SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, GaryS said: Everything I have seen, read and summarized, here in Marblehead on the coast of Essex County, we will get anywhere from 3 to 18 inches...... Right? I don't think I have seen so many different predictions for just one storm. Thrilling, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS looks pretty good...it trended south again with the ULL...over ACK now like the 12z Euro. CCB def gets E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Big hit on the GFS for S NH and NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS brings it Monday morning for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, Stash said: I was thinking 6-10, so sounds good to me. I wouldn't be surprised if amounts were lowered by morning. Even still, it'll be one of the better packs we've had in years. NWS mentioning the MAUL. Then snow, heavy at times, should be ongoing through the afternoon. Cross sections and those BUFKIT profiles reveal an enhanced region of 2D-FGEN across the center of the region as ageostrophic vertical circulation goes nearly vertical through the column. Furthermore, of interest in the NAM and 4KM-NAM BUFR profiles, a MAUL (Moist Absolute Unstable Layer) is forecast later in the afternoon hours. If all of these variables were to occur, snowfall rates of greater than 1 inch per hour can be realized. Otherwise, impressive mid level jet in excess of 100kts approaches with left-exit region dynamics will further enhance lift. As far as dendritic snow growth, the best lift intersects the snow growth region around 21Z Sunday. Average snow ratios through the event are expected to be 12-15:1 initially then drop back to 10-12:1 (near climatology) by late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS coming late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Yup. GFS still playing catchup to the rest of guidance. SWFE are just not its forte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Not sure if GYX's latest temperature bust forecast has any bearing on the coming event. Never got above 13 despite forecast below. MEZ025-120115- Sagadahoc- Including the cities of Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, and Bowdoin 605 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 .TODAY...Snow. Highs in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, bboughton said: I really don't get a sense of what to expect out of this for Boston. It looks like 6-8" of paste trailing off overnight Sunday into Monday, with a chance of a burst of a few inches of snow Monday morning around the commute. Is that more or less right? I'm in the same boat... Allston. No idea what kind of confidence to have in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 First run taking the QPF jack out of ME and putting it into NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'm South Shore. I guess 6-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, ajisai said: I'm in the same boat... Allston. No idea what kind of confidence to have in our area I'm just not feeling this one. It feels like a trap. P.S. I'm a BU alum from '11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, The Graupler said: I'm South Shore. I guess 6-10? Hi South Shore! I'm Dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Looks like a 20" spot on the gfs. This is gonna be quite the storm. Awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, The Graupler said: I'm South Shore. I guess 6-10? Your Lincoln NH locale might be a better spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, bboughton said: I'm just not feeling this one. It feels like a trap. P.S. I'm a BU alum from '11 Go terriers! And I agree. That gradient has been RIGHT over our heads on all guidance all day that I'm not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Your Lincoln NH locale might be a better spot for this one. Yeah we were snowmobiling and watching the Super Bowl there last week. No luck this week. At least I know my new snowblower can move the pasty stuff easy enough. It looked like a rhino taking a dump, but it moved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, bboughton said: I'm just not feeling this one. It feels like a trap. P.S. I'm a BU alum from '11 These are risky but focus on WAA-that's a given for daytime snow unless the bl torches and the 925 temperature forecasts are completely off, we're going to have a nice snow tomorrow. We over performed this morning, and hopefully will get the goods Monday as well. Where in west Roxbury do you live? I'm pretty close. Definitely snowier here vs my old Brookline Village neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GGEM is good too...destroys Essex county. It's a bit more progressive than GFS, but not surprising as it's been on the progressive side from the start. It's good to see the ULL down by ACK though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: These are risky but focus on WAA-that's a given for daytime snow unless the bl torches and the 925 temperature forecasts are completely off, we're going to have a nice snow tomorrow. We over performed this morning, and hopefully will get the goods Monday as well. Where in west Roxbury do you live? I'm pretty close. Definitely snowier here vs my old Brookline Village neighborhood. I'm not in West Roxbury, I'm in Brighton. Right on the border of Brookline, off Washington St (right by the whole foods). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'm hoping one of the E MA weenies (Jay or Cpick come to mind) can chase this in Essex Co. because I'm sure the play by play will change dramatically from town to town as you head NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks pretty good...it trended south again with the ULL...over ACK now like the 12z Euro. CCB def gets E MA. What about out towards us C MA folk? Right on the periphery it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm hoping one of the E MA weenies (Jay or Cpick come to mind) can chase this in Essex Co. because I'm sure the play by play will change dramatically from town to town as you head NE. Yeah my sister lives in Newbury right behind plum island.....Should be fun for them. I'll try and get some videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm hoping one of the E MA weenies (Jay or Cpick come to mind) can chase this in Essex Co. because I'm sure the play by play will change dramatically from town to town as you head NE. Well hello I live about 5 Miles into N essex County in LWM, MA but there could be quite the contrast across the county. My goal is to reach Salisbury Beach ma (basically Ma/Nh border Mon pm and watch 20 foot waves explode like dynamite. I am def willing to travel a tad monday am if needed...i.e if weenies demand it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: What about out towards us C MA folk? Right on the periphery it seems. Most of your snow comes in with the WAA tomorrow. Whatever the coastal brings you will be of the 1"/3hr variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: What about out towards us C MA folk? Right on the periphery it seems. C MA is gonna clean up the most from the WAA tomorrow I think...in a GFS scenario, C MA gets some CCB transition too, but the meat of it is to the east. But it prob would put the area solidly into double digits. I'd forecast like 10-15" in a GFS scenario....as opposed to like 6-10" or 8-12" in a NAM scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, bboughton said: I'm not in West Roxbury, I'm in Brighton. Right on the border of Brookline, off Washington St (right by the whole foods). That's a good snow location-some decent elevation here. I think I got you mixed up with RI Rob. I bet you final with 8-10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, bboughton said: I'm not in West Roxbury, I'm in Brighton. Right on the border of Brookline, off Washington St (right by the whole foods). I'm just a walk away... B-line near allston st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks pretty good...it trended south again with the ULL...over ACK now like the 12z Euro. CCB def gets E MA. What impact would you say this trend has on southern / coastal ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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