8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 If it's well above average for the next 6 weeks then having winter last roughly a week here will be okay. Boston will still end up below average snow wise if don't see anything further but as long as we aren't staring down 40 and rain for weeks on end it will tolerable. Long off season though if we don't see plowable snow until mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Snowfal wise it was ok. Having two major events really helps in that dept. But, the other metrics like days of snow otg and temps sucked. If it sucks from here on out, another reason for a thumbs down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Just sayin NAM has that clipper as a strong Vort max Not gonna happen, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah GFS rips off a nice 3-5" stripe for all of SNE. Solid advisory event. Then it's got the system next week , more south and sheared with some 2ndary bagginess. Interesting turn Live by the GFS...die by the GFS. Maybe incorporate the euro more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Sat AM is looking pretty damn cold again. Sub 492dm thickness over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 AWT ..GFS finally wakes up realizing there is no snow event Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Amazing how models back off a potential good look. IO convection not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Amazing how models back off a potential good look. IO convection not helping. Good from far, far from good. Maybe St. Patty's day will offer up something. This winter gives me the vibe of one last parting shot before it rides off into the sunset. Just my feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Good from far, far from good. Maybe St. Patty's day will offer up something. This winter gives me the vibe of one last parting shot before it rides off into the sunset. Just my feeling. This winter has a better shot of pulling a Lucy and taking the football away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 We went from it's coming to 2012 morch in no time flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: We went from it's coming to 2012 morch in no time flat. It's not 2012 and there's always the chance of a bowling ball in late season. It's just the tenor of this winter. At least we had a fun two weeks. Best chance of anything is later on as things relax and jet gets less excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I don't know what we've learned about the models this year. Fast flow mayhem? A new normal related to climate change? predictable tendencies? It used to be that you could factor in certain things...Euro will tend to be right on coastals, GFS will be too far SE but will catch up later, NOGAPS west is a strong sign, If Uncle follows Euro its money in the bank. Don't know what to believe now. Is this an anomalous pattern or have we entered a period of unpredictability? It does seem that the extremes are the new normal, in either direction. I am happy winter is not returning in a big way. We have to move and then our house gets built as soon as the ground is dried out enough. Bring the thaw. I do worry about what has been happening a lot lately (tracks with the extremes) which is that we lose peaches because they bud too early and then get zapped, and we lose apples even some years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 So much for snow88s and his weenie mets mega blocking call. Short lived at best on the ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So much for snow88s and his weenie mets mega blocking call. Short lived at best on the ens. Just like that, it's ovah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Ive been also on the edge of my seat since 2014 awaiting the strat warming from Cohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Just like that, it's ovah? Its there but nothing like the hype train and it gets blown up pretty easily imo. Just not that great of a look to this rookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Amazing how models back off a potential good look. IO convection not helping. Good. Bring on Spring. Get some yard cleanup done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Good. Bring on Spring. Get some yard cleanup done. Sping, my yard cleanup was done Friday and Saturday, absolutely beautiful days, just have the gardens to do. We will have a strong taste of winter this weekend and probably again to end the month but it's coming. Hopefully not days and days of backdoors as Canada will be loaded with snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 The stratosphere: Using products available to the public it was never suggested that any warm intrusion/mass in the mid and upper stratospheric altitudes of the PV were actually downward-welling/propagating anomalies; that's key in that particular correlation. Without that behavior, the correlation is vague at best. Either, some folks don't really understand that (coming from a position of reputation or not), or, others may interpret stratosphere statements wrongly. The pattern: ...yes, agreed ... but, the 'backing off' began yesterday. There's no surprises overnight - or shouldn't be... For one, that tendency of modulating signals in the late middle to extended ranges away from cooler arguments (manifested as abolishing blocking perhaps even faster than it was ever constructed) has been a recurrent theme, played out over and over and over again all season long - not always, but the majority of winter's journey. In early retrospect - for me anyway - this year has been about a warm year that found ways to spike cold just in the nick of times. So be it, good night at casino and the ole weather roulette wheel. ...I think you could take this year's exact base-line tendency/state...and roll the same dice, but the next time you'll come up with a real stinker... Opinion: Moving forward, I really don't buy any cold/stormy solution from here on out. The burden of proof is an onus hugely earned by the atmosphere and the models charged with conveying what it is going to do. That means, put up or shut up. And, now that the sun is climbing, days are lengthening, it's been 74 once, and probably about to be 70 again tomorrow, and the blocking is now evacuated like a Trade tower ... who is really waiting around to hear the next sales pitch. Could it happen (as in ...anything wintry)? Of course...even in the worst of years, you don't stow the shovel to shed until the end of April. But setting expectations accordingly, this languishing in this crap is now relegated to extreme tedium and in a word, boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sping, my yard cleanup was done Friday and Saturday, absolutely beautiful days, just have the gardens to do. We will have a strong taste of winter this weekend and probably again to end the month but it's coming. Hopefully not days and days of backdoors as Canada will be loaded with snow and cold. BD season is a b**ch but we deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Snowfal wise it was ok. Having two major events really helps in that dept. But, the other metrics like days of snow otg and temps sucked. If it sucks from here on out, another reason for a thumbs down. Was def better in the interior. Snow cover was actually pretty decent given the temps. It was messy but not too far below normal for days with snow cover so far. If we whiff in March mostly then it will get a worse grade. December actually was kind of sneaky for snow cover days back in the interior hills (though of course Christmas was bare, lol) while it was garbage for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Was def better in the interior. Snow cover was actually pretty decent given the temps. It was messy but not too far below normal for days with snow cover so far. If we whiff in March mostly then it will get a worse grade. December actually was kind of sneaky for snow cover days back in the interior hills (though of course Christmas was bare, lol) while it was garbage for the coast. About 10 days ago I posted that, even if we did not see another flake, this winter would rate a B for snow, thanks to a pair of 21" events, tall pack, and 101" to date (avg is 88.) Other than a few flakes Sunday, we've been flakeless, and that appears to continue into next week. (GYX hinting at some snow early in week.) A warm snowless March/April would pull my temp grade down to D and the overall down to C-level. However, a winter with at least 115% of avg (and more than twice last year's) won't earn a below avg mark from me. For most of NNE (excepting some skunk spots in NH and especially VT) it's been a good season for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Was def better in the interior. Snow cover was actually pretty decent given the temps. It was messy but not too far below normal for days with snow cover so far. If we whiff in March mostly then it will get a worse grade. December actually was kind of sneaky for snow cover days back in the interior hills (though of course Christmas was bare, lol) while it was garbage for the coast. Yeah December certainly was much better inland out by ORH for sure. It just felt like anytime we tried to get going..something would come along and ruin the fun. But, if I look at it from a standpoint of getting two storms of 12+...I can't complain in that dept for sure. That boosts it. At least last winter just as you were about to head to the Tobin, something came along. Jan, the Feb events with cold in between, late March..and the April snows. I know it was exponentially worse inland..just speaking locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 Heh... the little critter that won't die on any guidance that has no believability ... just to rub it in? interesting. 12z NAM has a solid 4" for CT/RI outta that Fri sneak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... the little critter that won't die on any guidance that has no believability ... just to rub it in? interesting. 12z NAM has a solid 4" for CT/RI outta that Fri sneak Cutest lil guy on the 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 well, there goes that. Nam on its own now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: well, there goes that. Nam on its own now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Not gonna happen, james. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 It's a short blast but that's a real deal cold shot sat am on the gfs. -25c @850 to the south coast. -30s at the Canadian border...May moderate as we get closer but that's a pretty cold look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not gonna happen, james. So you're saying there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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