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February 8-9 Short range disco and Obs - STORM MODE


stormtracker

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Euro is already missing on the current temps. Can't help but be suspicious of the temperature projection for tomorrow morning as the back edge of the precip is moving through. Regardless, even if it's generally correct with the lower level temperatures, it still only produces an inch max of snow for DC.  Seems reasonable to call for an inch or less from DC south.

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Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

It is all on how fast we can get the cold air in here

It has slowed though on some of the (colder) guidance. Once the storm deepens off the coast and temps really crash, its too late for a lot of area as the best precip and dynamics are gone.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It has slowed though on some of the (colder) guidance. Once the storm deepens off the coast and temps really crash, its too late for a lot of area as the best precip and dynamics are gone.

It's always slower then modeled with these types of events.

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8 minutes ago, ohwxguy said:

Euro is already missing on the current temps. Can't help but be suspicious of the temperature projection for tomorrow morning as the back edge of the precip is moving through. Regardless, even if it's generally correct with the lower level temperatures, it still only produces an inch max of snow for DC.  Seems reasonable to call for an inch or less from DC south.

Yes but don't forget your looking at 2m. Upstairs cooling at 700-850 will be much better coupled w dynamic cooling. As modeled column is likely to collapse swiftly. I know it scary stuff...especially after waking outside at lunch. Trust the models....I hope. We've been burned a plenty so I feel ya. 

Good luck. 

Nut

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1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

I'm not sure if anyone has been talking about this, but for areas to the south of I-70 that expect to see a significant amount of rain before temps crash, what are teh concerns about flash freezing of all that liquid after the temps do crash?  Will it be a non-issue with the sun?

None for us neighbor. Between the warm ground and only near freezing temps, we'll be fine. IF we can get 3-4" or more, tomorrow night will definitely be a mess though.

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3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I'm not sure if anyone has been talking about this, but for areas to the south of I-70 that expect to see a significant amount of rain before temps crash, what are teh concerns about flash freezing of all that liquid after the temps do crash?  Will it be a non-issue with the sun?

Can't pretreat with brine in the rain either.  If temps get below freezing before sunrise, may be some very quick freezing on surfaces, though the warm temps the past two days will help road crews a lot.

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I mentioned the change in snow depth in the NAM earlier today.   Here are the 12z 4km NAM changes in snow depth from f00.    I've posted them at f24 and f36, as the f24 map initially shows more snow on the ground in northern MD before it either compacts or melts a bit during the afternoon, and I also wanted to show totals for points northeast.    Consistent with the idea that getting much snow on the ground in DC Metro is going to be a major challenge.

namx.neast.snowdrun24.gif

namx.neast.snowdrun36.gif

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