JC-CT Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Make fries great again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Thursday is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: We roll downhill into Spring after this week. Hopefully we get something later this month. Euro run has basically nothing in SNE after tomorrow. Obviously subject to change but not a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thursday is crap. Right now? no ... Absolutely? not yet - ...No names, but sometimes I think folks in this collection pool of like-minded ilk actually covet their disappointment ...secretly. Maybe it's something like transference syndrome, only in this case ... deeply rooted abandonment was comforted in early childhood during a some sort of a winter storms ... now as adults, forever enslaved to looking for whatever it was that was lost. This storm today is 1/3 over... people are pissed about Thursday? Makes sense...because the storm finally comes, and the transference delusion ultimately fails as it would, and so they start feeling emotionally stranded by the next one. Heh. Endless cycle ..repeating the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. But seriously, handwringing consternation spanned over a week's worth of modeling cycles et al, and finally ... the blizzard last week. Many were in a 4" per hr, mere feet visibility choking snow hold on their immediate environs ... with pulsing positive stroke bomb blasts going off all around them no less ...and yet, they start complaining about the aggregated types... ? ! W T F. It's enough to make you laugh, ...then, worry. Like what are we actually enabling by even contributing one's thoughts and insights? Baffles the mind. Sometimes I even wish storms like this one would literally just bust absolutely down to 0 after 10 solid days of persistent infinity ... just for morbid fascination and note taking ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: We'll get events, but you know what I mean. Wasn't talking about you in this instance. Jeff knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right now? no ... Absolutely? not yet - ...No names, but sometimes I think folks in this collection pool of like-minded ilk actually covet their disappointment ...secretly. Maybe it's something like transference syndrome, only in this case ... deeply rooted abandonment was comforted in early childhood during a some sort of a winter storms ... now as adults, forever enslaved to looking for whatever it was that was lost. This storm today is 1/3 over... people are pissed about Thursday? Makes sense...because the storm finally comes, and the transference delusion ultimately fails as it would, and so they start feeling emotionally stranded by the next one. Heh. Endless cycle ..repeating the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. But seriously, handwringing consternation spanned over a week's worth of modeling cycles et al, and finally ... the blizzard last week. Many were in a 4" per hr, mere feet visibility choking snow hold on their immediate environs ... with pulsing positive stroke bomb blasts going off all around them no less ...and yet, they start complaining about the aggregated types... ? ! W T F. It's enough to make you laugh, ...then, worry. Like what are we actually enabling by even contributing one's thoughts and insights? Baffles the mind. Sometimes I even wish storms like this one would literally just bust absolutely down to 0 after 10 solid days of persistent infinity ... just for morbid fascination and note taking ... Pretty sure Ray was just talking about model output without emotion but lol thanks Dr Freud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wasn't talking about you in this instance. Jeff knows Base depths at NNE ski areas should not be an issue this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: American fries biatch Curly fries FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Euro run has basically nothing in SNE after tomorrow. Obviously subject to change but not a great sign. Just Friday the Euro runs were fabulous lol. Two days later there's nothing..love how that happens!! Two days from now..who knows what they'll show?? And I think we had a blue bird day back on Wednesday (before the big snow event), when it was 63 degrees in BDR. Felt like spring that day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Something unusual with the system dropping southeast from Yukon-NWT, the warmest reading anywhere in Canada recently was at Yohin Lake in the southwest part of the NWT near the Alberta border (52 F). This is only a slight chinook effect as nearby mountains are not all that high. Would be 45-48 F plus a bit of downsloping. Normal temperature there would be something like 10 F. I think this system (for the coast Wednesday into Thursday) still has some upside potential and the GEM had a promising look earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 39 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Something unusual with the system dropping southeast from Yukon-NWT, the warmest reading anywhere in Canada recently was at Yohin Lake in the southwest part of the NWT near the Alberta border (52 F). This is only a slight chinook effect as nearby mountains are not all that high. Would be 45-48 F plus a bit of downsloping. Normal temperature there would be something like 10 F. I think this system (for the coast Wednesday into Thursday) still has some upside potential and the GEM had a promising look earlier. Well ...the 18z must be listening to you because I'd say by full 2 or 3 degs of rotation around a common axis, the system on this oper, GFS run was closer to phasing through