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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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I think the idea of "winter reload" bandied about recently doesn't necessarily require the change be very extreme - in whatever form it takes.

In some minds, with any change it is best to have the new paradigm be less warm than it was during this last week, up through yesterday (Saturday).  Anything cooler as a pattern regime/characteristic probably qualifies to those individuals - ha ha.

But more objectively, in my mind ... to be a winter reload, the dailies should come down to normal, with 'tolerance' AN given to GW and a head nod to perturbation allowance. But of course 'winter reload' is a phrase endemic to forum world, less a scientifically derived.  Preeety sure you're not going to find that term in the AMS catalogue.  I'd say, for the purposes of at least striving for cogent conjecture, the term should really only imply, when a pattern movement bears some semblance to normalcy (after perhaps being qualitatively AN).

I think we're going to succeed in doing that much.

As a side note, warm bust season (another phrase... oy) begins around the 15th of February (which by the way is the end of the annual solar minimum months). That invented terminology basically means, any perfect heating day from now until about mid summer (when climate and machine guidance catch up to one another), will tend to verify some 1 to 3 or 5 ... degrees F above MOS'.  That's also part of the 'allowance' thing above...

Anyway, as far where we are, the reload looks really like it takes place in stages.  The shot across the bow for that came through in a whoosh last evening with those gusty showers. Now, we enjoy laminar flow of cold... But, it's been modeled for days ..at this point inarguably so, that this will roll-over to unabated WAA; in fact, so unabated there really isn't much WAA at all. The entire column/medium from Cincinnati OH to Portland ME will just up and move out, collaterally in time with the advance of a well mixed warm sector.  

That's an interesting... albeit tedious characteristic about the synoptic evolution for mid week.  Huge, huge synoptic scale sensible impact weather changes are rarer?  Those sort of things are usually reserved more for the meso scaled phenom.  Like, BD's ...Chinook heat blasts.... Blue Northers...etc...

Equally as prominent and almost as hard to deny is the cold coming next weekend that Will and others have alluded.  THAT cold air mass would be (hypothetically) the one servicing our GEFs derived, teleconnector signal for the first week of March. 

About that, .. the signal is still there.  Whether it materializes on the 5th or the 7th into the 8th bares less relevance to the cogency of the talking point.  At this time range, "signals" can oscillate in a spatial-temporal bath-tub of probabilities, ... I'd suggest if nothing materialize at all between the 3rd and the 10th then we can debate why nothing happened.   Which, by the way, not all signals produce; it's possible nothing does.  There are other aspects if not limitations to consider there.

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John....def. agree that the cooling takes place incrementally....it will be gradual.

Ha, yeah thx... 

Thing is, smoldering in the tenor (it's just out there), if perhaps even fabricated in my own mind to be terribly honest, is a sense that there is a back-draft of attitudes just waiting for the door of disappointment to open, to just explode 'SEEeee'.  

Part of it is to convey potential while preemptively laying the ground work for the shutting of numb-nut activated ...dysfunctional pie-holes. Lord knows it will only be some percentage successful; there will always be those that lampoon cogent arguers based upon their own disappointment, and/or formulate an impression of said arguer that is ultimately utterly unfair and based solely on their own disillusioned...

j/k

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Everything you have conveyed is still iron clad, whether we see another flake or not.

I'd love more snow, but this winter has been ok, as is.....I just don't want one of those cold, dry and windy March months that I have had so often of late.

I'd rather flip back to warm..hopefully any failure of the pattern to deliver take place quickly, and is not tediously protracted over a month of day teners'

Terrible-

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I must be missing something... this week looks pretty mild overall... not as warm as the last few days... but it still doesn't look like anything that resembles winter.

Not this coming week, the next. We have spoken at length about how the transition is slow.

This week is seasonably mild, as opposed to this past week's swamp-shorts.

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I must be missing something... this week looks pretty mild overall... not as warm as the last few days... but it still doesn't look like anything that resembles winter.

This week always was gonna be mild. Not sure what Jerrys missing.. but the winter returns Fri. The dates have always been Morch 4/5-15 and then true late spring /early summer temps like we just had are here for good

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15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I must be missing something... this week looks pretty mild overall... not as warm as the last few days... but it still doesn't look like anything that resembles winter.

Yeah...as Ray said the big cold shot comes next weekend. It's a potent shot as modeled right now, but it doesn't look anything like Mar 2007. There's still time for it to moderate a bit too, but regardless, it looks much colder and favorable going forward. Climo temps are steadily climbing now so a -15C airmass with good mixing in March can still get you up into the 30s. A favorable snow pattern that time of year reminds me of out west sometimes. 45-50F and warm sun one day and then pounding snow at 28F the next. Peak cover season is about kaput here barring some March madness so I'd prefer it plays out like that. Give me a bomb and then wipe it out in a few days. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There's a cutter risk after next weekend so I wouldn't herald the winter hounds at all. I think the best shot of anything is actually after that...deeper into March, ironically.

