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Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017


WeatherFeen2000

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winter makes a potentially dramatic comeback on Thursday following a
very mild Wednesday. Then warm advection comes back for the weekend.

Cold FROPA on Wednesday with some spotty light rain still around in
the morning. FCST max temps, mid to upper 50s, are within a few
degrees of records.

The system of interest is late Wednesday night into Thursday. Have
focused on ECMWF and GFS/GEFS for the forecast. The dynamics of
interest is energy still out in the Pacific where pattern is rather
chaotic with a Rex Block currently over Alaska. This energy
undercuts the Block and rapidly tracks east. The other energy is in
the north stream shortwave and is coming down the eastern side of
the Rex Block from around 80 degrees north.

The NWP is rather impressive with the rapid, but progressive
cyclogenesis. GEFS members support categorical POPs. (Note, am
discounting the NAM and CMC operational runs as do not believe
they`re fully capturing the energy.)  The jet structure seen is also
impressive (though not exactly textbook). A coupled Jet with
130+ KT maxes is noted over the northeast in the predawn hours.

The other issues are boundary layer temps and timing.  Temps appear
such that they should support mainly snow or rain changing to snow
along the coast. Timing, which is focused on Thursday morning, could
be 6 hours faster or slower as seen in the GEFS.

As for amounts - there are members of the GEFS with over an inch of
liquid. believe that is over a 30% potential for 6" plus. Thus,
we`ll start an "outlook" for this system. POPs were raised to likely
along the coast, but expect POPs to rise as uncertainty diminishes
over the next few days.
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14 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

It's going to have to be a thread the needle on this one I think. Not a lot of wiggle room between either cold enough but only little precip and lot of precip but too warm.

We need the heavy precip solution so we get a more dynamic system otherwise it's going to be white rain. We need a system that the GFS showed last night 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Nam has been very warm with this system

Not according to nam we don't but essentially you want a more dynamic system so you get more than just snow on the grass is what I'm saying. Last night GFS would be perfect but it's too bad 6z GFS was like 3 inches if that went down from 6-10 inches for the city 

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This needs to be further south than what the GFS solution showed in order for the metro to get snow. 6z GFS was too warm, cold rain for 50% of the storm. Euro was perfect.

Perfect if you live in central Jersey anyone north of the city is scrooed with the Euro run. Plenty of time for those details to be worked out. 

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1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

EPS has a much better grasp on this at 00z than 12z yesterday 

Upton has a great writeup. This will all have to do with timing. Let's get the Tuesday event out of here first. The Thursday event might just come down to "nowcasting".

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winter makes a potentially dramatic comeback on Thursday following a
very mild Wednesday. Then warm advection comes back for the weekend.

Cold FROPA on Wednesday with some spotty light rain still around in
the morning. FCST max temps, mid to upper 50s, are within a few
degrees of records.

The system of interest is late Wednesday night into Thursday. Have
focused on ECMWF and GFS/GEFS for the forecast. The dynamics of
interest is energy still out in the Pacific where pattern is rather
chaotic with a Rex Block currently over Alaska. This energy
undercuts the Block and rapidly tracks east. The other energy is in
the north stream shortwave and is coming down the eastern side of
the Rex Block from around 80 degrees north.

The NWP is rather impressive with the rapid, but progressive
cyclogenesis. GEFS members support categorical POPs. (Note, am
discounting the NAM and CMC operational runs as do not believe
they`re fully capturing the energy.)  The jet structure seen is also
impressive (though not exactly textbook). A coupled Jet with
130+ KT maxes is noted over the northeast in the predawn hours.

The other issues are boundary layer temps and timing.  Temps appear
such that they should support mainly snow or rain changing to snow
along the coast. Timing, which is focused on Thursday morning, could
be 6 hours faster or slower as seen in the GEFS.

As for amounts - there are members of the GEFS with over an inch of
liquid. believe that is over a 30% potential for 6" plus. Thus,
we`ll start an "outlook" for this system. POPs were raised to likely
along the coast, but expect POPs to rise as uncertainty diminishes
over the next few days.

Otherwise, high pressure builds in for Friday followed by a
prolonged overrunning period for the weekend with light drizzle
and/or light rain possible.  Based on current temp forecast - some
ZR is possible well inland.
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These storms that are a race between cold air and precip are always dangerous. There's good potential for a snowy event if the low organizes enough and cold air arrives in time, otherwise it could be a cold or white rain, or a graze. It'll be another day before this gets sorted out. The best potential for something significant IMO is a narrow band just NW of I-95. 

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