ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a pattern with low predictability. Why on Earth would you make a call? The only thing right now I would say(and its jmho), is that I think one of these things will work out over the next 10-12 days. Friday still looks decent on the mean. Seems like it could be a redeveloper, although I haven't seen the indovidual members. We're probably going to have 3 or 4 chances over the next 2 weeks. Outside of the OP euro, Friday looks pretty decent but in this fast flow, we're gonna have to wait until at least tomorrow most likely to gain some confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 I remember dick albert was the last Boston area forecaster to put out a 5 day and then the last one to put out a 7 day. Even to this day, 7 day forecasts are iffy considering how often the last two days change on them from day to day. But pressure from the public demands more not less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Pack would be a liberal interpretation of it in town right now...it's like 50/50 any serious cover (not talking about the inch of snow showers on the ground in themelted out areas). Pretty much 0-6" cover and some old big snowbanks in parking lots in town. If you get a lot of sun you have no snow...if you are shaded or wooded you might have 6". Up above 1,200ft is where it's more serious widespread pack of 6-10"+ That's pretty much how Southern Vermont is as well right now, at least around Mt Snow, but about 18" of cover was lost in about 10 days in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: That's pretty much how Southern Vermont is as well right now, at least around Mt Snow, but about 18" of cover was lost in about 10 days in that region. Yeah it increases quickly with height but for the mountain valleys it's pretty torched. Like my yard has 0-6" at 750ft while there's 18" at the 1,500ft stake...and 5 feet still above 3000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: why not? ego? skill? it's a profession? why not use all the tools available and go for it? it seems like everyone just looms at computer models anymore. it's not like you can get sued or anything. Maybe find a weather board that fits your needs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 hours ago, Albert A Clipper said: Gone are they days where mets would actually use skills to predict say 5-15 days out, these days they are model worshipers like the amateurs....anyone can interpret a model, where are the mets of yesteryear that would go out on a limb and state what thy think is going to happen based on knowledge an experience? DIT should have earned a met tag years ago, he calls them as he sees them and has been more accurate than most professionals though most of the past 6 seasons...yeah, there's some beer talking here, but FU mets, you're all worthless model worshipers these days..haha... Lost me at DIT, March 2012 ain't happening James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 29 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: So where would we...in this day and age....get a forecast? other than ABC, NBC, CBS, Accuweather....I mean....outside 3 days....a talented forecaster so to speak....dude. Lol. Pay up dude. Nothing in this world is free. Not even the pos "forecasts" disseminated by weather communicators (on-camera "meteorologists") for the msm are free. They are cheap though--to you as the consumer--and that's why they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 so that is James? Albert A Clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 IDK the recent tornado outbreak was nailed well in advance, Albert is looking for snow forecasts a week out. I am 60 and believe me accuracy has improved in the 3 to 5 days range, outside of that it's much better with patterns and airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Regarding this topic (which should probably be in banter), a met who works in their profession gets paid for their forecast. If you want a forecast from one of these professionals, I am sure they would be willing to take your money. This is a model discussion thread. People do, from time to time, make forecasts on here, but that is not really the purpose of this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lost me at DIT, March 2012 ain't happening James Why lost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Regarding this topic (which should probably be in banter), a met who works in their profession gets paid for their forecast. If you want a forecast from one of these professionals, I am sure they would be willing to take your money. This is a model discussion thread. People do, from time to time, make forecasts on here, but that is not really the purpose of this board Yeah if someone wants details for their backyard, gonna have to pay up. I did this for years professionally for specific towns. I think people who have been here awhile can read between the lines on where most mets stand. I can put a 7 day forecast on here but it's not going to be very accurate past day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 sign me up for the 18z GFS....Pretty snowy run though 168 hrs from the northern mid atlantic up through all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why lost? You hug. Tors and Morch 12 ,rough couple of weeks for you. Seriously now but best GEFS EPS have looked since our 22 inch in 5 days Feb run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 42 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: not at all, forecasters have more tools than ever at their disposal, but they hesitate more than ever to go out on a limb and make a call...every 12 hours it seems the computer changes, sometimes it would be nice for a professional to go with his or her gut...i'm not saying anything about old school, with today's technology, you