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February 8-9 Cold Rain Event


yoda

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm definitely too negative and it's impacting my posting. Good post--given the volatility we're going to be on the edge of our seat for a while. Outside of Mappyland, no one should be jumping or spiking the football.

ehhhh. GFS introduced warmer air in the upper levels this time. So while there is no shortage of precip, there are other problems now. 

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What a massive increase in qpf in one run of the gfs ...and at so close in range to the event. No way the outcome is set in stone yet. Expected from a meso model..but global at the 40 hour mark...wow

Doubled the amounts! 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

In all seriousness...what do we do if the UK/Euro shows marginal thermals (33-34) and heavy snow vs what the GFS/NAM is showing. 

Add 2 degrees to the surface and make your best guess how it plays out. Verifying below guidance on temps seems like the least likely scenario. 

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2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looking good this morning, RGEM has jumped in with a very late change but intense rates. Blend of GFS, NAM and RGEM suggests 6 to 10 inch potential near and north of I-95, trending to 2 to 6 in a zone with northern edge DCA-ACY.

6-10 inches of what exactly?

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Any bets on the Euro.  

I say north and caves to the NAM.....its time for the blind squirrel to find some Nuts.

 

hey...I'm a nut.

 

Nut

 

I think it generally stays the course. Maybe a tick north. Probably it will be a bit dry compared to the rest of the 12z cycle.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think it generally stays the course. Maybe a tick north. Probably it will be a bit dry compared to the rest of the 12z cycle.

Yeah I can see that as a possiblity.  it aint the Doc fr nothin ya know.

would be nice to see the NAM crew get one though.  

Nut

 

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