weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We all prefer you keep melting and go back to sleep. I'm taking one for the team here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm taking one for the team here... Very much appreciated team player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I dont know if anyone read the upton AFD but, for them, it is very strongly worded, seems to be high confidence with this shift. HWO was issued for a 30% chance of the CWA reaching warning criteria. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Winter makes a potentially dramatic comeback on Thursday following a very mild Wednesday. Then warm advection comes back for the weekend. Cold FROPA on Wednesday with some spotty light rain still around in the morning. FCST max temps, mid to upper 50s, are within a few degrees of records. The system of interest is late Wednesday night into Thursday. Have focused on ECMWF and GFS/GEFS for the forecast. The dynamics of interest is energy still out in the Pacific where pattern is rather chaotic with a Rex Block currently over Alaska. This energy undercuts the Block and rapidly tracks east. The other energy is in the north stream shortwave and is coming down the eastern side of the Rex Block from around 80 degrees north. The NWP is rather impressive with the rapid, but progressive cyclogenesis. GEFS members support categorical POPs. (Note, am discounting the NAM and CMC operational runs as do not believe they`re fully capturing the energy.) The jet structure seen is also impressive (though not exactly textbook). A coupled Jet with 130+ KT maxes is noted over the northeast in the predawn hours. The other issues are boundary layer temps and timing. Temps appear such that they should support mainly snow or rain changing to snow along the coast. Timing, which is focused on Thursday morning, could be 6 hours faster or slower as seen in the GEFS. As for amounts - there are members of the GEFS with over an inch of liquid. believe that is over a 30% potential for 6" plus. Thus, we`ll start an "outlook" for this system. POPs were raised to likely along the coast, but expect POPs to rise as uncertainty diminishes over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has that look of big area of 8-12".. couple higher Lollis with enhancements Snow no nickle no dime on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS will be juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is going to come in good without a doubt, sharper at H5 and better @ the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Kev BSR!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS looks like it's going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Man, slow down that southern stream just a bit and watch out. That northern stream is close by there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kev BSR!!! BSR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 It's an impressive 500 mb evolution for frontogenic forcing on this NAM solution. There is a bit of a weak southern and/or intermediate stream impulse that actually triggers the wave on Tuesday's trailing baroclinic axis down over the eastern TV region ... The N-stream bullies into the OV and that at whole scale ...tips the flow along and off the EC to more of a NNE trajectory; this effectively partially captures said wave (most importantly) in time to clip eastern PA up through SNE and perhaps eastern Maine.... The southern impulse then rides along the quintessential 1.5 deg lat/lon SE of ISP for producing said mid level instability.. My guess is the sections will show a pretty strong -omega unzip from roughly NYC to west of Boston should this sort of NAM evolution come to pass. Again ...the weaker and more N Tuesday event notwithstanding.. the idea is not having the baroclinic zone whisked off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: BSR? Yea the maps you busted my balls about the other day. We talked 4 days ago about how this setup was eerily similar to the first week of Feb last year with the cutter then the coastal. We posted maps of the BSR which look very similar to today's Euro GFS outputs, looks pretty solid today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Yeah Bob, this system is really close to at least a partial phase and a full phase is also possible, but currently not likely as currently modeled. However, the dynamics in the northern stream are very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Confidence rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nice run on the NAM for you guys down there. Of course if it showed a weak wave going out well SE people would say its the NAM and still way out of its range. Enjoy! Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Confidence rising. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12z NAM brings confidence in a much colder scenario for Cape and Islands. 850mb and 925mb lows are closed and move southeast of the area with temps below freezing at both levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Nice run on the NAM for you guys down there. Of course if it showed a weak wave going out well SE people would say its the NAM and still way out of its range. Enjoy! Gene Well seeing as the Euro GFS both show that Gene, people ain't saying anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is much faster than NAM...it shunts it east fairly quickly...so while it does hit most of the region...its pretty much an advisory event, maybe a few low end warning lollis in SE lucky spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The GFS accums are pretty pedestrian... why is that... warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Tip is right, the NAM has intense Omega(Lift) over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Congrats guys on the follow up wave. GFS Snowfall from both events though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The GFS accums are pretty pedestrian... why is that... warm layer? Mostly because QPF is less than .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well seeing as the Euro GFS both show that Gene, people ain't saying anything Yeah I'd be confident in at least Advisory level at this point, especially if the ECM comes in similar. Warning snow possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Canadian is still snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Mostly because QPF is less than .5" I don't buy the GFS given the NAM and EURO are in line with one another, we will know more in a few hours time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GGEM is still a clean whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Soo... the GFS beat everyone out on early call... This was hinted for a couple days but not until last eve's 00z run did the operational run lead the pack with a solid dump. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is still a clean whiff. Painfully consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I thought the GFS ensembles beat out every model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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