should have more in the way of new "school", why do you take it so personally and call it a troll? it's constructive dialogue if nothing else, jesus, relax. Why do you need a specific forecast? With all the data available and the discussion of the data here you should get a pretty good idea what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe find a weather board that fits your needs? You guys have a doozy on your hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Is the EURO 00z 2 nights ago solution still on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Pretty weenie pattern on the 18z GFS. Gradient pattern but cold...almost 94-esque...though given its March a better analogy might be Mar '67 or Mar '97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You hug. Tors and Morch 12 ,rough couple of weeks for you. Seriously now but best GEFS EPS have looked since our 22 inch in 5 days Feb run Um... there were Tors and I never forecast 2012. That's horse coc k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 I typically don't Chime in much, mainly because I just don't simply have the time to post before others have already deciphered the data in a manner to which I agree. If I disagree adamantly, like the analysis of Patricia's landfall intensity, I feel inclined to offer my own best educated guess based on my own experience in the field. All that being said, it's important to realize the main reason todays forecasters rely so heavily on the models is that this technology far exceeds any humans capability to process all the data in any comparable manner. Why in the world would any old-school forecaster even attempt to do so? To me, that would be more ego-driven and foolhardy. The science has advanced so much in the past 20-25 years, not only the advances in computer modeling, but also a greater understanding of the various teleconnections involved, that it's imperative that the old-school/long-time forecasters have had to grow with the science. As such, they/we appreciate these advances, and in many respects, it has become more of a model analysis endeavor. But, that doesn't take away from the methods to to which forecasters today and yesteryear developed their respective forecasts. Simply put, computer modeling has taken much of the time out of hand-drawn mapping and crunches the data in a way that forecasters of prior generations could only dream about. It's a complete misunderstanding for one to imply too broadly that operational forecasting has evolved into model interpretation, and not appreciating the same general operational methods are still used to decipher the atmosphere (i.e. such as recognizing where the models are not initialized correctly or where it's evolution isn't meteorogically sound). I will add that meteorology will always remain an inexact science for the atmosphere is far too vast and complex. With that in mind, it's truly amazing how far medium and long-range forecasting has come. This increase in relative forecast accuracy is directly attributable to the advancement of computer modeling. Lastly, any responsible meteorologist is mindful of the effect their forecasts have on the general public. Consequently, they should always take a measured and conservative approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: sign me up for the 18z GFS....Pretty snowy run though 168 hrs from the northern mid atlantic up through all of SNE Yea, thats one way to get above normal wrt snowfall for us. A good belly to belly wknd takes my winter grade up 5 pts to an 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 492dm thickness on the euro next Saturday. I don't need another weekend ruined by brutal cold again...no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: 492dm thickness on the euro next Saturday. I don't need another weekend ruined by brutal cold again...no thanks. Look on the bright side. Maybe it killed ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Look on the bright side. Maybe it killed ticks. My chickens can kill the ticks and convert their parasitic wretchedness into nice yolks. I don't have much to add beyond what everyone else has said, but it definitely looks active over the next couple of weeks. It's probably not a bad thing to be progged safely into the cold side of the gradient at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: My chickens can kill the ticks and convert their parasitic wretchedness into nice yolks. I don't have much to add beyond what everyone else has said, but it definitely looks active over the next couple of weeks. It's probably not a bad thing to be progged safely into the cold side of the gradient at this point. If you're ever in need to let them "spread their wings" so to speak, they'd have a party on my parents lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Um... there were Tors and I never forecast 2012. That's horse coc k Last severe fail and oh yes you did we bump if necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 18z GEFS is even further north with the clipper than 12z. Would be mostly wet for anyone south of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, dendrite said: 492dm thickness on the euro next Saturday. I don't need another weekend ruined by brutal cold again...no thanks. If a foot of snow preceded it you might break all time March low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 18z GEFS is even further north with the clipper than 12z. Would be mostly wet for anyone south of NNE. Big differences at h5 between 12z EPS @ 120 hr and 18z GEFS @ 114 hr. Euro much colder and no clipper. I'll go with a blend of the two, which to me means some snow for SNE and a low further south than what the GEFS is showing. The GFS and GEFS have been all over the place lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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