ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: To keep it real, it stayed chilly in 1997 after the blizzard but keep in mind that normals are over 50. With the exception of one warm day on 4/17 it was cool most of the month until the final week. Actually about 7 or 8 days after the blizzard I think we had record cold. We almost had another snow event but it got sheared out in the final couple days. I think we had one pretty good torch day though about 5 or 6 days after the blizzard before that huge cold shot. I wanna say we got maybe mid to upper 60s. Nothing extreme but pretty mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: To keep it real, it stayed chilly in 1997 after the blizzard but keep in mind that normals are over 50. With the exception of one warm day on 4/17 it was cool most of the month until the final week. Fwiw - Here are Hanscom Field (KBED) April 1997 temperatures for the first five days of that month. 42/36 46/40 55/44 55/50 59/47 edit, the number to the immediate right is actually the daily average - sorry. heh. The number on the left was the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty easy to see why the GEFS initially torch us through day 9-10. GEF EPS Kind of a west-based -EPO ridge there... The GEFS actually look more 'idealized' in terms of wave spacing that fits the classical planetary model. Contrasting, the EPS appears stressed with the flow downstream of the EPO ridge, because it is trying to maintain a stronger ridging signal in the west-based NAO. That in total sort of "stretches" the nadir ..and actually, it hints at a subtle omega structure there like it almost tries to split the whole thing into two L/W. Interesting. I would have to guess that of the two, the GEFs is the more stable product, but ... these differences are not huge and, well, if the atmosphere always wended its way to a stable set up first, we wouldn't have storms either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 56 minutes ago, weathafella said: To keep it real, it stayed chilly in 1997 after the blizzard but keep in mind that normals are over 50. With the exception of one warm day on 4/17 it was cool most of the month until the final week. I seem to remember the 3' of snow we got out here melted pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 This would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I seem to remember the 3' of snow we got out here melted pretty quickly It was April. It was melting during the day with the temps still below freezing and snow continuing to fall until mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: To keep it real, it stayed chilly in 1997 after the blizzard but keep in mind that normals are over 50. With the exception of one warm day on 4/7 it was cool most of the month until the final week. That snow was gone in like 2 days. It did not stay cold after that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That snow was gone in like 2 days. It did not stay cold after that storm See posts above. The record shows it was normal to below. Normal high then is above 50. My snow was certainly not gone in 2 days! Early September equivalent sun angle will melt the snow no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Gfs just wants to furnace us whole euro is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs just wants to furnace us whole euro is pretty cold. Cmc is pretty similar to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs just wants to furnace us whole euro is pretty cold. Puff puff pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Puff puff pass I dunno. Base state sort of supports warmer east. Hopefully euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno. Base state sort of supports warmer east. Hopefully euro holds. Agreed. Relative to its self ...it's not a disagreeable revolution of events out there in time ( ...detail arguments aside ...) This sort of goes along with what we mentioned earlier, with that EPS and GFS comparison, how the GEFs has a stabler look to it - it could very well be the course of least regret for operational, objective weather efforts. If we want the Euro to hold serve and be wrong ... okay. I know that's not what you meant - just bustin' rocks. I also see the 582 dm isopleth as being unusually far N ...not necessarily at points, but overall. That's "the band" thing we were talking about the other day and it's not helping this run's winter cause. The flow down stream of the Rockies doesn't have a physical prayer of troughing with that perpetual repulsion going on from the S everywhere. That, and we're also seeing huge gradient still...just won't seem to ever relent. That 582 sort of bench mark isopleth needs to really recede and open up a bigger "gap" between it and the 576 ...which also gaps more with regard to the 570 and so forth. I dunno - it's the same issue we were talking about two nights ago and needing the consistency before buying in... What this run does if nothing else, is exposes the fragility of that colder paradigm that desperation is clinging to - We'll see where the Euro goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 It seemed like the gfs guidance including its own ensemble did cool off. Heights looked higher up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Jesus....Ok, John and Squeaky Scoots....you win; where is my oozy? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Euro loses the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus....Ok, John and Squeaky Scoots....you win; where is my oozy? Lol Nah... there's time. I actually like the day 6 Euro look ... coming in now, across southern Canada. It has a tantalizing set up that sometimes preludes a subsume phase. I haven't seen the day 7 just yet, but... getting to that day 6 arrangement is precarious enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Euro has two events this run...keeping things more wintry. First is prob a pretty minor snow event. 1-3/2-4 type clipper and then it has a more significant snow to ice to snow type overrunning system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Euro lost the higher heights out west. The end of the run had the blocking, but the lower heights hurt. Prior to that were a couple of events that looked interesting, but that will change again in 12hrs probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Probably won't end up resulting in much accumulating snow where many people live, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably won't end up resulting in much accumulating snow where many people live, but something to watch. euro crushes you Ray but of course the fantasy stuff is just that. I thought of this this morning when I saw last night Euro, that would be fun http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.394.8539&rep=rep1&type=pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro loses the blizzard Shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Yep watch there be a whole other solution for 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice dusting ya got last night. I know, right?...inch of dust that ended up freezing to the windshield. Utterly useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Heh, I see the wave at D8 or whenever but ... the governing theme of this run for me is basically a back off look. That said ...there almost not predictive value to it, either. There's about no comparative similarity over the least three cycles of the operation Euro - So, pretty much a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 I hope it comes back on the 00z but we all know that is wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: euro crushes you Ray but of course the fantasy stuff is just that. I thought of this this morning when I saw last night Euro, that would be fun http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.394.8539&rep=rep1&type=pdf Hey, its an option....but still ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know, right?...inch of dust that ended up freezing to the windshield. Utterly useless. I could have sworn you said you needed an inch to get to normal, maybe wrong but congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I could have sworn you said you needed an inch to get to normal, maybe wrong but congrats No way...I said 1' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, I see the wave at D8 or whenever but ... the governing theme of this run for me is basically a back off look. well from 962 to 1005 you may be on to something there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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