SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Para Nams a foot for everyone with ratios Timing wise the Para Nam moved away from the RGEM so we will see if that happens in about 30 minutes with the RGEM. At 18Z the Para was noticeably slower still than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: I agree but the NAM is probably overdoing it along with the strength of the band it has-its a known bias, and the other models aren't doing this. I would expect snow amounts to be a little lighter in the band and a little higher outside it. I do think there will be relative max and min amounts, but not to the degree the NAM has. I don't know if I necessarily agree with that logic. Dynamic events tend to have crazy cut offs. I think there will be a crazy cut off between the subsidence and the defo band, but I do not trust the NAM this far out to predict exactly where the defo band will be. I give a lot of credit to the mesoscale models as of late given their performance with other events, but I think we need some more time hashing out the details of the defo band location. For all of our sakes, I hope the subsidence is over the Atlantic, and maybe over Boston because they're too lucky too often. Plus, the Patriots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don't believe warmth is the problem. I think the column cools down fast enough to support mostly if not all snow in the metro and central NJ. The problem is subsidence as modeled clearly below: Dude, we still get around 9 inches on this run with around 12 inches on the Nam Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Dude, we still get around 9 inches on this run with around 12 inches on the Nam Para Don't look at precipitation amounts, look at the signal. You should know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM might, the GFS most likely would never have the ability to show what the NAM did because it's resolution isn't good enough This always was, is and will be a very fast mover. Real progressive pattern. There is no big -NAO block on the frontside of it to slow the super fast flow down. In a winter like we've had, no one should be mad at a 5-10+ inch snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: This always was, is and will be a very fast mover. Real progressive pattern. There is no big -NAO block on the frontside of it to slow the super fast flow down. In a winter like we've had, no one should be mad at a 5-10+ inch snow event Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This always was, is and will be a very fast mover. Real progressive pattern. There is no big -NAO block on the frontside of it to slow the super fast flow down. In a winter like we've had, no one should be mad at a 5-10+ inch snow event Agree I should be near 20 inches after this storm is done with possibly more snow coming in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes but why are you complaining? Lol I don't think I'm complaining. I think I'm talking about possible outcomes and clarifying that this might not even affect us, but will affect someone in the subforum. I went into this even this morning thinking 4-7" for the metro, and now I think that should be closer to 6-12". I'm nowhere near complaining haha. BUT, subsidence will be an issue. Just don't know where quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 24 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Morris county jackpot on the nam I'm cool with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Lol I don't think I'm complaining. I think I'm talking about possible outcomes and clarifying that this might not even affect us, but will affect someone in the subforum. I went into this even this morning thinking 4-7" for the metro, and now I think that should be closer to 6-12". I'm nowhere near complaining haha. BUT, subsidence will be an issue. Just don't know where quite yet. But isn't this usually the case somewhere? In the Feb 26 2010 storm, my area in central NJ had lower amounts than the surrounding ones, by a lot. But it was still a decent snow. We just didn't hit the huge amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, North and West of Town said: I'm cool with that. Normally me too but I'll be at the gf in Berkeley heights about 20 miles west south west lol I think anywhere on the 78 corridor does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Through 36 RGEM looks like the NAM. 7mb deeper same spot roughly off Delaware or NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: But isn't this usually the case somewhere? In the Feb 26 2010 storm, my area in central NJ had lower amounts than the surrounding ones, by a lot. But it was still a decent snow. We just didn't hit the huge amounts. Yea I agree. I just caution people saying amounts area-wide will be 10-12", while I think maybe a band will hit 10-12 and the rest of us will hit closer to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Rough guess on black and white maps is 10 inches for NYC from the RGEM. It most definitely doesn't look as far NW with the precip field after 36 although we don't have the three hour color maps yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Rough guess on black and white maps is 10 inches for NYC from the RGEM. It most definitely doesn't look as far NW with the precip field after 36 although we don't have the three hour color maps yet Looks way NW of 18z, similar to Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks way NW of 18z, similar to Nam I need to start using that link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I need to start using that link Crush job for everyone on RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 CCB crushes NNJ, SNY, NYC. LI on RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 amazing model consensus on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: CCB crushes NNJ, SNY, NYC. LI on RGEM Adding it up I got near 22-25mm for NYC but again hard to tell til we get the color precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 She really cranks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Definitely SE of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: She really cranks I like just to the southeast of your area for the snowfall maximum. Harriman-West Point line looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 RGEM is near a foot of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I like just to the southeast of your area for the snowfall maximum. Harriman-West Point line looks solid. Long Island jackpots on RGEM, but RGEM has been all over, was 970 monster 6 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Oh my 14"+ lollipops on LI and CT from RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 RGEM precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The rgem is not like the nam. It's stronger and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Long Island jackpots on RGEM, but RGEM has been all over, was 970 monster 6 hours ago... The RGEM is risky til inside 36 much like the NAM. You don't usually see huge changes from it but you usually see changes once inside 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.