Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Ggem has nothing, rain showers for mid Atlantic 

When the GGEM is so much different than the Euro/GFS blend it's not even worth mentioning. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 925mb warm layer shifts Southeast of NYC between 03 and 04z. So roughly half the precip in the city falls with 925mb above freezing. 

The surface on the other hand remains above freezing for a few more hours.

Verbatim for the coast the GFS is rain to sleet to a few inches of sloppy snow early Thursday morning.

With dynamic and evaporative cooling this will be all snow Monmouth and north In my opinion. Just look at the nam!

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

With dynamic and evaporative cooling this will be all snow Monmouth and north In my opinion. Just look at the nam!

The GFS depicts a 1001mb surface low. This isn't a wound up storm that's going to produce strong dynamics. It's just a well placed surface low riding the boundary.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

When the GGEM is so much different than the Euro/GFS blend it's not even worth mentioning. 

Personally i dont think the GGEM is ever worth taking seriously, quick glance for entertainment....

[mimillman]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS depicts a 1001mb surface low. This isn't a wound up storm that's going to produce strong dynamics. It's just a well placed surface low riding the boundary.

Indeed, which is why we either need a more dynamic NAM solution or a further south Euro solution if the city is going to get snow out of this. GFS looks good for HV and New England, not so great for the city. The column isn't cold enough either, so snow growth would be pitiful. 

[NJwx85]

The 12z UKMET looks flat at first glance.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just now, mimillman said:

Indeed, which is why we either need a more dynamic NAM solution or a further south Euro solution if the city is going to get snow out of this. GFS looks good for HV and New England, not so great for the city. The column isn't cold enough either, so snow growth would be pitiful. 

GFS isn't that bad 2+ days out, better involment with the northern stream and we could be in business for something bigger 

[WeatherFeen2000]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS depicts a 1001mb surface low. This isn't a wound up storm that's going to produce strong dynamics. It's just a well placed surface low riding the boundary.

When I look at the GFS I just look for the track, the meso models are better at dynamics, not to mention GFS is always a warmer model than others. I don't see this as rain, to snow I see this low strengthening and producing Some sleet at the onset to heavy snow and staying snow throughout the whole event. You know the GFS is the warmest model here

[NJwx85]

Just now, mimillman said:

Indeed, which is why we either need a more dynamic NAM solution or a further south Euro solution if the city is going to get snow out of this. GFS looks good for HV and New England, not so great for the city. The column isn't cold enough either, so snow growth would be pitiful. 

He doesn't even know what he's talking about when he mentions dynamic cooling. He sees pretty blue colors on a map and thinks that equals a blizzard. 

At least the from about 850mb and up the atmosphere is plenty cold enough for all snow, and most of it looks to fall overnight, so we have that going for us.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

When I look at the GFS I just look for the track, the meso models are better at dynamics, not to mention GFS is always a warmer model than others. I don't see this as rain, to snow I see this low strengthening and producing Some sleet at the onset to heavy snow and staying snow throughout the whole event. You know the GFS is the warmest model here

This is a classic example of the NAM overdoing precipitation. 

[SnowGoose69]

I just looked at soundings and used JFK.  At 64 hours it's 41/34 at the surface and no layer is above 0C above that.  780mb is close.  925 is -0.5C but I'm not buying the 925 temps because at hour 60-62 the 925mb dewpoint is 26F with a big area for evaporative cooling potential.  With no significant WAA in that layer I don't see why 925 isn't much colder by hour 64-65.  As of now my only concern would be surface temps assuming the 34 dewpoint is correct.  As we get closer we will have to see what the RGEM and NAM show since they handle surface cold pushes from the NW better than the GFS 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

This is a classic example of the NAM overdoing precipitation. 

How so?

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z UKMET looks flat at first glance.

