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Philadelphia Snow

Feb 8-9th Storm discussion

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Quote
..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Watch...which is in effect from late Wednesday night
through Thursday afternoon.

* LOCATIONS...Northeastern Maryland, northern Delaware,
  southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Potential for 5 or more inches.

* TIMING...Rain will overspread the area from the west Wednesday
  night and changeover to snow from northwest to southeast early
  Thursday morning. Sleet may mix in briefly during the transition
  from rain to snow. The snow could be heavy at times Thursday
  morning before quickly tapering off from west to east during
  the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow and poor visibilities at times could
  make travel dangerous. Significant impacts to the Thursday
  morning rush are possible.

* WINDS...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...Lower 40s at the onset, falling into the mid 30s
  early Thursday morning.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2 mile or less at times in heavy snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor
the latest forecasts.

Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to
experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest
event are available online at www.weather.gov/phi/winter

&&

$$

 

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Steve...always love the posts about increasing sun angle....however still only as strong as Mid-November....if it snows then folks feel like it is low sun angle - all about perspective!


I was teasing there actually poking some fun at the people who incessantly post about sun angle lol.

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Sigh of relief for the first two americans in at 0z with no major jumps, the Lucy thing since last January has been unreal

5-8" with 9-10" lolipops looking good. Storm will be moving warp speed I doubt numbers getting any higher.

 

 

 

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GFS 5-10" SE PA. Think we are coming to a concensus. Agree with RedSky....quick mover. These are about the highest totals SE PA is going to eek out from this one. Still a nice and well-deserved event after the way the majority of the season has gone. Lock it up!

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS 5-10" SE PA. Think we are coming to a concensus. Agree with RedSky....quick mover. These are about the highest totals SE PA is going to eek out from this one. Still a nice and well-deserved event after the way the majority of the season has gone. Lock it up!

Reminds me of an old school pre 2000 snow, before the era of big blocking and capturing where most winters this would be the big one.

 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Reminds me of an old school pre 2000 snow, before the era of big blocking and capturing where most winters this would be the big one.

 

Yup our perspective is a bit distorted after the numerous blockbusters the past 8 years or so.  This is would be a banner late 80's/90's style storm

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This snow map shows an area (darker blue circle) in Hunterdon county just west of Somerset county that has less snow than the surrounding areas. This is where I live and in most events I do get less snow.  I don't know what causes it but I would love to have some suggestions.

 

IMG_1688.thumb.PNG.271acfd8e7007256b8da1ab0fad1ec56.PNG

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ECM further SE a little weaker still 8-9" for SEPA, 7-8" Berks and Lehigh Valley. The jog puts south Jersey into the good snow, actually shows a qpf max near Philly and south Jersey of 11-12"

Gets Baltimore and DC into the game- makes millions more people happy 

 

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ECM further SE a little weaker still 8-9" for SEPA, 7-8" Berks and Lehigh Valley. The jog puts south Jersey into the good snow, actually shows a qpf max near Philly and south Jersey of 11-12"

Gets Baltimore and DC into the game- makes millions more people happy 

 




You have text qpf total for ABE? This truewx.com isn't working out. Really crappy Euro products


Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 


You have text qpf total for ABE? This truewx.com isn't working out. Really crappy Euro products


Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk
 

 

 

Only a snow map with 8" likely the same as NYC which is .75"

 

 

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6z NAM 4km goes apesh!t with a general 8-15" across SE PA. Im thinking this is more like a 5-10" storm in reality for my area. 12km NAM more in line with my thinking. Would take some insane rates for those totals the 4km spat out for such a quick mover.

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since it's such a fast mover I think a general 6-10 is a good bet for most of the area. however I do think we ll see some 15" lollipops for whoever gets under the best rates. not a wide spread area but definitely expect to see some surprisingly high totals despite the speed of the storm.

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I'm weary of these higher totals out there for Philly S&E. It will rain, and then it will be wet snow. It's not going to be snowing for all that long of a period of time in reality. I like the Fox29 map posted above. 4-6" will most certainly fall in Philly. It could go higher, but 8-12" inch is too risky to throw out there.

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26 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

I'm weary of these higher totals out there for Philly S&E. It will rain, and then it will be wet snow. It's not going to be snowing for all that long of a period of time in reality. I like the Fox29 map posted above. 4-6" will most certainly fall in Philly. It could go higher, but 8-12" inch is too risky to throw out there.

wet snow or not, it will be coming down at such a rate that I do not think sticking will be an issue. we ve seen many times that snow can stick right away after its been 60 for multiple days as long as it comes down fast and furious which its suppose to do. if this was a long drawn out event and these totals were being thrown out, I'd be sceptical as well. but since we re seeing a bunch of qpf in a short amount of time, I don't think we ll have to worry about the wet snow factor as it should be coming down hard for a majority of the event.

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

wet snow or not, it will be coming down at such a rate that I do not think sticking will be an issue. we ve seen many times that snow can stick right away after its been 60 for multiple days as long as it comes down fast and furious which its suppose to do. if this was a long drawn out event and these totals were being thrown out, I'd be sceptical as well. but since we re seeing a bunch of qpf in a short amount of time, I don't think we ll have to worry about the wet snow factor as it should be coming down hard for a majority of the event.

Just saw this happen back in Nov after a really warm Saturday, cold front came through with showers changing to a heavy burst of snow that evening which quickly whitened the ground.

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42 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

wet snow or not, it will be coming down at such a rate that I do not think sticking will be an issue. we ve seen many times that snow can stick right away after its been 60 for multiple days as long as it comes down fast and furious which its suppose to do. if this was a long drawn out event and these totals were being thrown out, I'd be sceptical as well. but since we re seeing a bunch of qpf in a short amount of time, I don't think we ll have to worry about the wet snow factor as it should be coming down hard for a majority of the event.

 

We will see! I'll play it safe and stick with lower totals/expectations. 4-7" it is for Philly S&E B)

We can even go 5-8" to meet everyone in the middle.

I understand many models are outputting 8-10", but I am going to say it ends up less than that just based on past experience with these types of storms. Not doing anything scientific, just remembering thinking similar scenarios would result in good snow only for totals to be lower than my expectations.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

4km NAM 7-10" give or take SE PA. 3km NAM 6-10" SE PA. We just about have a consensus. NWS WSW totals look spot on. 

Ugh. Now I have to bring the blower up from the basement. Good problem to have I suppose.

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