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Feb 8-9th Storm discussion


SnowLover22

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco has 3" to 5" of snow but it struggles a bit longer with a heavy mix with all snow by 630am if it is wrong then those numbers could go up a bit

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast
 after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the
 evening, then a mix of rain, snow, and sleet likely after midnight. Low 29. Wind
 north-northwest around 5 mph in the evening, becoming northeast after midnight.
 Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon.
 Patchy light fog in the morning. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain likely in the
 morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 32, but
 temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind chill ranging from 18 to 26. Wind
 north-northeast around 12 mph, gusting to 24 mph, in the morning, becoming
 north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on
 ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches.

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I feel like the snowfall totals will obviously not be as uniform as you get from the operational world models. We will have a strong fronto band it seems with intense lift. Where air rises, it also has to sink somewhere as well. If someone can sit under rates 3-4" for a good two hours, it would be amazing. I'm simply hoping the subsidence doesn't set shop over me lol.

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Wxsim with 18z data for NW Chester County continues to tick up slightly with Heavy Snow by 4am Thursday - totals between 6" to 8" of snow by early  PM

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast
 after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the
 evening, then a mix of rain and snow likely after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill
 ranging from 26 to 49. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half
 an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the
 afternoon. Patchy light fog. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow
 in the afternoon. High 34, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind chill
 ranging from 20 to 26. Wind north around 11 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half
 an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches.

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4km NAM is 8-12" SE PA. 3km 5-10" same areas. Of bigger note is the sizeable jump N on the NAM with the slp. We salvage a snow event because the system is deeper and more consolidated/dynamic. Impressive lift. Hopefully just a blip and not a trend.....we dont need a stinking N trend in SE PA especially right along I95. We already saw the door close on our DC friends the last 12 hours so......fingers crossed for us. Still thinking NW burbs jackpot.



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