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CoastalWx

Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a suspicion that if it 'lulls' ...that's the end, and as this thing wraps up, bombogen legit incarnate, it will do so, so tightly that the CCB mechanics are initially constricted and not spread back west until it the system matures beyond the RI phase of development  - ...after which, yeah, if the storm is slowly translating out it may span west briefly before being out of reach. 

I know this thing's all super romantic and all...but, the base vector of motion is still west to east, and I don't see much evidence of retrograde patterning in this whole ordeal.

To correct for this and make me only look wrong in face of clad theoretical application ... (eh hm) would be for this thing to really bomb faster? 

Seriously, that's plausible, even at 30 or so hour lead, that that the low really takes off more like 50 Mi E of ACY  and the punches a whole in the troposphere heading just off the Cape ...which might be some 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule, but a huge difference maker in actually getting some wickedness in time.

 

this is what I am wishing for (the last paragraph) and it is one of the scenarios I have in my mind for something epic to really ever happen here in ctrv

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

I recall a system in the big winter couple years ago that had a freakish late development to the point may were on the fence 12 hrs out if this was going to happen. Will probably remembers but it ended up going gang busters and rocking E MA with about 3 hrs ob blizzard conditions say 5-8 am or so. Wish i could remember the disco late that nite when they finally gave it all systems go.

Mid level madness. Great storm.

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4 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Here's the new one.  Bumped up a bit for most for cities.

b0Ory4X.png

Getting close to rivaling the Feb 2013 Blizzard

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Getting close to rivaling the Feb 2013 Blizzard

Which gave Farmington all off 8.8"; I had a couple more.  Would take a serious bust to not exceed that by far.

 Going big. Not sure where to put it all.

Today's 7" (and counting, but not much more) 35:1 fluffernutter brought the pack to 33", though by the time things get going tomorrow it will probably have settled under 30.  Noted a hurricane force wind warning for Monday in the GOM, winds 55-65 kt.  Don't see that too often.

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Which gave Farmington all off 8.8"; I had a couple more.  Would take a serious bust to not exceed that by far.

 Going big. Not sure where to put it all.

Today's 7" (and counting, but not much more) 35:1 fluffernutter brought the pack to 33", though by the time things get going tomorrow it will probably have settled under 30.  Noted a hurricane force wind warning for Monday in the GOM, winds 55-65 kt.  Don't see that too often.



I had 3.3" and now another band is here, this is going to be a fun 2 days

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BTV WRF is virtual all snow even at BOS. I think just inland where it stays all snow, but close enough for temps to be 32-33 may have some power issues...especially as winds increase near dawn Monday. Could be a lot of weight on those trees and wires. 

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just asking if any here has a weather radio  and did your alarm went off today mine didnt go off today but went off for test on wed  i live in northern ct area .

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Comparing 18z RGEM / 18z NAM / 12z Euro... 850T's are very similar at 3z-6z Monday and plenty cold... the odd man out is the 18z RGEM with > 0C 925T just kissing Boston between 3z-6z Monday.

One reason, ironically, might be the sooner (ie. slightly further west as it passes south of CT/RI) and deeper development of the surface low and associated WAA mechanisms on the RGEM compared to the NAM / Euro at 3z.

But RGEM is odd man out and 0z suite will be hugely telling... we are very close to all snow in Boston.

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49 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

They will. Kind of a no brainer not to think Blizzard threshold will not be achieved. Like the past storm numerous locations surpassed and never in watch or warning for blizzard. WSW or Blizzard, either way it's going to rip!

They state in the evening's AFD that its such a close call with the CCB Monday Am, that they will wait to decide. Should guidance move slightly west with Monday's action that will hoist em, otherwise they will probably stand pat thru tommorrow afternoon.

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Does anyone know how this compares to the 2/15/15 snowstorm, the one with the thunder snow in Plymouth and insane rates occurring early in the morning? I thought that band of intense snow backed in from the east. Out in the gulf of Maine.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I kind of agree that this is either going to overperform, or just whiff with the CCB....concerned about that. 

unless there is a major model fail or last moment trend to torch the BL we are getting warning snows Tommorrow regardless. SO looks like 6-10 or so from that. It looks like it may have some weight to it in our locale's. I know you know its snowing tomorrow just mentioning it.

Then ya....who knows what we grab from the Bombing Coastal seems like 2-12" is on the table. My guess would be 6 to 8 inches from that from say 1am to Noon Monday but confidence is almost medium in that for me. 

I would go 10-16" to start off here... and adjust (obviously) based on 0z model runs. 

I honestly think the ceiling on this thing for NE mass is 2' or so

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32 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

reading between the lines in box discussion the 6 plus is nowhere near set in stone for more southern interior areas, tremendous concern and they do not seem to enthusiastic about a heavy waa thump unless I am missing something

I would think you are good for 6-8", BOX discussion is obviously more confident N of Pike as there is still some uncertainty because temperatures are so borderline. 

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