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Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?


CoastalWx

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One almost wantst to root against the ball busters.  The whiners to a foot are the worst.

I genuinely wish that all could have even a fraction of your pure enthusiasm for the game itself, even when your own yard isn't in the crosshairs.

Happy birthday, by the way.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hmm looks like a 992 LP south of New England bombing out in the GOMAINE to me. Where's this SWFE? I don't see any primary to your west.  You get .4 qpf in initial  WSA then .8 from bombing low at the canal

 How hard is it possible 

I dunno, the primary is over PIT at like 12z Sunday and tries to go toward ELM or thereabouts as the new center forms off NJ. It does transition pretty quickly though...so it's not a pure SWFE on Sunday...starts off like that though.

 

I think it's really a semantics thing. This system is augmenting very quickly...so there's a lot of gray area as to when you "classify" it as a coastal or SWFE. I think generic Miller B is pretty accurate too.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno, the primary is over PIT at like 12z Sunday and tries to go toward ELM or thereabouts as the new center forms off NJ. It does transition pretty quickly though...so it's not a pure SWFE on Sunday...starts off like that though.

 

I think it's really a semantics thing. This system is augmenting very quickly...so there's a lot of gray area as to when you "classify" it as a coastal or SWFE. I think generic Miller B is pretty accurate too.

Hybrid

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5 minutes ago, db306 said:

Just to clarify... looking at these 925 temps and the P type output they seem not to jive exactly or do they?

2017-02-10 14_20_49-WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Internet Explorer.png

2017-02-10 14_21_04-WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Internet Explorer.png

Yeah that's fairly accurate...they won't match perfectly because on the very southern periphery of the 925 below freezing area, it's probably going to be slightly too warm on the model at 950 or 975mb to maintain snow. That said, the level of detail parsing at that point doesn't really matter. We're now talking within the ptype algorithm margin of error by itself. They will also tend to overstate the size of the "mix zone". Like for E MA there, I'd prob bring the snow almost to where the pink ends.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's fairly accurate...they won't match perfectly because on the very southern periphery of the 925 below freezing area, it's probably going to be slightly too warm on the model at 950 or 975mb to maintain snow. That said, the level of detail parsing at that point doesn't really matter. We're now talking within the ptype algorithm margin of error by itself. They will also tend to overstate the size of the "mix zone". Like for E MA there, I'd prob bring the snow almost to where the pink ends.

Aside from the immediate coast it seems to be pretty much a matter of latitude, like a number of storms we've seen in recent years. Is this the hallmark of an SWFE? Is it a question of "tilt"?

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8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

time for someone to make an accumulation map.  This day is almost over, and it's going to snow Sunday, so we really only have 1 day until the event starts...... :)

Sadly, Sam has gone to chase tornadoes in Oklahoma... he always made the best maps.

For you and I, I figure 2-4 Saturday, 7-10" Sunday/Monday

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BTV with the early Winter Storm Watches up:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ012&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ012&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=43.7499&lon=-72.3782#.WJ4ZBVUrJQI

 
Quote

 


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter
Storm Watch for snow...which is in effect from Sunday morning
through Monday evening.
* Locations...Northern New York and Vermont...including the Saint
  Lawrence and Champlain Valleys...Adirondacks...Green
  Mountains...Northeast Kingdom and western Connecticut Valley of
  Vermont.
* Hazard Types...Snow...heavy at times.
* Accumulations...6 to 10 inches of snow.
* Maximum Snowfall Rate...up to 1 inch per hour...mainly Sunday
  evening into early Monday morning.
* Timing...Snow will spread Northeast into Northern New York by
  late Sunday morning...continuing into Vermont during midday
  Sunday.
* Impacts...Snow covered roads and low visibilities will create
  hazardous travel conditions.
* Winds...Southeast 5 to 15 mph on Sunday...shifting Northeast 10
  to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on Monday.
* Temperatures...Highs on Sunday and Monday in the 20s to low 30s.
  Lows in the teens to low 20s Sunday night.
* Visibilities...Less than one mile at times in heavy snow and blowing
  snow.


 

 

 

WCAX with an early map:

https://twitter.com/WCAX_Dan/status/830138094540226560/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

C4U-MdRW8AEPGUI.jpg

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42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The consolation for those right ont he coast is that there could be a decent period of snow Monday morning there. Hopefully it doesn't miss east...but there could be a nice period of steady snow with falling temps.

Yeah hopefully. Maybe we can get a little paste before a flip.

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57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unless somehow the winds stayed more north at Boston thanks to that meso low cold tuck. The problem I see is that once winds go northeast, the area of mid 30s temps comes in. There isn't a real supply of cold air. This could be something where just inland is near 32 and gets pasted while the beaches rain. By inland...maybe several miles. Kind of has that look. 

I'm bullish. We'll see. 

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