WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10-15 sounds dandy...lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Have we had a widespread foot possibility since 2 years ago? I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Up here some of that is today's on the Ukie, But still impressive You can change the start time on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Anyone have a though on what the ratios might be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You can change the start time on that map. Forgot about that, Still a good hit with 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 GEFS 24h QPF for the humpers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6z para GFS looks a lot more like the 12z GFS than the 6z. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 While the UKIE is good, it's not that good; you're including all of today in there. 8-10" for most on it is more realistic. Regardless, looks like we're in the game for a widespread warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Any rain to snow issues for the Plymouth area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, rnaude241 said: Any rain to snow issues for the Plymouth area? Maybe at the onset. Probably flip to wet snow and then powder second half. GFS looked pasty for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Too soon to drop the blizzard like conditions at the coast line? Jimothy blown off the Cape on the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Indv GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SR Airglow said: While the UKIE is good, it's not that good; you're including all of today in there. 8-10" for most on it is more realistic. Regardless, looks like we're in the game for a widespread warning event. Yeah, it's a solid warning event with upwards of a foot. This compared to the distinct possibility of a whiff a day ago. It's only "not that good" if you are MECS-hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Indv GEFS It's a fashion look. A look full of fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GEFS 24h QPF for the humpers. QPF highest south but high snow total north. Kinda weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Indv GEFS Mean snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: While the UKIE is good, it's not that good; you're including all of today in there. 8-10" for most on it is more realistic. Regardless, looks like we're in the game for a widespread warning event. If it bombed as depicted you'd get 12--18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CarverWX said: QPF highest south but high snow total north. Kinda weird. Highest snow will always be N of the highest qpf. Ratios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Rain thermal bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Wow guys...that GFS run is sick. Enjoy. That really is awesome. You are the best sport on this site bro - hands down... A man of valor and distinction among your peers in that regard - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Rain It will be a wet snow in far SE areas with rain for a little while on the CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: thermal bias Probably. Just explaining why the GEFS showed what they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mean snow Pretty colors but they mean nothing without noting what they indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I guess my point was I don't see it raining here. Maybe a wetter snow to start.The GFS seems to always show us being warmer so the snow maps suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: If you get crazy rates and explosive bombogensis i don't think 1-2 feet is out of the question, I wouldn't forecast that right now though. Feb 5th 2001 was a fast mover but dropped 1-2 feet for most of the state in less than a 12hr period. Dude ... oh man - do you know how hard it is to reel Kevin in and you say this! ? ahahah. j/k... Yeah, actually ..truth be told I was thinking that whether 1-2" verified or not... what's the difference when the GFS snow maps paint 12 to 18 - ...doesn't that count? But more specific to Meteorology, this thing still has one fantastic frotogenic look to it... This thing could snow 3 or 4" /hr in a meso band or two, no problem with that look. OceanWx was confirming that look yesterday using their methods ...it seems like slam dunk. Open wave 120 knt 500 mb jet core passing 1.5 (quintessential climo) lat/lon E of ISP and the q-vector forcing is off the charts so some sort of deepening rate isn't shocking in the models there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Without a doubt. I think our S. Curry debbie up in West Hartford wins the title. Been chucking this winter since December and throwing nightly tantrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pretty colors but they mean nothing without noting what they indicate. Mainly 10-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I would never forecast over 12-14" in this setup until closer in...this moves fast. You need a lot of things to line up to get huge amounts when the bulk of the snow is a 6-8 hour storm. Possible? Yes. There's some impressive sigs on this system, but it could just as easily be 6-8 hours of 1-2" per hour and there's your 9-14"...with maybe a lolli 16-18". I'm gonna want to see some monster fronto and maybe some -EPV inside of 30 hours to start forecasting widespread 1-2 feet. Or somehow capture this storm so it turns into a 12-15 hour storm instead of <10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, CarverWX said: I guess my point was I don't see it raining here. Maybe a wetter snow to start.The GFS seems to always show us being warmer so the snow maps suck. It could be a real man snow for a little while there. But I honestly would not get too cute with ratios, totals etc yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CarverWX said: I guess my point was I don't see it raining here. Maybe a wetter snow to start.The GFS seems to always show us being warmer so the snow maps suck. And I'll agree with you. Looks like a wet paste job or "Man snow" as the weenies like to call it. It's low level warmth that will be easily obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.