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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Somewhere near Ginx, Bob, or Blizz, someone could get 24"

I definitely wouldn't forecast it... but it wouldn't surprise me if where the heaviest band sets up and picots if someone's pulled 24".

Hard to beleive in such a fast moving system... but if it's 3/4" per hour... anything is possible I suppose

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope. I rather see that, then the Kuchera crap.

agree. Just easier for most to ween on numbers. I would love more in depth posts like OceanWX does with all the zig and the zags, youve done it before too...I'm actually looking at tons of stuff right now but I am not quite there yet with the thought process. Would like to learn more. 

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Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Yeah when Harvey jumps in with both feet it's I get goose bumps.

 

I remember feeling pretty good when he was still gung ho in the mid-level magic storm in Feb 2015...everyone else panicked and cut amounts but he stayed big and IU felt better about my own forecast staying big in that one. He rarely screws up. The experience definitely helps...esp forecasting in New England.

 

This one has all the trademarks of a classic nuke...there aren't a lot of Bruce Willis caution flags for cutting amounts. The only real limiting factor is speed...everything else is total gangbusters.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I remember feeling pretty good when he was still gung ho in the mid-level magic storm in Feb 2015...everyone else panicked and cut amounts but he stayed big and IU felt better about my own forecast staying big in that one. He rarely screws up. The experience definitely helps...esp forecasting in New England.

 

This one has all the trademarks of a classic nuke...there aren't a lot of Bruce Willis caution flags for cutting amounts. The only real limiting factor is speed...everything else is total gangbusters.

Will is this storm getting longer in duration?

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember feeling pretty good when he was still gung ho in the mid-level magic storm in Feb 2015...everyone else panicked and cut amounts but he stayed big and IU felt better about my own forecast staying big in that one. He rarely screws up. The experience definitely helps...esp forecasting in New England.

 

This one has all the trademarks of a classic nuke...there aren't a lot of Bruce Willis caution flags for cutting amounts. The only real limiting factor is speed...everything else is total gangbusters.

Yeah only a couple of times, last Feb being one he undersold up to game time. Harvey is an institution. He knows things

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2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Will is this storm getting longer in duration?

Not really...I mean the NAM trended toward the Euro which lasted a bit longer because the NAM was whisking out faster being less amped. But it's still generally about a 10-12 hour storm...maybe a couple hours longer if you count weenie snow at the end along the coast. If we tighten up everything even more, then we could maybe buy another hour or two...but that's about it.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not really...I mean the NAM trended toward the Euro which lasted a bit longer because the NAM was whisking out faster being less amped. But it's still generally about a 10-12 hour storm...maybe a couple hours longer if you count weenie snow at the end along the coast. If we tighten up everything even more, then we could maybe buy another hour or two...but that's about it.

Thanks. Very impressive if most area's get those amounts in that time span.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

agree. Just easier for most to ween on numbers. I would love more in depth posts like OceanWX does with all the zig and the zags, youve done it before too...I'm actually looking at tons of stuff right now but I am not quite there yet with the thought process. Would like to learn more. 

I know...I used to do more in-depth posts...but it's just easy on the phone sometimes and tough to do that. Ok, here is some stuff. So we talk about frontogenesis and all that stuff. Basically it is a term that describes tightening up the temp gradient over a given horizontal space. What you have is strong convergence as you see and those winds coming up from the S and SE at 40-50 kts basically stopped like a brick wall. This means air will rise. Notice the wind convergence on either side of that H7 boundary. Also, while theta-e (the combo of temp and humidity) is better for showing thermal packing..you can see how we have warm air advection from the SE of H7 and then cold ae advection on the other side of the H7 low.

 

 

H7_18.PNG

H7_21.PNG

H7temp.PNG

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just watched Harv's full 11pm weather segment...he really laid it out nicely. Still the best in the biz all these years.

I showed my wife and daughter that segment and then played the boyish Harvey forecasting the blizzard of '78. He is superb.

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