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Please post your observations, and other data for the Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017 here - Thanks!

WeatherFox

By WeatherFox,
in New York City Metro

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Death, taxes, and ag3's homerism.

When you consider the forecast region as a whole, BOX>OKX.  

Not by much. Models had 15"+ for Boston and they ended with 10"-12". I had 10.4" in Queens.

Also, please do not bring sports forum into a real section like this. You are a Met. Act serious in here, like I do.

 

Truth is NYC/LI/SWCT had: 8"-16"

Boston Metro and nearby had: 10"-18"

Very similar.

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Not by much. Models had 15"+ for Boston and they ended with 10"-12". I had 10.4" in Queens.

Also, please do not bring sports forum into a real section like this. You are a Met.

 

Truth is NYC/LI/SWCT had: 8"-16"

Boston Metro and nearby had: 10"-18"

Very similar.

10-18" > 8-16" 

Very similar, but they edged us out.  It's OK, life goes on.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, danstorm said:

10-18" > 8-16" 

Very similar, but they edged us out.  It's OK, life goes on.

I am simply pointing out that they had similar #s to us. No need to attack me based on any post I make in off topic sections. This is a real section and I barely post here anymore.

 

Boston region got a similar storm to our region. Period.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted 
NASSAU COUNTY...
   HICKSVILLE            14.0   430 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   JERICHO               13.0   545 PM  2/09  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   NEW HYDE PARK         12.2   700 PM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO           
   ROSLYN                12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   NORTH MASSAPEQUA      12.0   500 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   GLEN COVE             12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   BETHPAGE              12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   OLD BROOKVILLE        12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   GARDEN CITY           12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   EAST MEADOW           11.2   700 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MALVERNE              10.6   330 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   OYSTER BAY            10.0   515 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted 
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   SELDEN                16.0   700 PM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO           
   BOHEMIA               15.5   530 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   BABYLON               15.3   715 PM  2/09  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   LAKE RONKONKOMA       15.1   655 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ISLIP AIRPORT         14.3   700 PM  2/09  FAA OBSERVER            
   HAUPPAUGE             14.0   500 PM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   NORTH BABYLON         14.0   500 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   SETAUKET              14.0   500 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   SMITHTOWN             13.8   500 PM  2/09  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   ISLIP                 13.6   530 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   COMMACK               13.5   445 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   MILLER PLACE          13.5   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   UPTON                 13.5   700 PM  2/09  NWS OFFICE              
   EASTPORT              13.5   500 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   EAST ISLIP            13.5   715 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ORIENT                13.0   734 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SOUTH HUNTINGTON      12.9   530 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PATCHOGUE             12.5   623 PM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   SAINT JAMES           12.5   745 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   LINDENHURST           12.3   645 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WEST ISLIP            12.0   600 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MATTITUCK             11.8   500 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WEST BABYLON          11.7   330 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BAY SHORE             11.4   500 PM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   MOUNT SINAI           11.0   630 PM  2/09  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   COPIAGUE              11.0   700 PM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO           
   KINGS PARK            11.0   340 PM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO           
   SOUND BEACH           10.8   500 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   RIVERHEAD             10.5   430 PM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   SAYVILLE              10.4   400 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   GREENLAWN             10.3   343 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   RIDGE                 10.2   515 PM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE
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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

system was moving too fast for much more than these totals.  

 

They were using the false Kuchera maps also. Forecast for them was also 1"-1.5" of QPF. Similar to our area. People got thrown off by the BS Kuchera method.

In the end, Euro, Rgem, NAMs + most models were very accurate with their .75"-1.25" of Precip. That's exactly what fell.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ag3 said: 

NASSAU COUNTY...
   HICKSVILLE            14.0   430 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   JERICHO               13.0   545 PM  2/09  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   NEW HYDE PARK         12.2   700 PM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO           
   ROSLYN                12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   NORTH MASSAPEQUA      12.0   500 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   GLEN COVE             12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   BETHPAGE              12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   OLD BROOKVILLE        12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   GARDEN CITY           12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   EAST MEADOW           11.2   700 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MALVERNE              10.6   330 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   OYSTER BAY            10.0   515 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER

Nassau has done very well this winter

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

They were using the false Kuchera maps also. Forecast for them was also 1"-1.5" of QPF. Similar to our area. People got thrown off by the BS Kuchera method.

In the end, Euro, Rgem, NAMs + most models were very accurate with their .75"-1.25" of Precip. That's exactly what fell.

Kuchera maps need to be used with caution-some were incredibly overdone like the Euro which had widespread 21-26 inches for CT/LI/RI/MA

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Kuchera maps need to be used with caution-some were incredibly overdone like the Euro which had widespread 21-26 inches for CT/LI/RI/MA

The Kuchera maps overdid it in Northern NJ as well.  Inflated totals at least 5-8 inches for some areas here depending on the model.  

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I am simply pointing out that they had similar #s to us. No need to attack me based on any post I make in off topic sections. This is a real section and I barely post here anymore.

 

Boston region got a similar storm to our region. Period.

The storm was a little better developed for them than for us. One of the reasons why they average more snow than the NYC area. We still had a very respectable storm. 8-14" and locally more is nothing to sneeze at. The people who got jipped were SW of us toward Philly. PHL is still at only 8" of snow for the winter. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, ag3 said: 

NASSAU COUNTY...
   HICKSVILLE            14.0   430 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   JERICHO               13.0   545 PM  2/09  SOCIAL MEDIA            
   NEW HYDE PARK         12.2   700 PM  2/09  AMATEUR RADIO           
   ROSLYN                12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   NORTH MASSAPEQUA      12.0   500 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   GLEN COVE             12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   BETHPAGE              12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   OLD BROOKVILLE        12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   GARDEN CITY           12.0   615 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                  
   EAST MEADOW           11.2   700 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MALVERNE              10.6   330 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   OYSTER BAY            10.0   515 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER

The Long Beach total I saw seemed low. In my yard I measured between 9 and 13" and averaged it to 11". But the drifting made it quite tough to be accurate, it's possible I was off. 

