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Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?


CoastalWx

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1 minute ago, bboughton said:

18z GFS looks almost identical to 12z to me... what am I missing?

The early Monday impact looked more intense right on the coast. 

 

Theres admittedly not huge differences from run to run at this point when we're under 24 hours from start time. But there's still a reasonably high-stakes uncertainty regarding Monday morning. 50 miles could make a huge difference and that is well within the margin of error even at 36-42 hours out. 

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Folks that believe they have no choice but to venture out ...

...odds are, if it's bad enough the governor will impose restrictions on travel to all non-essential personnel, and unless you are that (which you know already if you are...), there is "I have no choice" about it.   If you venture out in life threatening conditions as a non-essential because you 'think' you have to, and die, there's a definition for that mentality:

Darwin Award

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I have a suspicion that if it 'lulls' ...that's the end, and as this thing wraps up, bombogen legit incarnate, it will do so, so tightly that the CCB mechanics are initially constricted and not spread back west until it the system matures beyond the RI phase of development  - ...after which, yeah, if the storm is slowly translating out it may span west briefly before being out of reach. 

I know this thing's all super romantic and all...but, the base vector of motion is still west to east, and I don't see much evidence of retrograde patterning in this whole ordeal.

To correct for this and make me only look wrong in face of clad theoretical application ... (eh hm) would be for this thing to really bomb faster? 

Seriously, that's plausible, even at 30 or so hour lead, that that the low really takes off more like 50 Mi E of ACY  and the punches a whole in the troposphere heading just off the Cape ...which might be some 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule, but a huge difference maker in actually getting some wickedness in time.

 

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THE WAA is the la la lock it up snows tommorrow

seems the CF boundardy is a wildcard tommorrow for how far it punches in ...RGEM seems most aggressive with the BL torching (among trusted guidance)

Then 3-noon monday morning is gaining confidence for E MA esp NE mass but its still within the realm of just getting a graze so unless that develops EVEN FASTER (further SW deepening) this could sort of be a now cast ( the Monday am snow fall totals)

I recall a system in the big winter couple years ago that had a freakish late development to the point may were on the fence 12 hrs out if this was going to happen. Will probably remembers but it ended up going gang busters and rocking E MA with about 3 hrs ob blizzard conditions say 5-8 am or so. Wish i could remember the disco late that nite when they finally gave it all systems go.

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1 minute ago, bboughton said:

But it looks like they've released all their watches and warnings from the 4pm suite. They issued some blizzard watches but just not over here yet. 

They will. Kind of a no brainer not to think Blizzard threshold will not be achieved. Like the past storm numerous locations surpassed and never in watch or warning for blizzard. WSW or Blizzard, either way it's going to rip!

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a suspicion that if it 'lulls' ...that's the end, and as this thing wraps up, bombogen legit incarnate, it will do so, so tightly that the CCB mechanics are initially constricted and not spread back west until it the system matures beyond the RI phase of development  - ...after which, yeah, if the storm is slowly translating out it may span west briefly before being out of reach. 

I know this thing's all super romantic and all...but, the base vector of motion is still west to east, and I don't see much evidence of retrograde patterning in this whole ordeal.

To correct for this and make me only look wrong in face of clad theoretical application ... (eh hm) would be for this thing to really bomb faster? 

Seriously, that's plausible, even at 30 or so hour lead, that that the low really takes off more like 50 Mi E of ACY  and the punches a whole in the troposphere heading just off the Cape ...which might be some 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule, but a huge difference maker in actually getting some wickedness in time.

 

 I thought about that too, John. That it could wrap up and perhaps not spread back the love just far enough west as it moves to the east. But, rapid intensification is known to do weird things. If I see a 700mb low closing off nearby,all  bets are off.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a suspicion that if it 'lulls' ...that's the end, and as this thing wraps up, bombogen legit incarnate, it will do so, so tightly that the CCB mechanics are initially constricted and not spread back west until it the system matures beyond the RI phase of development  - ...after which, yeah, if the storm is slowly translating out it may span west briefly before being out of reach. 

I know this thing's all super romantic and all...but, the base vector of motion is still west to east, and I don't see much evidence of retrograde patterning in this whole ordeal.

To correct for this and make me only look wrong in face of clad theoretical application ... (eh hm) would be for this thing to really bomb faster? 

Seriously, that's plausible, even at 30 or so hour lead, that that the low really takes off more like 50 Mi E of ACY  and the punches a whole in the troposphere heading just off the Cape ...which might be some 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule, but a huge difference maker in actually getting some wickedness in time.

 

this is what I am wishing for (the last paragraph) and it is one of the scenarios I have in my mind for something epic to really ever happen here in ctrv

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

I recall a system in the big winter couple years ago that had a freakish late development to the point may were on the fence 12 hrs out if this was going to happen. Will probably remembers but it ended up going gang busters and rocking E MA with about 3 hrs ob blizzard conditions say 5-8 am or so. Wish i could remember the disco late that nite when they finally gave it all systems go.

Mid level madness. Great storm.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Getting close to rivaling the Feb 2013 Blizzard

Which gave Farmington all off 8.8"; I had a couple more.  Would take a serious bust to not exceed that by far.

 Going big. Not sure where to put it all.

Today's 7" (and counting, but not much more) 35:1 fluffernutter brought the pack to 33", though by the time things get going tomorrow it will probably have settled under 30.  Noted a hurricane force wind warning for Monday in the GOM, winds 55-65 kt.  Don't see that too often.

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Which gave Farmington all off 8.8"; I had a couple more.  Would take a serious bust to not exceed that by far.

 Going big. Not sure where to put it all.

Today's 7" (and counting, but not much more) 35:1 fluffernutter brought the pack to 33", though by the time things get going tomorrow it will probably have settled under 30.  Noted a hurricane force wind warning for Monday in the GOM, winds 55-65 kt.  Don't see that too often.



I had 3.3" and now another band is here, this is going to be a fun 2 days
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