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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, NAM is too amped....disregard that portion of my last post.

Just getting caught up....crazy day.

Actually, I was thinking the opposite. Not necessarily that the NAM wasn't amped enough, but that it (and the other models) were underplaying the strength of the shortwave and an amped solution makes sense.

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On 2/4/2017 at 10:10 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe we sneak something in over the next few weeks... I definitely wouldn't count on it though. 

Looks pretty meh overall 

 

On 2/4/2017 at 10:52 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

No reason to get invested. Just accept the crappy hand winter dealt us all and move on 

 

On 2/4/2017 at 11:16 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

next wknd bears to watch imo. 

 

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually, I was thinking the opposite. Not necessarily that the NAM wasn't amped enough, but that it (and the other models) were underplaying the strength of the shortwave and an amped solution makes sense.

I'm not worried about that yet.....development so often slows at the last moment.

I can see this kicking east a bit late in the game.

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The example I keep using is for a warm layer of +1C. The Kuchera method if your max temp aloft is warmer than -2C would say your ratio is 12 + 2*(271.16-MaxTemp)

Now a +1C warm layer is most likely sleet. But Kuchera would say 12 + 2*(-3) = 6:1. That's pretty damn high for a sleet ratio.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The example I keep using is for a warm layer of +1C. The Kuchera method if your max temp aloft is warmer than -2C would say your ratio is 12 + 2*(271.16-MaxTemp)

Now a +1C warm layer is most likely sleet. But Kuchera would say 12 + 2*(-3) = 6:1. That's pretty damn high for a sleet ratio.

So as long as mid level temps aren't marginal, its better?

As in this event?

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So as long as mid level temps aren't marginal, its better?

As in this event?

It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. 

Cobb and Kuchera are what I have been using for years and blended have had pretry good results, both are showing on average a 14 or 15 to 1 overall ratio.

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40 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. 

Oh, yes....SGZ needs to be fully saturated, and between roughly -16-20C....

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