There's always a cutter risk. We'll take chances with that look. Certainly a decent  look. Better than this mild week which everyone and their brother saw 

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GEFS are actually pretty far north with the clipper like the OP was for Friday. Euro hasn't been hitting but then again GFS didn't until today.

I agree with Tip that we can really stretch the "signal" to at least the 10th...perhaps even a bit longer. Scooter mentioned how things actually get a bit deeper for trough in east as we go further into month. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS are actually pretty far north with the clipper like the OP was for Friday. Euro hasn't been hitting but then again GFS didn't until today.

I agree with Tip that we can really stretch the "signal" to at least the 10th...perhaps even a bit longer. Scooter mentioned how things actually get a bit deeper for trough in east as we go further into month. 

Plus you figure as long as you don't have a March 2012 pattern...have a cold Canada and anything can happen late month. Hopefully next week isn't a cutter.

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To be fair to the warmhearted folk -

wow that is a truly impressive warm sector look for Wednesday...  If anything, that push looks warmer than the yesterday's both thermodynamic, and sensibly... We'll see... 

You know - it may have been modeled this way, fine ..but, I'm actually impressed how mild-like it feels today. 

Perhaps this early shot will pay off for cold when the wind dies off and we decouple tonight.  Similar to last week, the Monday morning to Wednesday afternoon difference was 20F to 66!  Euro looks warmer than 66 on Wednesday... that is, if the skies acquiesce to sun and the wind doesn't go too much into a S direction.

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To be fair to the warmhearted folk -

wow that is a truly impressive warm sector look for Wednesday...  If anything, that push looks warmer than the yesterday's both thermodynamic, and sensibly... We'll see... 

You know - it may have been modeled this way, fine ..but, I'm actually impressed how mild-like it feels today. 

Perhaps this early shot will pay off for cold when the wind dies off and we decouple tonight.  Similar to last week, the Monday morning to Wednesday afternoon difference was 20F to 66!  Euro looks warmer than 66 on Wednesday... if the skies open up and the wind does go too S.

 

Might be a toned down repeat 3/6-7.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Might be a toned down repeat 3/6-7.

The thought did cross my mind ...but ...I suspect if that siggy gets cut down in that time range, it's more seasonal off-set than mass field modulation.

There's too much support there from everything -  

Could still fail. The beast of burden in this fercockt hobby or profession is that even in the most certitude there's an element of uneasiness.  Barring the broader technological pantheon up and failing en masse, I don't think we're getting through that period unscathed.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The thought did cross my mind ...but ...I suspect if that siggy gets cut down in that time range, it's more seasonal off-set than mass field modulation.

There's too much support there from everything -  

Could still fail. The beast of burden in this fercockt hobby or profession is that even in the most certitude there's an element of uneasiness.  Barring the broader technological pantheon up and failing en masse, I don't think we're getting through that period unscathed.

The thing is it may take more time for the troffiness to dig deep enough and the resistance from the receding seasonal jet and the subtropical ridge which never really went away this winter looms.

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thing is it may take more time for the troffiness to dig deep enough and the resistance from the receding seasonal jet and the subtropical ridge which never really went away this winter looms.

That's a powerful argument ...  I cannot disagree, either.   I have been pounding the awareness drum all season

...More so, however, that it's more than just subtropical and/or SE ridging that's been that plague, just to add to that.

There are products out there that help elucidate this if folks care to look for them, but the entire girdle of heights that rings the hemisphere from south of Japan around to the Americas and eastward to west Africa have average2 some 2 to 5 DM higher than the 30-year mean height distribution. 

It's a subtle anomaly.  One that doesn't really even really show up in the sensitivity of those pretty colorized anomaly products that abound.  But it's been there ...at all times, creating resistance to the seasonal migration south colder heights from the N ... squeezing away.

Cause?  I don't know... could be in part GW...  could be in part left over heat budget off the super NINO.  Could be all attributed to either.  Who knows -  It would take a lot of computational analysis to blame anything with veracity. 

What I do believe is that as the seasonal migration south of colder winter heights began to umbrella the NH last autumn...the unyielding height wall in the deep south - everywhere - caused unusually steep gradient and very fast wind velocities in between the impulses...

The discussion gets too mathematical for the average reader so I'll stop there (the Mets and clever hobbyists know what happens next), but too much screaming wind at all times mutes storm genesis - certainly residence times in any location.  You may get the same frequency, but with less bombs... You end up with more shredded systems in the means, and shearing in general is harder to overcome.  ...

Truth be told, it's one reason why I've been careful to remind along the way, that not all signals produce... This whole discussion point is a particularly compelling reason if someone wants to rely upon it. 

I'm just not sure I'm willing to do so at the moment.

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Nice cutter 3/6-7 on most guidance.  Sands of time are running out.   Telling to me is comparing the last 6 runs of the EPS.   Just looking st SV snow totals shows how it's changed.  Fairly robust in the 12Z runs Friday 2/24 but backed off in SNE run to run and cointinues to do so.  We might have to rely on a Hail Mary here south of NH/VT/ME.

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