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Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017


WeatherFeen2000

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3 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said:

I favor this output over the kuchera

Definitely. The warm ground still means something-the initial snow will be slushy, and counting on huge ratios is always risky, but this run still supports 12+ for this subforum. But it does shaft places southwest of here towards Philly, it's a matter of how the radar presents and the cold air pressing south. Hopefully all can get in on the fun. 

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Just now, BL03 said:

If NYC gets 18-20"  from 1.1-1.2" liquid , then this will be amazing.    12" would be a win , more bonus.   We'll find out soon. 

I wouldn't go much over 10-1 given the warm initial conditions. The initial precip will fall as rain, sleet or wet/slow accumulating snow. Hopefully that doesn't account for much. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

I wouldn't go much over 10-1 given the warm initial conditions. The initial precip will fall as rain, sleet or wet/slow accumulating snow. Hopefully that doesn't account for much. 

I'd take a half hour of heavy sleet. Would be beneficial, takes longer to melt and would cool ground surfaces. Radar is very convective and I'd imagine the column will cool rapidly.

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Kuchera Euro has a 31 spot over Foxboro/Easton area in SE Mass 

i mean... have to guess that's forcing it a bit 

Your problem in these storms: Coastal front banding or well inland banding. 

Ours: Watching to the southwest and praying the heavy snow cutoff stops before us when these last minute model shifts inevitably happen. 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn't go much over 10-1 given the warm initial conditions. The initial precip will fall as rain, sleet or wet/slow accumulating snow. Hopefully that doesn't account for much. 

Agreed - going over 10:1, at least for areas which will definitely start as rain to sleet, leading to moderate melting of snow to begin with and to slushier/denser snow once the snow begins to accumulate is not smart to do.  Once the first inch or so of snow is down, then higher ratios might occur, especially with dropping surface temps and better snow growth.  So one could imagine a ratio of 5-7:1 for the first 0.2-0.3" of LE, then maybe 10:1 for the next 0.2", then maybe 12-14:1 for the last 0.6", which would likely be about 11:1 overall.  That's what I'm expecting here.  Maybe it'll be 15:1 north of I-80 where it's all snow.  

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1 minute ago, NYCGreg said:

Temps back on the rise here in Hoboken.  Dropping everywhere but here evidently.  Up to nearly 43 degrees, so up 1 degree in 25 minutes.

my wind in Cranford just shifted from the North to the Northeast, I imagine a bit of NYC "heat" coming over your locale briefly

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Just now, nycemt123 said:


It should look bad enough by 6am that I'd be able to qualify my staying home, correct?

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Probably, should be coming down pretty hard by then by you. And consider the trip back home given what happens in between. Unless it's necessary I'd skip it. I'm still posting because I'm not heading in in the morning. 

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Probably, should be coming down pretty hard by then by you. And consider the trip back home given what happens in between. Unless it's necessary I'd skip it. I'm still posting because I'm not heading in in the morning. 


Understood. Thanks Jm!
Random question, you prefer the Texas floods you witnessed or this sort of snowstorm?

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5 minutes ago, nycemt123 said:


Understood. Thanks Jm!
Random question, you prefer the Texas floods you witnessed or this sort of snowstorm?

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The snow by far. There just wasn't much enjoyment for me in about a month straight of rain, plus all of the damage the floods caused. Snow is enjoyable for far more people and looks much better on the landscape than mud and debris. After what I witnessed here during Sandy, I'll never root on a hurricane again. Floods are just devastation and misery, snow for the most part is enjoyable. 

Missing last January's blizzard back home was excruciating. And I followed every bit of it in Austin even from that far away. The pictures and videos from here makes me think it matched Jan 1996. 

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