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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

So if I understand this right, this would suggest a heavy frontogenic band fairly far inland.  That is my hope with this storm as this plot you have shared suggest heavy snows up north of the Mass/ NH border

Correct... there will likely be an enhanced band further inland that will be tapping into the best lift that coincides with the -12 to -18C dendritic growth zone. Thats how you can get those huge dendritic aggregates that produce the best snowfall liquid ratios. 

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2 minutes ago, phil882 said:

Correct... there will likely be an enhanced band further inland that will be tapping into the best lift that coincides with the -12 to -18C dendritic growth zone. Thats how you can get those huge dendritic aggregates that produce the best snowfall liquid ratios. 

I think there will be one that starts in the areas you mentioned and then that shifts and consolidates perhaps further east. 

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When things continue to improve when we get close it usually means we're going to get clobbered.  Good luck everyone!

This is an interesting statement.  I wonder the truth to this? It certainly seems true. Any duds come to mind when modeling guidance continually ramped up leading to an event.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there will be one that starts in the areas you mentioned and then that shifts and consolidates perhaps further east. 

There's like a finger of excellent fronto that starts off to the west...even almost near ALB and S VT...esp during the early morning hours...then as the mid-levels nuke out, it congeals to the southeast over central/eastern regions.

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We have two separate southern stream shortwaves right now impacting the storm formation.  The first lead shortwave is fueling the thunderstorm development of the storm system this afternoon over KY and then the secondary shortwave is over MO firing up the snow shield of the storm.  Right now the lead shortwave is expected to phase into the secondary shortwave trough and create our monster blizzard as the northern stream trough enters the picture.  there are a lot of moving pieces moving through the flow right now.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there will be one that starts in the areas you mentioned and then that shifts and consolidates perhaps further east. 

 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's like a finger of excellent fronto that starts off to the west...even almost near ALB and S VT...esp during the early morning hours...then as the mid-levels nuke out, it congeals to the southeast over central/eastern regions.

Completely agree with you both. As the cyclone really gets cranking, the sloped frontogenesis that is further north and west at 700-600 hPa should crash east and become more aligned with lower level frontogenesis associated with the rapidly deepening cyclone. Feel like somebody in C-E Massachusetts is really going to in for some incredible snowfall rates by tomorrow midday. 

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Just now, phil882 said:

 

Completely agree with you both. As the cyclone really gets cranking, the sloped frontogenesis that is further north and west at 700-600 hPa should crash east and become more aligned with lower level frontogenesis associated with the rapidly deepening cyclone. Feel like somebody in C-E Massachusetts is really going to in for some incredible snowfall rates by tomorrow midday. 

Those fronto depictions on Dr Harts site are something I don't think I recall with gray scale 24 average frontogenesis. 

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

We have two separate southern stream shortwaves right now impacting the storm formation.  The first lead shortwave is fueling the thunderstorm development of the storm system this afternoon over KY and then the secondary shortwave is over MO firing up the snow shield of the storm.  Right now the lead shortwave is expected to phase into the secondary shortwave trough and create our monster blizzard as the northern stream trough enters the picture.  there are a lot of moving pieces moving through the flow right now.

It's really one more linear vort max stretched from IL through MO.

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