hour 72. Not a huge amount, but... if it did that two more cycles you go from blase flurries and packets of light snow and possible IVT's to full on coastal.. Yukon obs aside, this is still a volatile period of time because the antecende teleconnector modalities really likes that period, timing -wise. Nothing may come of it ... sometimes these signals come to pass without producing. But, it's too early to discount that in my mind despite the fantastic lemon-suck posting over the it right now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ...the 18z must be listening to you because I'd say by full 2 or 3 degs of rotation around a common axis, the system on this oper, GFS run was closer to phasing through hour 72. Not a huge amount, but... if it did that two more cycles you go from blase flurries and packets of light snow and possible IVT's to full on coastal.. Yukon obs aside, this is still a volatile period of time because the antecende teleconnector modalities really likes that period, timing -wise. Nothing may come of it ... sometimes these signals come to pass without producing. But, it's too early to discount that in my mind despite the fantastic lemon-suck posting over the it right now - I was just about to comment how it looked better. Southern stream wasn't lagging nearly as much. Better trajectory on the northern ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: I was just about to comment how it looked better. Southern stream wasn't lagging nearly as much. Better trajectory on the northern ULL. it's actually closer even than I thought! The 72 to 82 hour can bomb nutty if that 500 mb just torques really one more increment of integration with that southern stream enticer - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 But it's the 18z ... fleeting goes the hope - we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's actually closer even than I thought! 84 hour has the 72 hours to 82 hours can bomb nutty if that 500 mb just torques really one more increment of integration with that southern stream enticer - If the orientation of the ridging were a little more CMC-esque, steeper northern stream angle of attack would've done the trick. I continue to like the trends. Might be one of those situations where things come roaring back after getting hazy in the middle range. Then again, maybe not... we'll see. Definitely liked the looked at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GYX seemed to indicate 2 possibilities...one which has a coastal redevelopment that gives snow to all in GYX zones, or an open wave that gives most to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: GYX seemed to indicate 2 possibilities...one which has a coastal redevelopment that gives snow to all in GYX zones, or an open wave that gives most to Maine. . that about covers it .. yeah. "Something" should happen j/k... i know i know Basically, in the minimum an open wave will induce some sort of precipitation mechanics ...likely snow given to the thickness layout. The question is, more? Don't quote me .. I got a funny feelin' this thing phases more on the 00z ... I'm actually looking f'n forward to a GFS run - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 How is the sampling where the northern ULL is? Is that a data sparse region, or can we expect a pretty clear picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 34 minutes ago, Hoth said: How is the sampling where the northern ULL is? Is that a data sparse region, or can we expect a pretty clear picture? Not sure... Honestly, the N-stream has been pretty stable in the guidance. It's really about whether that southern stream gets kicks down stream in time to end up on the positive side of the trough axis... 3 days ago, the Euro 1978ed us over it... Things faded as that feature was left behind. We're just sort of waiting to see if that trend reverses and ...well, this 18z run did take a single stop in that direction - well, notwithstanding the GGEM from 12z. The N-stream won't do it alone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Euro run has basically nothing in SNE after tomorrow. Obviously subject to change but not a great sign. I've accepted a below-average snowfall for a while now. It won't be quite a deep a departure than I feared, but I anticipate missing average by a sizeable margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I've accepted a below-average snowfall for a while now. It won't be quite a deep a departure than I feared, but I anticipate missing average by a sizeable margin. Everyone in SNE is AN to date. Everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 With todays system I will be right near seasonal average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone in SNE is AN to date. Everyone True story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Nam is late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Man, I was hoping Thursday would work out. Gonna be a long wait after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man, I was hoping Thursday would work out. Gonna be a long wait after this. Any Idea as too how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Great analysis, John....thanks. Hopefully these latest trends continue, but I'm skeptical. I will say..these these signals are often lost in the medium range, only to "storm" back onto the modeling scene- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 FWIW....ridge out west a hair better through hr 30.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Ehh...I'm ready to nail-coffin this- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 GFS doesn't excite me much for midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.