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Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?


CoastalWx

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday is going to have some weird meso things happen. Check out the meso low in the GOM with a tongue of warmer air. That sort of stays there and plays with cstl Maine and MA. Might have some weenie CJ snow prior to the WAA stuff Sunday.

You also have LL convergence from that...like NE winds there while they are more northerly over interior.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You also have LL convergence from that...like NE winds there while they are more northerly over interior.

Yeah that's what I mean, NE over the water and then N over the coastline and inland. I think the models are way too warm again inland on Sunday. Maybe Ray can get some twister time.

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One "event" with (apparently) two areas of focus (trying not to misuse any meteorological terms here).

So, for those of us whose worlds begin and end with SNE, what are we looking at in our collective back yard (CT, MA, RI)?

Then there is the very interesting hit that Maine may take on Monday. 

I want to hear about both, but its getting so muddled in here that I'm having trouble following what's what. Maybe we really another thread for SNE Sunday portion of this. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that Ukie run is wild...I'm not really buying it yet though. I still think something a little later is going to happen.

Not to toot horns ... really, but... this thing is it's own destiny here. 

If it comes in and is more natively powerful to its self, it will countermand the ridging in the south and carve out a destiny further and further SW as we were discussing earlier.  

I don't have a problem with this either - as I said earlier, it comes down to what this thing can do without the assistance of more S stream to give it a southern(er) route.  It's just that we haven't seen that specific aspect of more power modeled  - perhaps this is the first? 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to toot horns ... really, but... this thing is it's own destiny here. 

If it comes in and is more natively powerful to its self, it will countermand the ridging in the south and carve out a destiny further and further SW as we were discussing earlier.  

I don't have a problem with this either - as I said earlier, it comes down to what this thing can do without the assistance of more S stream to give it a southern(er) route.  It's just that we haven't seen that specific aspect of more power modeled  - perhaps this is the first? 

Well we did see it on yesterday's 12z Euro and also on today's 12z JMA....admittedly the JMA isn't our first model of choice. Perhaps the Euro will trend back a bit deeper like yesterday...it backed off just a bit on 00z.

 

When it's a really close call, I tend to favor the more "climo preferred" option...which would be Gulf of Maine centric and that means we're probably too far SW for the real goods. We could certainly get the scraps from the backlash in that scenario, so I wouldn't be talking about a sunny day on Monday either. :lol:

 

Anyways, yeah...it will be interesting. The dynamics are so potent that it's always something that can surprise even the most experienced/seasoned forecasters...we've all seen extreme deepening upper levels do some strange things. Like they have a mind of their own.

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