weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 In any case. BOS seasons, snow should be mid 30s+ by Monday noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What are you thinking cumulative down here Scott? Seems like 4-8 with round one, and maybe a few inches Monday morning depending on when the storm gets going? I might take the under by a few inches. It will change to rain tomorrow night there and in BOS I think. The fact it warms to near and a tick above 0C at 925 with east winds will do it. It may be a paste job before hand though and then obviously after. I feel like it will be a nowcast deal. If you got 3-4" of slop or 10"...it would not shock me either way. The 4KM NAM is rather cool so you have that going for you. It's a difficult call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Disappointing that there's no real confidence gain tonight. oh well. I would not be surprised if sbos_wx gets a completely different amount from me, weathafella, and bboughton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a very tough forecast right near BOS for multiple reasons...the amount of BL warmth that tries to make it in during tomorrow evening and then obviously the CCB aspect of the storm early Monday. I could see BOS getting 4" or getting 15". Will how far inland would you say the BL warmth is a concern in the evening. 128/ 495?? ballpark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will how far inland would you say the BL warmth is a concern in the evening. 128/ 495?? I think outside of 128 should be fine for all/mostly snow...I suppose can't rule out a bit of RA- just west of 128 when precip lightens up late evening or early overnight at the max penetration of the LL warmth. It kind of coincides with the potential for the dryslot, so you could get parachutes going to RA- when it lightens. But for the meaningful QPF, I think outside of 128 should be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 At least I know I'll either be filling the snowblower and downing an imperial porter or watching the rainfall and drinking an IPA. I'll be drinking either way. I anticipate snowflakes that look like water soaked Kleenex exploding against my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 One aspect that hasn't really been discussed for the coast is a flash freeze early Monday. Seems like we've had a lot of them this year. But you get mid 30s crashing into the 20s with powdery snow...any slush and water is going to freeze solid rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Yeah extremely tough forecast for BOS... I've held off on my call to various coworkers... I was hoping 0z suite would continue the improvements we saw all day Still think there is time for improvement... and maybe this is over-estimated, but the responsible energy is still over Yukon / northwest Canada... subtle shifts will have huge impacts for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I might take the under by a few inches. It will change to rain tomorrow night there and in BOS I think. The fact it warms to near and a tick above 0C at 925 with east winds will do it. It may be a paste job before hand though and then obviously after. I feel like it will be a nowcast deal. If you got 3-4" of slop or 10"...it would not shock me either way. The 4KM NAM is rather cool so you have that going for you. It's a difficult call. Yeah... the 4K and 3k are pretty damn cold here. Kind of a wash tonight... didn't really gain much clarity either way. Regardless... with snow... to some rain... back to some snow possibly... Monday commute looks like a nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Thank You Will Did a quick check of the 0Z BTV 4km WRF (Scott prob peeked) and that keeps Boston ALL snow for the event with a change to rain PVD to TAN to GHG at 10pm then at 1am it stradles Bristol/PYM country line up to about Hingham, then offshore http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One aspect that hasn't really been discussed for the coast is a flash freeze early Monday. Seems like we've had a lot of them this year. But you get mid 30s crashing into the 20s with powdery snow...any slush and water is going to freeze solid rapidly. Funny you mentioned that because we brought that up to clients for Logan. That's easily temps into the 20s with snow and blsn. Definitely will lock up anything slushy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah extremely tough forecast for BOS... I've held off on my call to various coworkers... I was hoping 0z suite would continue the improvements we saw all day Still think there is time for improvement... and maybe this is over-estimated, but the responsible energy is still over Yukon / northwest Canada... subtle shifts will have huge impacts for Boston. jeezus how fast is that energy moving .....180mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thank You Will Did a quick check of the 0Z BTV 4km WRF (Scott prob peeked) and that keeps Boston ALL snow for the event with a change to rain PVD to TAN to GHG at 10pm then at 1am it splits PYM/Bristol counties up to about Hingham, then offshore http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf I saw it. I never fully trust those weenie ptype algorithms though. I think it only solidifies what we said all night. It's a tough call. I do think just inland gets mostly wet snow with maybe a brief changeover before flipping back. Maybe this is like for Jerry's hood