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Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?


CoastalWx

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It's close enough that now-casting is utterly necessary ... lest we exercise in neolithic incompetence ..

Having said that, - if the CCB misses east that writing's been on the wall all along.  Collectively, a few here and there gave just homage to that possibility during the preceding days. However, sometimes... it's easier to just get lost in the weeds of what looks like the bigger deal, "cherry picking" positive signs and then losing track of some objectivity in doing so - which then lends to being "disappointed," when reality blows through the room of card houses..

This system never set well with me (not that anyone asked)...  The reason being is the general WNW to ESE vector of the total trough constructs.. .Not often that anyone gets a blizzard on that sort of trajectory - in fact, I can't even think of any off hand.  Truthfully, I didn't even see this front side WAA thump today as being part of this back four days ago when this got abruptly louder in the guidance tools.  At the time, I figured it was either going to be a late blooming clip-on the coast (maybe more if it detonated quicker), or a four day exercise in tease futility.  But... so be it as the time got into the end game this day's activity elucidated in the guidance.  Fine. We are lucky in a sense ... And if the CCB does evolve to include eastern zones, that's just a rarity playing out.   

As we said yesterday: the baseline trajectory is still west to east, and unless this thing actively stalls ...it becomes difficult to envision things reaching back west.  This thing really needs to detonated with extreme rapidity in order to do so in time.   And that sort of detail probably needs to be now-casted addtionally -

 

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4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yeah, I think this worth mentioning. I don't think we'll see crazy 15:1 or better ratios anywhere but I can see a little better than 10:1 (like 11-12:1) as you go farther N and W from Boston. I said it earlier but the soundings look pretty good and there is decent lift in the DGZ.

Here's the thing and peeps should remember previous storms. This crashes fast, ULL high ratio stuff. Big lift in the conveyor belt , the kind of stuff that can put down some great rates. Perhaps NE mass SNH Maine get smoked besides qpf queen stuff. Looks good in that zone. 

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Going 6-10 in my hood (Brookline) just outside of Boston city line... 4-6 from WAA today, 2-4 from transition / CCB overnight into Monday afternoon.

Relatively conservative but I think we need a dramatically improved nowcast to reverse the east ticks we've seen since yesterday. Between the warm 925Ts (and extrapolating from rain already reported in Boston) and missing the bulk of the CCB, I don't think I can go higher.

And doubt this 4am NWS map verifies (did not see it posted earlier), I'd love to be wrong:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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46 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Going 6-10 in my hood (Brookline) just outside of Boston city line... 4-6 from WAA today, 2-4 from transition / CCB overnight into Monday afternoon.

Relatively conservative but I think we need a dramatically improved nowcast to reverse the east ticks we've seen since yesterday. Between the warm 925Ts (and extrapolating from rain already reported in Boston) and missing the bulk of the CCB, I don't think I can go higher.

And doubt this 4am NWS map verifies (did not see it posted earlier), I'd love to be wrong:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Not sure where they got that map from.  Even 00z models weren't showing this much.

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14 minutes ago, MainePhotog said:

NWS Gray just posted blizzard warnings for mid coast Maine.

Going to be an interesting storm.

They dropped the Blizzard watch for Cumberland, I'm waiting to see what they say in the evening discussion update. I'm a little bummed at that, but we'll see as we get into the winds if we actually get into Blizzard conditions.

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