

46/40

55/44

55/50

59/47

edit, the number to the immediate right is actually the daily average - sorry.  heh.  The number on the left was the high.

I was biking around snowbanks to middle school by the next week. 75 on the 7th took care of the last of the snow. Departures for that month at KBOS were:

-8, -4, 1, 5, 0 3, 16, -4, -15, -10

Hard to call it a torch in April when it's in the 70s and the record (at the time) was 86 (now 90).

(And if that 16, -4, -15 departures looks crazy, so far this month we're looking at 22, 10, -7, -20, and yes, we should set a high max and low max in the course of four days.)

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

euro crushes you Ray but of course the fantasy stuff is just that. I thought of this this morning when I saw last night Euro, that would be fun

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.394.8539&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Some of the best snow I've seen in March of '56.   Of course being the height level of a 9 year old magnifies the effect of the depth.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus if we can get a little help from the NAO and even just a slight nudge + in the PNA domain...that's a sweet run we would be on.

Wow what a weenie run verbatim...but yeahs it would feel better with a little more wiggle room on latitude. But we're on the right side of things this run. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow what a weenie run verbatim...but yeahs it would feel better with a little more wiggle room on latitude. But we're on the right side of things this run. 

Pretty good ribbon of cold from AK through Quebec so there is money in the bank.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lol....there was only one way to go from the White Juan run

True, but I was not expecting 3 weeks with zero measurable snow - currently at 16 days.

 

And for 'Fella - March 19, 1956 was the 1st really large snowstorm in my memory.  (Only 21 mo. old for the 12/47 dump.)  Two feet looked awfully tall to a 10-year old.

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26 minutes ago, tamarack said:

True, but I was not expecting 3 weeks with zero measurable snow - currently at 16 days.

 

And for 'Fella - March 19, 1956 was the 1st really large snowstorm in my memory.  (Only 21 mo. old for the 12/47 dump.)  Two feet looked awfully tall to a 10-year old.

You old fart!

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

True, but I was not expecting 3 weeks with zero measurable snow - currently at 16 days.

 

And for 'Fella - March 19, 1956 was the 1st really large snowstorm in my memory.  (Only 21 mo. old for the 12/47 dump.)  Two feet looked awfully tall to a 10-year old.

I meant the trend on the Euro from last run.

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice to see GFS bow down to Euro yet again... Winter pattern takes ahold next weekend and beyond

Still a lot of uncertainty about that post-D7 period but Friday seems to be gaining some legs on most guidance. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a lot of uncertainty about that post-D7 period but Friday seems to be gaining some legs on most guidance. 

Yeah that Friday snower seems legit.. it's the 2 after it that keep fluctuating north and south.  With that bitter cold in Canada pressing south that boundary should end up somewhere in the D.C. to Philly area 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that Friday snower seems legit.. it's the 2 after it that keep fluctuating north and south.  With that bitter cold in Canada pressing south that boundary should end up somewhere in the D.C. to Philly area 

Yeah if it presses south...that's the question though. It might not press south before the next storm after that. 

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