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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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Wouldn't shock me if a good chunk of March we end up rolling snake eyes. Could envision cold cutter cold scenario playing out. The good news is we are at the end of winter for the most part so I doubt anyone will get their underwear in a knot if that played out like that.

I think we made the most out of a pretty lousy pattern overall.

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5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Wouldn't shock me if a good chunk of March we end up rolling snake eyes. Could envision cold cutter cold scenario playing out. The good news is we are at the end of winter for the most part so I doubt anyone will get their underwear in a knot if that played out like that.

I think we made the most out of a pretty lousy pattern overall.

Given the lack of blocking just about anywhere in the high latitudes for most of this winter along with a strong and westward placed SE ridge, we've done pretty well.

Way too early to know much about the fate of March though. It's easy to say we'll throw in the towel every time the OP Euro shows an ugly cutter at day 8, but the reality is we will likely not see our next snow threat until inside of 7 days. I remember even last year, a ton of peeps (including lot of twitter posts by mets) decided to announce the arrival of spring in the first couple weeks of March only to get pantsed by mother nature with a good snow event on 3/21 and then back to back snow events in early April that coincided with record cold. We're still over 3 weeks away from astronomical spring, so I'd probably keep the shovel handy a little longer.

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It seems like the 'pattern' just keeps going back to rolling those big-ass pinwheels down the Canadian Pacific coast at least excuse imaginable.  ... That's the general Pacific circulation doing that - of course.  

One upshot, we're correcting droughts at west.  

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Friday's "clipper" is a meat grinder system...nobody's getting much of anything out of that. Maybe some snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic.

Well that's if you believe the Euro

Lets see if the GFS eventually goes towards the Euro or the Euro goes towards the GFS.

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People should keep the shovel handy in New England until May  -- even in the worst of times.  

It's just that some years there's a palpable sense about where things that are going that's harder to ignore.  

I remember the antithesis to this, ...and there have been a few, sure.  1996 kept snowing into April.  2005 ( I think it was...) kept going ... days would get back close to 50 with winter storm watches going up for the next night... 

I'm not sure what that is, and the 'feel' of the thing is of course less than ideally scientific (to put it nicely).  interesting...  But this is one of those candidates -

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Well that's if you believe the Euro

Lets see if the GFS eventually goes towards the Euro or the Euro goes towards the GFS.

Or just about every other piece of non-GFS guidance. GFS already ticked south at 12z compared to the two previous runs and the Euro didn't tick north...we know where this one is going....straight to the meat grinder.

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One other annoying trait of this winter has been the aversion to split flow....we've had a hard time getting it. This can often act in place of high latitude blocking. We sort of achieved this in the Jan 23 event, though because it occurred in such a putrid longwave pattern, we didn't have any type of an airmass to work with. But it still yielded that sleet/snow event regardless.

 

With some split flow, this would be a really nice pattern with a cold Canada. But it's been like pulling teeth to get it.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One other annoying trait of this winter has been the aversion to split flow....we've had a hard time getting it. This can often act in place of high latitude blocking. We sort of achieved this in the Jan 23 event, though because it occurred in such a putrid longwave pattern, we didn't have any type of an airmass to work with. But it still yielded that sleet/snow event regardless.

 

With some split flow, this would be a really nice pattern with a cold Canada. But it's been like pulling teeth to get it.

Just me ... but I believe firmly that 'aversion' was in large part because the southern heights were never receded... They are/were compressed S at times.  But the atmosphere has a sort of elasticity to it (we covered this in FAST).  

This was a bit of an exercise in that happening. In lock-step, the south expands or recedes, as the N ebbs and tides lower heights S.  It fits (then) that it would be difficult for the flow to split with that going on...  

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just me ... but I believe firmly that 'aversion' was in large part because the southern heights were never receded... They are/were compressed S at times.  But the atmosphere has a sort of elasticity to it (we covered this in FAST).  

This was a bit of an exercise in that happening. In lock-step, the south expands or recedes, as the N ebbs and tides lower heights S.  It fits (then) that it would be difficult for the flow to split with that going on...  

Yes...the composite image of the winter I posted last page shows this well...it was particularly impregnable in the eastern U.S. The SE ridge was very stout...moreso than anywhere else in that latitude belt that had a lot of high heights going back into the Pacific.

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47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or just about every other piece of non-GFS guidance. GFS already ticked south at 12z compared to the two previous runs and the Euro didn't tick north...we know where this one is going....straight to the meat grinder.

It must be nice to live in Snow88's fantasy world. Maybe we can all go visit him one day....

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23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would match the overall tenor of the season.  Any update on the little critter next week?

It's likely a no show ... As others have noted (rightfully so.. ) the flow is manically compressed (seemingly at all times); the correction for that is less, and seeing no other guidance really carry that feature, I suspect it's a matter of time before the GFS caves.

That said... yeah, sometimes models score coups - but as you say, the tenor of the winter:  coups don't break favorably for us this year.  It's just the way the cookie crumbles this time.

You know, not that you or anyone asked ... but, for the 3 year average, we are still way way absurdly above because of 2015... Kind of puts things into perspective -

Can't snow big every year. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes...the composite image of the winter I posted last page shows this well...it was particularly impregnable in the eastern U.S. The SE ridge was very stout...moreso than anywhere else in that latitude belt that had a lot of high heights going back into the Pacific.

Know what ...? 

I remember clearly 1998 - 2001 there was a problem with that feature popping back up the least excuse, much in the same way.  

   (although as I've mentioned elsewhere, heights from the subtropical Pac extending the whole way are modestly positive in nature but...could be related to the same thing).

What's common between then and this era?  ...  worth considering... The Caribbean is the warm enso dumpster - 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah GFS rips off a nice 3-5" stripe for all of SNE. Solid advisory event. Then it's got the system next week , more south and sheared with some 2ndary bagginess. Interesting turn 

Thought you hated the GFS?  That no met should ever use it.

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