RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hazey said: Blizzard warning and storm surge warnings are up. 14"-22" with additional amounts Tuesday morning. Winds gusting to 65mph. Pounding waves will cause damage and some flooding along the shore line. A real monster for the province. Stay safe, good luck measuring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6z nam is warmer and mostly rain for the bottom 4 counties in the state. Wonder if guidance swung too far S and cold yesterday and is now revealing its true colors or this run too far N now. 6z rgem looks like noise mostly but a tick warmer at mid levels and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Rgem and GFS went colder. Something wrong with NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 We have been cut back to 6-9 here. A shadowing screw job is a concern in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Seems as though 06Z NAM misses a lot of E MA with the CCB too. Appears main reason is it takes longer to deepen the low. Not sure if that is just because its the NAM of its a red flag that the CCB may be a bust for E MA. Comparing 0z to 6Z RGEM, 6z a a hair deeper with the low but is a touch more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Can anyone comment on which one is the most reasonable for Rhode Island. My plow truck is in the show, and trying to figure things out. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Latest HRRR through 10pm tonight. CNE crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 powder i approve that hrrr map 8 LWM Jerry Bos went from 2" to 6" on "at least" and 14" on most likely http://www.weather.gov/box/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 59 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Seems as though 06Z NAM misses a lot of E MA with the CCB too. Appears main reason is it takes longer to deepen the low. Not sure if that is just because its the NAM of its a red flag that the CCB may be a bust for E MA. Comparing 0z to 6Z RGEM, 6z a a hair deeper with the low but is a touch more progressive CCB lite S. Maine Jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 3". Nothing will ever top that. 1978 laughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 1978 laughs But think of it from the time of year too. That was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: But think of it from the time of year too. That was incredible. True that...as was the Octobomb. Anyway, I hope the CCB gets going for you guys. Expecting much if anything for south of BOS on the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Latest HRRR through 10pm tonight. CNE crushed. Nice look for GC. Whoops hoo! I'll be driving home from Boston around 2:00. Expecting a slow go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: True that...as was the Octobomb. Anyway, I hope the CCB gets going for you guys. Expecting much if anything for south of BOS on the coast? Tough call. I think we could get some wet snow but is it 32F accumulating paste or 34F slop? I do think just inland will do the 32Fstuff. The GFS really gets the CCB cranking here in the morning. The other models are a bit too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 06z nam and 06z gfs are pretty far apart for early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z nam and 06z gfs are pretty far apart for early Monday. Very. Like, the opposite of what one would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z nam and 06z gfs are pretty far apart for early Monday. This feels like one of the tougher forecasts in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tough call. I think we could get some wet snow but is it 32F accumulating paste or 34F slop? I do think just inland will do the 32Fstuff. The GFS really gets the CCB cranking here in the morning. The other models are a bit too progressive. I'm surprised how aggressive NWS is hitting it around there. Their discussion has a fair amount of latitude and reasoning, but the general public is not reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said: I'm surprised how aggressive NWS is hitting it around there. Their discussion has a fair amount of latitude and reasoning, but the general public is not reading that. It's fairly chilly aloft, so I think areas that are in the mid 30s when precip starts may drop down to 32F. But on the coast...it will be sloppy...light very near the water. Honestly I can debate myself on the forecast equally on either side. I think for you and me, best to not go gang busters and utilize the reason why we have ranges. NWS has 14" at BOS which is rather bullish IMO. At least at Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS is further SW with the H7 low and CCB compared to any of the models...maybe euro isn't far off. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Steady snizzle downtown. Sidewalks a little slick, roads fine. This is shaping up to be a pretty straight-forward event for GC. Surprises should be few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS is further SW with the H7 low and CCB compared to any of the models...maybe euro isn't far off. Interesting. That sounds good to me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'm also calling BS on model srfc temps today over the interior. There should be a CF that IMO won't make it much past Ray...at least when playing the climo card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Any chance other regions of New Eng can be discussed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Classic Coastal Front is throwing a wrench into any forecast. Appear now a massive, sharp, huge gradient will develop over a very short distance. I'm once again put in my place relegated to IMBY forecasts which means BORING. Not fun this time of year trying to nail a 78F or 82F high. Or the next cool front 10 days out. Being a profession in times like this is not easy and not only the ones who frequent this forum but the unseen individuals who package forecasts should be given a great deal of leeway on accuracy especial in this event unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 NCAR ensemble and BTV WRF looks pasty too, near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Am a bit iffy about leaning on the GFS giving how its low movement and QPF field does not agree with a lot of the other guidance. It doesn't jackpot ME which does not make much sense IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any chance other regions of New Eng can be discussed? I think the interior setup has been discussed quite a bit and is pretty straightforward. The coast has uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any chance other regions of New Eng can be discussed? Looks like a nice thump for you. No pasties. I can't rule out sleet near the end of it towards dinner time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a nice thump for you. No pasties. I can't rule out sleet near the end of it towards dinner time. Hey Scott, are you thinking we get any mixing later today with the overrunning WAA aloft? Looks like an impressive area of sleet (yellows/reds on radar suggestive) in the Appalachians of Pennsylvania (my home state). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.