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February 8-9 Cold Rain Event


yoda

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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When this fails will you jump with me and Clueless? The more the merrier.

This is a dud winter, but I won't jump until President's Day.  At that time I'll probably be happy to.

 

NAM report.  DPs a little better by 00z Thursday vs the 06z run.  I find those more instructive to look at than the actual temps.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

This is a dud winter, but I won't jump until President's Day.  At that time I'll probably be happy to.

 

NAM report.  DPs a little better by 00z Thursday vs the 06z run.  I find those more instructive to look at than the actual temps.

Good point, thanks!

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

that track is money for you.  not bad for me if it was actually cold enough.  2m temps gonna crap in my cornflakes

...ew?  I'm still worried about temps on this one. For those of us along or just east of the fall line, there are too many memories of marginal temp situations not working out.  Gotta hope for deathband/nukage/raking/pummeling in the right spot

 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Ukie track....stole ( borrowed):rolleyes: it from the other board.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316058

One thing we might have going for us is look at the line plot in your link. From the blue dot to the green dot the pressure drops from 1000 mb to 990mb. That's a pretty rapid intensification right in the spot that most of our good storms produce a heavy band. At the very least we will probably get a nice  amount of  evap cooling  as the best lift starts to increaseright where we want it and hopefully some good DBZ returns overhead. 

What we really need is that you ukie  track with that rapid intensification and I think this at least HAS the potential to perform 3-5" through nova/md 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Ukie track....stole ( borrowed):rolleyes: it from the other board.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316058

The timing of the intensification of the low will be key for area and this is probably close to how we want to see it play out. Need it somewhat weak to our southwest with the rapid intensification beginning as it begins passing underneath. That way it limits the southerly flow early on but ramps up helping to pull in the colder air as it passes to our east.

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Good point Pivotpoint! 

Agree Showmethesnow. ..good catch

Thanks! Haha, I see we made the same point at the same exact time.

Personally I like the ukie.  And honestly when it's paired with the euro they are a good combo...

We just need euro to keep being King for 24 more hours lol

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6 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Notable trend of the 2" or so line from 00z - 06z - 12z 12k NAM runs. At 00z, it was around I-76, now it's down to near I-70. Still not much at all for the vast majority of us who live south of I-70.

 

The 4k has a more SW-NE axis of snow:

 

nam4km_asnow_neus_18.png

That doesnt look awful.  I am near 3 inches on that map.  I would take half that..and like it

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10 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Not at all. I think it was a terrible run for inside the beltway, and a 15 mile radius around it too

The trend overall is not horrible, but the District is running out of time for anything decent.

I changed my mind. We have 7 more NAM runs! I blame the other Debbie downers.

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

The trend overall is not horrible, but the District is running out of time for anything decent.

Yeah I think we're just about toast.  If everything trended towards the Euro this morning I'd say trace - 2 inches of mangled garbage in the district, but now I'd forecast rain --> white rain (if we're lucky). 

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