It looks way slower.  I'm not sure if it will turn the corner after 72 or go right OTS

[NJwx85]

The 12z NAM bufkit for KJKF has the surface in the lower 40's

170207/1100Z  23  15004KT  42.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
170207/1200Z  24  15005KT  41.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170207/1300Z  25  16005KT  41.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
170207/1400Z  26  16005KT  41.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|  0
170207/1500Z  27  17006KT  42.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|100
170207/1600Z  28  17006KT  43.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|  0
170207/1700Z  29  17006KT  46.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|  0
170207/1800Z  30  16008KT  45.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170207/1900Z  31  17008KT  44.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21    0|  0|100
170207/2000Z  32  17006KT  43.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22    0|  0|100

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z NAM bufkit for KJKF has the surface in the lower 40's

170207/1100Z  23  15004KT  42.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
170207/1200Z  24  15005KT  41.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170207/1300Z  25  16005KT  41.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
170207/1400Z  26  16005KT  41.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|  0
170207/1500Z  27  17006KT  42.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|100
170207/1600Z  28  17006KT  43.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|  0
170207/1700Z  29  17006KT  46.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|  0
170207/1800Z  30  16008KT  45.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170207/1900Z  31  17008KT  44.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21    0|  0|100
170207/2000Z  32  17006KT  43.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22    0|  0|100

Yeah not sure what is up with that.  The NAM MOS at 72 hours which is about when the precipitation is moving in is 36/25 at JFK 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

How so?

 

 

Because the LLJ is much further NW than the concensus, which is throwing stronger dynamics further NW than reality. Probably a result of the NAM's NW and amped bias at this range.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah not sure what is up with that.  The NAM MOS at 72 hours which is about when the precipitation is moving in is 36/25 at JFK 

Yeah it even has MMU as all rain. Wonder why that is.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Because the LLJ is much further NW than the concensus, which is throwing stronger dynamics further NW than reality. Probably a result of the NAM's NW and amped bias at this range.

The UKMET looking like the NAM as far as speed and timing at 72 may be good news for the coast.  The later this arrives the better probably.  No guarantee the UKMET will end up as deep as the NAM though just because it's timing is similar 

[friedmators]

[brooklynwx99]

12z GEFS still looks good. 

LP locations

Precip

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

It's going to take some epic rates to offset the warm ground in the metro. This has a slushy car topper written all over it. We need to more then just thread the needle. Looks like another inland elevated special. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It's going to take some epic rates to offset the warm ground in the metro. This has a slushy car topper written all over it. We need to more then just thread the needle. Looks like another inland elevated special. 

I think you'll have to rethink that because it's been relatively cold and the ground is for sure cold as is. Once the heavy precip moves in with falling temps this will have no problem accumulating especially with the precipitation moving in at night.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I think you'll have to rethink that because it's been relatively cold and the ground is for sure cold as is. Once the heavy precip moves in with falling temps this will have no problem accumulating especially with the precipitation moving in at night.

40s and 50s with rain tomorrow and Wednesday

[forkyfork]

this is exactly the type of storm to deliver a secs in this otherwise meh pattern 

[NJwx85]

The Euro is coming in slow and looks like the UKMET through 60hrs.

[dmillz25]

The Euro looks flatter this run

[ag3]

Euro is very cold and no issues for the coastal locations. It's also further south and leaves the interior with little precip.

[NJwx85]

Euro is a coastal scrapper. 1-3" for the city and LI. 4-6" for Monmouth and CNJ.

[jm1220]

31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It's going to take some epic rates to offset the warm ground in the metro. This has a slushy car topper written all over it. We need to more then just thread the needle. Looks like another inland elevated special. 

We would need something like the NAM to really pound snow down and cool the column. Also we need it to be a little slow so that cold air can get here in time. It's possible this can be a nice event areawide but just as likely it's what you describe near the coast. Lot of bust potential either way. 

[nzucker]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Euro is a coastal scrapper. 1-3" for the city and LI. 4-6" for Monmouth and CNJ.

Euro tends to be a little light on QPF. Having a little wiggle room for this to trend north and warmer, is a good thing. Better than the Euro showing a rainstorm with the track too far north.