Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR not awful for us western folks. A litle bit More to come after this too: I am very curious to see the 18z... the last panel on the 17z is where the accumulation start in central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Surface low currently in w TN, warm sector has dew points near 60 F. All models suggest some form of rapid development around 06z when low most likely to be in central Virginia to Chesapeake Bay. Cold air separation from low will be rapidly decreasing 06-09z. Would suggest to me that snowfall amounts will not be the primary concern for road maintenance towards morning rush, but flash freeze with small accumulations of snow making surfaces very slick. I continue to think it is feasible to see 2-4" around DC and BAL, 4 to 7" in n/c MD and noVA as rates will be very good for about 2-4 hours. But whatever the snowfall amounts turn out to be, I think this flash freeze and skating rink type conditions will be the big weather story by morning. Expect some thunder around 0400-0600h (EST) with this rapid development phase. With the current warmth and the dynamics of the developing low, sequence is likely to be complicated. I think you all stay in the warm sector of the developing low to about 06z, then parts of MD see backing of winds to SE then NE with winds near DC going calm for a time, then strong NE everywhere backing to NNW. It is during that phase that temps are likely to drop very quickly from maybe 50F at 06z to 33F at 09z and 28F at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: I'm not sure if anyone has been talking about this, but for areas to the south of I-70 that expect to see a significant amount of rain before temps crash, what are teh concerns about flash freezing of all that liquid after the temps do crash? Will it be a non-issue with the sun? Ground temps pal.... Minimal to no worries, except the normal bridge/overpass stuff. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 66/44 at IAD. Temps dropped 2-3 degrees in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Down to 62 in my yard. Only 30 more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Surface low currently in w TN, warm sector has dew points near 60 F. All models suggest some form of rapid development around 06z when low most likely to be in central Virginia to Chesapeake Bay. Cold air separation from low will be rapidly decreasing 06-09z. Would suggest to me that snowfall amounts will not be the primary concern for road maintenance towards morning rush, but flash freeze with small accumulations of snow making surfaces very slick. I continue to think it is feasible to see 2-4" around DC and BAL, 4 to 7" in n/c MD and noVA as rates will be very good for about 2-4 hours. But whatever the snowfall amounts turn out to be, I think this flash freeze and skating rink type conditions will be the big weather story by morning. Expect some thunder around 0400-0600h (EST) with this rapid development phase. With the current warmth and the dynamics of the developing low, sequence is likely to be complicated. I think you all stay in the warm sector of the developing low to about 06z, then parts of MD see backing of winds to SE then NE with winds near DC going calm for a time, then strong NE everywhere backing to NNW. It is during that phase that temps are likely to drop very quickly from maybe 50F at 06z to 33F at 09z and 28F at 12z. OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Td has fallen to 38 in Gaithersburg, with a sharp wind shift to the NW. Should help temps tumble quickly out of the 60s after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 60/44 NW winds. I have yet to get more than .5" of snow IMBY. I'm hoping to break 1" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 71/48 at my house. I expect NOTHING here. If I can get .25, that will bring me to an even 4" on the year. Pitiful. Anyway, the warmth is fantastic. Good luck to those north of I-70 and up towards NE MD. Bring it home and post plenty of pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Jackpotville still very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 15z sref plumes seemed to have improved for most of the region. 18z nam is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 60/42 NNW wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 57/41 See some DP's in the mid 30's out in NW WV. That is a decent sign I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Jackpotville still very much in play. DC is in the 30-40%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 For documentation, and note the highlighted text. AM snow may have a tough time sticking, but with a deepening low and significant cold air advection, the snow squalls could surprise a few spots. Quote 000 FXUS61 KLWX 081948 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Developing low pressure over the Tennessee valley will gather strength as it tracks across central Virginia tonight and off the Delmarva Thursday morning. High pressure and much colder temperatures will return Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...After another day of record highs in the 70s, things will change drastically over the next 24 hrs. Developig low pressure over the TN valley is expected to gather strength as it moves across central VA and off the Delmarva Thu morning. Rain will overspread the region early this evening as heights aloft fall and upper trough over the wrn Great Lks takes on a negative tilt and upper difluence increases over the region. Rain will gradually change to snow overnight as colder air is drawn in, but exact timing of when p-type changes occur still differ somewhat in the models. Latest ECWMF has trended warmer with sfc to 850 mb temps and track of 850 mb low is across our area which is not conducive for significant snow accumulations especially considering temps are still in the upper 50s in Hagerstown. It does appear far northern areas of Carroll, Baltimore and Harford counties will see the highest snow totals outside of the upslope areas, but expect some melting of snow as it makes contact with warm ground. Overall, this is a moderate precip event with QPF totals ranging from half to one inch. Snow will begin to taper off shortly after 12Z Thu as low pres pulls rapidly off the coast. A brief break in the precip is expected late Thu morning into early afternoon, before additional shortwave energy moves across and helps trigger snow showers and squalls. Strong NW flow, cold air advection and increasing low-mid level instability from steepening lapse rates will make atmosphere conducive to squalls some of which could be quite intense for brief periods of time. Expect an additional quarter to half inch of snow in most places and locally higher with any intense bands. These squalls could cause significant impacts to the Thu afternoon rush hour commute. Trof axis pushes east of the area around 00Z Fri with subsidence and drying building shutting down squalls. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Very cold and brisk Thu night under building high pressure. Wind chills may approach or exceed advzy criteria over the Potomac highlands. Chilly Fri under high pressure. Moderating temps Fri night under warm advection clouds and srly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: For documentation, and note the highlighted text. AM snow may have a tough time sticking, but with a deepening low and significant cold air advection, the snow squalls could be the entire event in some spots. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: DC is in the 30-40%... BWI is close to 50/50... we're part of the forum too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: DC is in the 30-40%... I just spilled my drink. We actually have a chance of at least a car topper here DC and NW of DC. That should not make me happy, but it certainly does now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 61/43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Mild afternoon, 66 degrees with a 41 dewpoint. Neighbors are grilling barbeque chicken and swilling Budweiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18z NAM snow maps get the inch into DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Can we please stop posting the Kuchera snow maps? They are way overdone with this type of storm setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Eastern shore gets screwed this run. Looks like the deform band sets up in central MD and then deteriorates as the LP shoots up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 71/44 National Harbor Dropped 2 degrees in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Can we please stop posting the Kuchera snow maps? They are way overdone with this type of storm setup. What are those things anyway? Just a higher ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Can we please stop posting the Kuchera snow maps? They are way overdone with this type of storm setup. On Pivotal, the Kuchera is actually showing less snow than 10:1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z NAM snow maps... interesting... get decent snow into DC no. stop. that snow map is overdone. come on, yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, mappy said: no. stop. that snow map is overdone. come on, yoda. I edited after seeing the Kuchera title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, caviman2201 said: On Pivotal, the Kuchera is actually showing less snow than 10:1... all snow maps are overdone with this setup. i like posting them too but you can't take them at face value. look at temp profiles. DC is still at 34 when precip moves out of the area per 18z NAM. Do you really expect DC to pick up 1.3 of snow with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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