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February 8-9 Short range disco and Obs - STORM MODE


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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

34/34 it is snowing here but not hard enough to do much. It was pouring rain and sleet for the last hour, we wasted a ton of precip then it flipped but also tapered off so it's light to moderate snow. 

Damn. I don't think I'm gonna get any accum here if you didn't get anything yet. That big blob was our chance we just couldn't time it up right

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

32/32 finally snowing at a decent clip. Ground turning white. I'd guess 1"/hr rate but nothing overly impressive. Judging by radar we might eek out 2" perhaps 3 if a band sets up and lingers but that's about it. Last ob going back to sleep

Congrats man, i hope that band stays put over you til 5pm, and you end up with plenty of snow!

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The low was a few hours too fast and got by before the front did. 

Yeah. That was the biggest bummer to see in the trends with guidance today. I saw you mentioned how just slowing this thing down 6 hours or having the boundary 50 miles further southeast would have made a huge difference. Couldn't agree more. Timing was just barely off. At least it was something to track in the meantime. Tough one to forecast. My old boss Eric Horst said this is one of the top 3 hardest forecasts he's had to make in 30+ years of forecasting. Definitely was not going to be easy to say the least. 

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Just went out to get the paper. It is getting WINDY out there, wind gusts out of the north to at least 28 mph. Small branches start getting blown down off my old tree at 32 mph. We have had enough wind events this low sun period for me to work that out. Still raining, I expect 99 percent rain with this but still fun to track and watch!

Just dropped to 41 degrees.

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9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I noticed there was over 3 inches of snow in central IL in the weaker early stages of this system. But in general, the idea of following the system along and moving the details along various tracks will have limitations because of the explosive development likely to begin around 06z. In fact there is probably colder air waiting ahead of the system to rush in from the northeast, and whatever is tagging along from the northwest will be a dead issue by then. This will change from a rather pedestrian sort of system now to quite a dynamic storm 06z-10z to an explosive cyclone after that. The weather isn't going to move in, it's going to develop out of these ingredients. What's about to happen isn't yet happening anywhere. 

Just wanted to repost this entry by Roger Smith back around 9pm last night. Something to think about, folks.

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

You do realize he was also calling for 3-7 inches in DC and Baltimore....

I do realize that. However, I think that in the post I quoted, he was emphasizing communities much farther north than where I live. I still believe I will see mostly rain from this, mostly rain thru late this afternoon. No accumulation in Dale City whatsoever. This has still been a fun storm to track and to watch.

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