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Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?


CoastalWx

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Comparing 18z RGEM / 18z NAM / 12z Euro... 850T's are very similar at 3z-6z Monday and plenty cold... the odd man out is the 18z RGEM with > 0C 925T just kissing Boston between 3z-6z Monday.

One reason, ironically, might be the sooner (ie. slightly further west as it passes south of CT/RI) and deeper development of the surface low and associated WAA mechanisms on the RGEM compared to the NAM / Euro at 3z.

But RGEM is odd man out and 0z suite will be hugely telling... we are very close to all snow in Boston.

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49 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

They will. Kind of a no brainer not to think Blizzard threshold will not be achieved. Like the past storm numerous locations surpassed and never in watch or warning for blizzard. WSW or Blizzard, either way it's going to rip!

They state in the evening's AFD that its such a close call with the CCB Monday Am, that they will wait to decide. Should guidance move slightly west with Monday's action that will hoist em, otherwise they will probably stand pat thru tommorrow afternoon.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I kind of agree that this is either going to overperform, or just whiff with the CCB....concerned about that. 

unless there is a major model fail or last moment trend to torch the BL we are getting warning snows Tommorrow regardless. SO looks like 6-10 or so from that. It looks like it may have some weight to it in our locale's. I know you know its snowing tomorrow just mentioning it.

Then ya....who knows what we grab from the Bombing Coastal seems like 2-12" is on the table. My guess would be 6 to 8 inches from that from say 1am to Noon Monday but confidence is almost medium in that for me. 

I would go 10-16" to start off here... and adjust (obviously) based on 0z model runs. 

I honestly think the ceiling on this thing for NE mass is 2' or so

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32 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

reading between the lines in box discussion the 6 plus is nowhere near set in stone for more southern interior areas, tremendous concern and they do not seem to enthusiastic about a heavy waa thump unless I am missing something

I would think you are good for 6-8", BOX discussion is obviously more confident N of Pike as there is still some uncertainty because temperatures are so borderline. 

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I'm a few miles over the NH border in SE NH, under 20mi from the beach.  I'm getting excited but still having reservations on what is realistic as some big numbers out there.

I'm feeling a solid foot even though many maps are bullish in the 16" area for me.  After the last storm underperformed a bit in my town, I'm hoping for over 10" and I'll be happy with anything above that!

 

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