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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

18z GEFS is even further north with the clipper than 12z. Would be mostly wet for anyone south of NNE.

Disagree about that interpretation.  Here are the individual members snow outputs, although not exactly they do show the mean is farther south than you indicate on March 12th

KORH_2017030518_gefs_snow_384.png

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Disagree about that interpretation.  Here are the individual members snow outputs, although not exactly they do show the mean is farther south than you indicate on March 12th

KORH_2017030518_gefs_snow_384.png

You can read the model output that's fine. But that track/setup would be mostly wet; even for ORH. You get front end snow to RA at ORH. Enjoy. 

We have two BN days and suddenly suppression is the consensus when this hasn't happened all season. Wake up. It's going to be 60 on Tues into Wed, and the UL synoptic pattern on Friday, is completely different than what we experienced this wknd.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

You can read the model output that's fine. But that track/setup would be mostly wet; even for ORH. You get front end snow to RA at ORH. Enjoy. 

I really don't see it but until the wave breaks it means nothing anyways. GEFS and EPS look the best they have since February blitz. Should be an interesting couple of weeks. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I really don't see it but until the wave breaks it means nothing anyways. GEFS and EPS look the best they have since February blitz. Should be an interesting couple of weeks. 

I won't disagree here. Just speaking with regard to the clipper-- -the speed and orientation of the flow--and how this relates to the cutter bomb and the following sw--is too fast and flat for suppression. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I won't disagree here. Just speaking with regard to the clipper-- -the speed of the flow--and how this relates to the cutter bomb and the following sw--is too fast for suppression. 

Doesn't look like a SWFE primarily NNE situation to me  as you stated previously. That's a lot of low level cold air indicated 

gefs_z500a_exnamer_21.png

gefs_t850a_exnamer_21.png

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That 18z run would be painful lol.

Suppression depression is Ginxy's gold.

Though given the seasonal trend definitely better to have the gradient south at this point and for the next several days.  Seems like it's been easier to get north trends than south trends in a general seasonal stand point. 

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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Lol. Pay up dude.

Nothing in this world is free. Not even the pos "forecasts" disseminated by weather communicators (on-camera "meteorologists") for the msm are free. They are cheap though--to you as the consumer--and that's why they suck.

 

Pretty much... we're all a bunch of idiots.:axe:

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That 18z run would be painful lol.

Suppression depression is Ginxy's gold.

Though given the seasonal trend definitely better to have the gradient south at this point and for the next several days.  Seems like it's been easier to get north trends than south trends in a general seasonal stand point. 

SE ridge has been pretty dominant this winter. So pretty typical in winters like that the north trend dominates. 

That said, Euro has been kicking the GFS' butt recently. It compressed the last clipper while GFS kept showing a hit even up to about 60 hours out and then it finally submitted to Euro...so we will see what happens in the next few runs when the goal posts narrow as get into that 72-84 hour range. 

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6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty much... we're all a bunch of idiots.:axe:

I have lurked and posted here only for ob's and sports over the past but to hear that BS bothers me. This sight has the best weather info you can get if you listen to the right people. Even the wishcasters know more than me. It is up to people like Ryan , Scooter, Will etc. Tippy? to tell the news be it a cold rain or a swampy ass or whatever you have its weather! All to realize they know their ****. And hope we get a few more flakes! Rant done.

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