Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah.. yours is gone too. A week of 40's and 50's and above freezing at night will take its toll. Good 2 weeks though at least Lawn thread 2017 in the works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Living in extremes nowadays. It's an all or nothing climate shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 After next week torch, it does get back to a stormy look again in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: After next week torch, it does get back to a stormy look again in the 11-15 day. What's the approximate length of stay (start / end time) for the next warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Yeah honestly I don't trust anything more than 5 days out, a week ago many of us were still thinking we'd never snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: The 6z GFS was close to something bigger. 12z Nam printing out, 1.6" qpf here Weds-Thurs........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam printing out, 1.6" qpf here Weds-Thurs........lol 06z GEFS were 1"+ for 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam printing out, 1.6" qpf here Weds-Thurs Just got finished digging out. The tractor got a workout. Time to focus on Wed/Thurs I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 06z GEFS were 1"+ for 24h. That's pretty good, Looked like 06z GFS has 1.4" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Digityman said: Just got finished digging out. The tractor got a workout. Time to focus on Wed/Thurs I guess. Could be similar to this one...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's pretty good, Looked like 06z GFS has 1.4" qpf Has the look of an amped up Inv trough right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Has the look of an amped up Inv trough right now.Yeah it looks like ULL is interacting with the offshore low as it moves by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 Yeah...it's a near-miss phase "as is" in recent guidance ... beautifully illustrated in this 12z NAM evolution, continuing ... That's interesting there to get that deep of a 500 mb result and only have a paltry 990's mb low... Which, unfortunately means that future guidance will have to be monitored. The clock is ticking though...and the models may simply have the right idea on that. It could simply just go down as a smeared failure - next. I actually thought when I saw the orientation of the N and S streams be more favorable in the GFS' 18z run yesterday, for phasing ...that a trend could easily ensue but it seems the antithesis happened smartly upon making that observation - heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 12z GFS looks a bite better than 06z with the ULL orientation and the southern s/s being a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah.. yours is gone too. A week of 40's and 50's and above freezing at night will take its toll. Good 2 weeks though at least There's no way he loses it...not from a few days in the 50s with lowish dewpoints. You never learn, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 LOL, what a crush job the GFS is for the same places in ME. 2"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Perhaps Brian, Gene and I will be too far west for this, but seems it might trend back in our favor while keeping Jeff and Eric and the other Mainers in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL, what a crush job the GFS is for the same places in ME. 2"+ QPF. Tamarack is gonna have a 60" pack at this pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL, what a crush job the GFS is for the same places in ME. 2"+ QPF. If you don't mind, how does it look back into NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Tamarack is gonna have a 60" pack at this pace. The trend is there for that area to get walloped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL, what a crush job the GFS is for the same places in ME. 2"+ QPF. It's do or die for the models ... today - I give them the benefit of the doubt do to the whole phasing headache and that even in today's vaster by comparison modeling technology,...that specific type of handling is way hugely complex to expect accuracy even in the mid ranges... By tonight, we're talking 4th ...5th ...6th period stuff so if it ain't got it by then, it would take a pretty spectacular model catastrophe if it still happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z GFS looks a bite better than 06z with the ULL orientation and the southern s/s being a bit faster. Another 1'+ for Eastern ME. My father has a cabin an hour NE of Bangor I can't wait to see his pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: If you don't mind, how does it look back into NH? Looks best for the Lakes Region in NH and poins N up into the Whites. Maybe advisory snows in S/C NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's do or die for the models ... today - I give them the benefit of the doubt do to the whole phasing headache and that even in today's vaster by comparison modeling technology,...that specific type of handling is way hugely complex to expect accuracy even in the mid ranges... By tonight, we're talking 4th ...5th ...6th period stuff though, so if it ain't got it by then, it would take a pretty delicious modeling error if it still happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The trend is there for that area to get walloped again. Yeah this is pretty classic for them. They can get on these patterns up there where they just keep getting hammered. That interior ME snowpack might take a long time to melt. They will probably exceed the pack they had in March 2014 when I was up there skiing. They had about 4 feet or a little more on the level down at town elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks best for the Lakes Region in NH and poins N up into the Whites. Maybe advisory snows in S/C NH. thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Maybe we can sneak out 1-3 or 2-4 in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe we can sneak out 1-3 or 2-4 in SNE? GFS is spitting out nada until you hit the N ORH hills or W Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS is spitting out nada until you hit the N ORH hills or W Berks. Verbatim. But I will keep an eye on it. Could trend a little better but I don't think SNE is getting anything siggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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