into interior se ma (foxboro etc). I mentioned I could see Logan a mix at some point with the western neighborhoods of Boston like West Roxbury being a paste bomb. It is pretty cold through 850 to start. Kind of tough to get rain at Boston with those temps, unless the boundary layer really gets tainted with marine air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One aspect that hasn't really been discussed for the coast is a flash freeze early Monday. Seems like we've had a lot of them this year. But you get mid 30s crashing into the 20s with powdery snow...any slush and water is going to freeze solid rapidly. The year of the tuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: jeezus how fast is that energy moving .....180mph? Northwest Territory to off Cape Cod in 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, bboughton said: It's a Saturday night. And there's a lot of uncertainty for a good swath of SNE. excellent post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'll go with 7-12 in West Roxbury/Dedham. Reasonable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 To summarize 0z suite: Best solutions (as far as total snow WAA + CCB for Boston and SNE more generally): Euro > NAM > RGEM > GFS UK also up there around Euro and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Euro gets me good out here too. Nice storm for everybody. We share the love on Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 im expecting 6-10 here and in montreal....of course the backside bonus snows on monday morning could be the fly, but i think this trend is for things to be moving along. ottawa i think will be 8-12 as they are far enough west to be affected solely by the strongest WAA snows before the transfer. impressive storm to be delvering wintry weather to such a wide region of canada and the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Organizing Low said: im expecting 6-10 here and in montreal....of course the backside bonus snows on monday morning could be the fly, but i think this trend is for things to be moving along. ottawa i think will be 8-12 as they are far enough west to be affected solely by the strongest WAA snows before the transfer. impressive storm to be delvering wintry weather to such a wide region of canada and the northeast We have 7-9" across the Ottawa area in the forecast, this evening looks good for a period of decent snow growth before the energy is lost to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 27 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: excellent post Too bad every storm can't be 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I feel ok for mby. Sure 925 comes close (not sure how far west it ends up from ny graphics) but not before about 5-6Z and then it is short lived and heck I'm sleeping anyway. Early morning Monday still looks like fun. I would forecast 8+ for mby. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: We have 7-9" across the Ottawa area in the forecast, this evening looks good for a period of decent snow growth before the energy is lost to the coastal. thats reasonabe we will see how it plays out, ottawa is usually a snow magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, Organizing Low said: thats reasonabe we will see how it plays out, ottawa is usually a snow magnet I think of them as a freezing rain magnet more than a snow magnet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 To be clear, the energy in the Yukon at this point would be associated with the mid-week low, not the one being discussed here. The energy for that storm is currently over northwestern Ontario, in association with the frontal wave near the IN-OH border. Seeing that temps in central OH are 58 F, it would appear rather unlikely that much snow will fall tomorrow in s CT, NYC or LI, and it's going to take some time to phase the systems enough for moderate snow to develop around ALB that will move into MA, n CT. Meanwhile the Yukon energy gets to northern MB about same time and begins to dive southeast, to form that potential mid-week top-up event. This near-term event looks good eventually and I'm sticking with amounts like 8" ALB, 13" ORH, 11" BOS, 18-20" CON, PWM and BGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I think of them as a freezing rain magnet more than a snow magnet lol. absolutely, i was home over christmas and it was pelting FRZRA on the 26th, and we had to cancel our plans because the car literally could not do anything but spin its tires on sheer ice rink, on flat paved road surface....got about 5 feet and called it a day..... slipped our ways back into the garage, on hands and knees up a sloped driveway lol.... but hey, thats the norm around there , nothing to see here, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Too bad every storm can't be 2'. you mean any storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Per the Tropical Tidbits maps, the 06 NAM and lesser degreee RGEM introduce a fair amount of taint everywhere south of Mass and include a lot of rain near Beantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Blizzard warning and storm surge warnings are up. 14"-22" with additional amounts Tuesday morning. Winds gusting to 65mph. Pounding waves will cause damage and some flooding along the shore line. A real monster for the province. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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