dendrite Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I feel like highs have been 10F to even 20F higher than even short range guidance this week. It's been crazy...and not just one day but like 3-4 in a row now. The 2m stuff is a complete joke. I mean at least MOS was spitting out mid to upper 50s. The op GFS was only about 30F too cold for a 6hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: The 2m stuff is a complete joke. I mean at least MOS was spitting out mid to upper 50s. The op GFS was only about 30F too cold for a 6hr forecast. Is it the snowpack it has problems with? Like there's snow on the ground so the model halts all mixing below like 925mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Is it the snowpack it has problems with? Like there's snow on the ground so the model halts all mixing below like 925mb? No idea. I mean, it used to struggle with sensing snowpack. There's really no excuse with keeping a 50mb layer adjacent to the sfc decoupled all afternoon like that with clear skies and low RH above the shallow inversion with SW flow down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 BTV hit 63F today and the thermometer at the Smuggs base lodge read 65F.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lord knows dates f with me ... but I'm preeeety sure he said it was 1956 - '56 is correct. I was 9 in march of 1956 and snow in my yard was at armpit level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Now that's it's ripe with no freezing until Sunday night.. she's gone. Gone like your undies in Ptown! you mean gone like your man-virginity at a rest stop on 84? the open fields on my land are half-melted due to their angle towards the increasing sun. The woods and shady areas will still be snow covered Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 4 hours ago, dendrite said: The GFS has seriously been on drugs this week up here. Another 6hr forecast valid 18z. I'm currently in the mid 50s. Lol. Look at this map, knowing Rochester NH hit 66 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Lol. Look at this map, knowing Rochester NH hit 66 today.You can't be at 66F, map says you should be 41F. Therefore actual readings are wrong. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: No. Look up 1956. I lived both. Had 24" snowstorms in March both years in NNJ - 18-19, 1956 and 21-22, 1958. First was 20s powder, 2nd was 31-32 paste. 34" at the stake this morning, will probably be under 30 by Sunday afternoon. But nobody lives there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 what the heck is the Nam doing with the squall line flip to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 what the heck is the Nam doing with the squall line flip to heavy snowReminds of something it did when it was the ETA. It was 72 one day in Feb and by the end of the day it was heavy snow. I remember (about 13 yrs or so ago) it was the only model showing this and it turned out to be right. We recieved a few inches. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Reminds of something it did when it was the ETA. It was 72 one day in Feb and by the end of the day it was heavy snow. I remember (about 13 yrs or so ago) it was the only model showing this and it turned out to be right. We recieved a few inches. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Yea its pretty crazy and on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Had 24" snowstorms in March both years in NNJ - 18-19, 1956 and 21-22, 1958. First was 20s powder, 2nd was 31-32 paste. 34" at the stake this morning, will probably be under 30 by Sunday afternoon. But nobody lives there. Yes that's what I remember about '58-it was paste and given the calendar date somehow seemed less impactful. March of 1960 showed me a dud winter can roar back to life quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea its pretty crazy and on its own The 4km and 12km seem quite different for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: what the heck is the Nam doing with the squall line flip to heavy snow BOX at least gave it a nod rather than throwing a straight jacket on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 See y'all until at least March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 8 hours ago, powderfreak said: Is it the snowpack it has problems with? Like there's snow on the ground so the model halts all mixing below like 925mb? 7 hours ago, dendrite said: No idea. I mean, it used to struggle with sensing snowpack. There's really no excuse with keeping a 50mb layer adjacent to the sfc decoupled all afternoon like that with clear skies and low RH above the shallow inversion with SW flow down to the surface. It's the snow cover in the model. If you find model snow depth at 0 hour, you'll see the odd 2 m temp anomalies are where the model says there's snow. There may also be an issue with the winter equations vs. summer (that will flip sometime next month). I mean there is a difference between checking to see if there's snow on the ground and reducing mixing, and this (which appears to be a more binary yes/no on mixing with snow on the ground). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 0Z gfs has alot of blocking with 3 chances of snowfall. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Any mets comment on cold/stormy pattern later next week and beyond.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 T-storms firing along this warmfront in SNH as it pushes north. Hit a spring-like downpour on my way into work. Temps are going to skyrocket into the mid to upper 60's once this pushes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any mets comment on cold/stormy pattern later next week and beyond.. It's possible. About all you can say. Nothing is absolute. Could be misses...could be hits...could be mix to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any mets comment on cold/stormy pattern later next week and beyond.. Cautiously optimistic. My hunch is that is pattern that strongly favors miller b cyclogenesis with best chances impacting eastern sections of NNE, particularly ME, due to disturbances not amplifying much until hitting the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's possible. About all you can say. Nothing is absolute. Could be misses...could be hits...could be mix to rain. There's seriously people who think the torch continues unabated from here on out. You feel embarrassed for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There's seriously people who think the torch continues unabated from here on out. You feel embarrassed for them I don't see anything that screams a return to deep winter though. Still looks AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There's seriously people who think the torch continues unabated from here on out. You feel embarrassed for them It's the public. They rush for winter to end after the holidays anyway. They don't know anything about met and climo so who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Does anyone buy the progged -nao coming up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don't see anything that screams a return to deep winter though. Still looks AN After Morch 4th or so there's a BN 7-10 day period modeled. That doesn't mean a week of 20's as normals are in the 40's. Late Morch the furnace returns for good. So it's a fairly short window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don't see anything that screams a return to deep winter though. Still looks AN I don't see anything that shows above normal after about D7 or 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't see anything that shows above normal after about D7 or 8. BN looks fairly solid at that time and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't see anything that shows above normal after about D7 or 8. 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BN looks fairly solid at that time and beyond. I thought he was talking about next week...but after that, nice flood of cold air on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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