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Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017


WeatherFeen2000

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6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

At this rate, with 2" on the ground and maybe 4-5 hours of good snowfall left (or less), the 8-12" prediction for most of Central Jersey will have a hard time verifying, unless we get 2" per hour rates much of the time...

i agree I don't think we get there, this is going to be a nice storm but hardly one to write home about. A but disappointed but with fast moving systems gotta take what you can get, and after this mild winter, this is nice. If we do get to 8-10, that will be some serious snow rates. But I just don't see it,we are snowing hard and steady with some breaks in intensity, but it is not enough to lay down higher amounts. We'll see.

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On 2/7/2017 at 9:33 AM, jm1220 said:

NAM sticking with that wicked snow band well north and west near I-84. Look out for something of a snow hole just south of that due to some subsidence. But overall it should be a crazy 9-12 hours Thursday AM. 

How bout that NAM predicting that band since Tuesday morning?? lol The NAM is not to be taken lightly anymore!

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i agree I don't think we get there, this is going to be a nice storm but hardly one to write home about. A but disappointed but with fast moving systems gotta take what you can get, and after this mild winter, this is nice. If we do get to 8-10, that will be some serious snow rates. But I just don't see it,we are snowing hard and steady with some breaks in intensity, but it is not enough to lay down higher amounts. We'll see.

Rayno made a pretty good call. LI/SNE the place to be with this one. The city is missing out on those big time rates and except for Queens, I doubt most will see much more than 6-7". Ppl got too hung up on the qpf output. Upper air and climatology the key.

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As of 8 am, we have 3.5" of snow on the ground - that was 2" the last hour and it's still coming down pretty heavily.  Still not sure we make it to 8", but we do have a few more hours of good snowfall rates ahead.  

As of 10 am, we have 5" on the ground, so not as much per hour as earlier (that's 0.75"/hour vs. 2"/hour before).  Looking like the snow is ending out by the Delaware River soon and will likely be over by noon around the I-95 corridor.  Will be surprised if we make it to 8" - maybe 6-7" here.  Will likely be a minor bust for most in the CNJ area, as snowfall is not reaching the general 8-12" forecast in Central Jersey.  Still a nice snowstorm.  

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41 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 10 am, we have 5" on the ground, so not as much per hour as earlier (that's 0.75"/hour vs. 2"/hour before).  Looking like the snow is ending out by the Delaware River soon and will likely be over by noon around the I-95 corridor.  Will be surprised if we make it to 8" - maybe 6-7" here.  Will likely be a minor bust for most in the CNJ area, as snowfall is not reaching the general 8-12" forecast in Central Jersey.  Still a nice snowstorm.  

Agreed. Ending up around 8 here at MMU. In line with the PNS for Morris County. Reminds me of February 8, 1994.

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1 hour ago, Rittenhouse said:

Rayno made a pretty good call. LI/SNE the place to be with this one. The city is missing out on those big time rates and except for Queens, I doubt most will see much more than 6-7". Ppl got too hung up on the qpf output. Upper air and climatology the key.

NWS had 8-12 for the city and I think that will verify for most locations. The central park guys have been asleep since 7 though, so who knows.

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Rarely comment these days, but KNYC is going to end up around 1.1 inches liquid... Seems pretty good and in-line with what was printed out on most of the models. Should be between 10-12 inches of snow, depending on ratios. 

The forecast for KNYC wasn't a bust but the models overestimated the snow for locations south. KPHL ended with 0.8" of snow. Sharp cutoff.

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