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It was horrible for Phl metro and nj area 

Why NJ though? NJ received precip but it moved in a bit faster and CNJ and south wasted it to Rain and Sleet.

Newark and North received the .75"-1" the Euro and most models were advertising. Hence 6"-10" of snow there.

 

 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Why NJ though? NJ received precip but it moved in a bit faster and CNJ and south wasted it to Rain and Sleet.

Newark and North received the .75"-1" the Euro and most models were advertising. Hence 6"-10" of snow there.

 

 

Negative. It was too wet in eastern pa and in nj. Euro had 1.00+ for most of eastern nj and that didn't happen. Changeover was not a problem it was lack of qpf and CCB 

 

kewr .8 yesterday the euro at 00z Thursday had over a 1.00 for them. 

Phl only had .5 

 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted

The Euro also went nuts with the Kuchera ratios. It gave us like 15 or 16 inches here with Kuchera ratios, yet we ended up with 6. I remember looking at the HRRR runs and the Kuchera maps were printing out about the same snow amounts as the 10:1 maps. Same with NAM and RGEM. The Euro really overestimated snow ratios, unlike the other models. I thought the Euro did a terrible job with this storm. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The Euro also went nuts with the Kuchera ratios. It gave us like 15 or 16 inches here with Kuchera ratios, yet we ended up with 6. I remember looking at the HRRR runs and the Kuchera maps were printing out about the same snow amounts as the 10:1 maps. Same with NAM and RGEM. The Euro really overestimated snow ratios, unlike the other models. I thought the Euro did a terrible job with this storm. 

Agree 100% I think we need to keep in mind how the euro likes to be to qpf happy in miller B's. This is the second time it screwed us with this type of situation. The nam and rgem did really well with this. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The Euro also went nuts with the Kuchera ratios. It gave us like 15 or 16 inches here with Kuchera ratios, yet we ended up with 6. I remember looking at the HRRR runs and the Kuchera maps were printing out about the same snow amounts as the 10:1 maps. Same with NAM and RGEM. The Euro really overestimated snow ratios, unlike the other models. I thought the Euro did a terrible job with this storm. 

January 7th was a way more enjoyable storm imby and longer duration of snow 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Not here...got 5" in 1/7 and 9.7" in 2/9. Yesterday had blinding snow rates and high winds, incredibly low visibility.

I had 7 I believe on 1/7 and 6.5 yesterday. We had heavy snow and low visibility for about two hours yesterday. The rest of the storm was pretty meh. When we had decent returns over us in the late morning and afternoon that didn't do much. During that time  dim sun was through the clouds and rates were horrible 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

The Euro also went nuts with the Kuchera ratios. It gave us like 15 or 16 inches here with Kuchera ratios, yet we ended up with 6. I remember looking at the HRRR runs and the Kuchera maps were printing out about the same snow amounts as the 10:1 maps. Same with NAM and RGEM. The Euro really overestimated snow ratios, unlike the other models. I thought the Euro did a terrible job with this storm. 

Kuchera is not the Euro forecast. The Euro 10:1 ratios and QPF did fine for NYC and LI. But you need to boost the ratios to get closer to reality in the colder interior spots. Vendors would probably do better to leave those Kuchera algo products off their sites. Not sure why some were expecting much better than 10:1 near the coast based on the sounding profiles.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Roads are horrendous around the island. Surprised the main roads, other than highways, are in such bad shape. Really just awful. 

same here alot of frozen gunk on the roads with big ruts-I think it was because of the warm ground after the 65 degree day-the first inch turned into an impermiable layer of ice.

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Kuchera is not the Euro forecast. The Euro 10:1 ratios and QPF did fine for NYC and LI. But you need to boost the ratios to get closer to reality in the colder interior spots. Vendors would probably do better to leave those Kuchera algo products off their sites. Not sure why some were expecting much better than 10:1 near the coast based on the sounding profiles.

But why then did the other models when factoring in Kuchera ratio not show amounts much higher than 10:1? Like I said the HRRR Kuchera maps and 10:1 maps printed out almost the same amount of snow. It was only the Euro Kuchera ratio maps that were showing much higher than 10:1. That led me to believe that it was the Euro model itself that was overestimating snow ratios. If it was just a flawed Kuchera method then I would think the other models would show inflated totals as well. Maybe I'm completely wrong about this, but it's what I assumed. So if I'm wrong I'd like to know why the Euro Kuchera snow maps were way off the but the Kuchera maps for the other models were not. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

The Euro also went nuts with the Kuchera ratios. It gave us like 15 or 16 inches here with Kuchera ratios, yet we ended up with 6. I remember looking at the HRRR runs and the Kuchera maps were printing out about the same snow amounts as the 10:1 maps. Same with NAM and RGEM. The Euro really overestimated snow ratios, unlike the other models. I thought the Euro did a terrible job with this storm. 

The Euro didn't overestimate snow ratios. Weenies were cherry picking snow maps to post-most or all knowledgeable posters and mets said to throw the high ratio stuff away. If you looked on Eurowx or adjusted to the 10-1 ratio or less which is what happened, the totals were much better. 

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