Breene Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 That rain and sleet line seems like its getting closer and closer to LI south shore every run. I think I see more mixing than progged right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: mods can delete soon after everyone sees. Beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Haha even the gfs gives us 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 FWIW, this is from a Pro Met who I knew in college: (I'm not trained, so I'm not sure what to make of it) "Some of the higher resolution mesoscale models are slowing the advance of cold air. The NAM model keeps the precipitation as all rain as late as 7 AM before changing over to snow. (For those of you who read the old FOUS tables, see the attached image. Yes, FOUS still is useful!). Some of the latest runs of the HRRR model are trending slower with the cold air as well. This means that the core of cold air might arrive after the strongest atmospheric lift and precipitation. Best guess for Central NJ: Rain starts after midnight, heavy at times. Changes to sleet sometime between 4 and 6 AM, then eventually to all snow, heavy at times during the morning. Heaviest snow will occur along the axis of heaviest precipitation across Central & Northern NJ over toward NYC, where there could be 4-8” of snow when the event wraps up around lunchtime. Less snow to the south near Philly where it will be warmer. Some of the private sector websites that publish maps of model data are using a ridiculous scheme for determining the snow ratio (they assume it will be light and fluffy tomorrow — not!). Showing these maps is horribly irresponsible. Be skeptical of model snowfall maps you see posted online today!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Wow.. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, North and West of Town said: FWIW, this is from a Pro Met who I knew in college: (I'm not trained, so I'm not sure what to make of it) "Some of the higher resolution mesoscale models are slowing the advance of cold air. The NAM model keeps the precipitation as all rain as late as 7 AM before changing over to snow. (For those of you who read the old FOUS tables, see the attached image. Yes, FOUS still is useful!). Some of the latest runs of the HRRR model are trending slower with the cold air as well. This means that the core of cold air might arrive after the strongest atmospheric lift and precipitation. Best guess for Central NJ: Rain starts after midnight, heavy at times. Changes to sleet sometime between 4 and 6 AM, then eventually to all snow, heavy at times during the morning. Heaviest snow will occur along the axis of heaviest precipitation across Central & Northern NJ over toward NYC, where there could be 4-8” of snow when the event wraps up around lunchtime. Less snow to the south near Philly where it will be warmer. Some of the private sector websites that publish maps of model data are using a ridiculous scheme for determining the snow ratio (they assume it will be light and fluffy tomorrow — not!). Showing these maps is horribly irresponsible. Be skeptical of model snowfall maps you see posted online today!" he's too far on the other side of the spectrum. lol 4-8 in the "heaviest" and no one is buying the output verbatim (i think the ratios are way too high personally) - this is regionwide 8-12 lollis to 15, maybe a spot 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The HRDPS is the Gem-Lam. Its a high res version of the Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, North and West of Town said: FWIW, this is from a Pro Met who I knew in college: (I'm not trained, so I'm not sure what to make of it) "Some of the higher resolution mesoscale models are slowing the advance of cold air. The NAM model keeps the precipitation as all rain as late as 7 AM before changing over to snow. (For those of you who read the old FOUS tables, see the attached image. Yes, FOUS still is useful!). Some of the latest runs of the HRRR model are trending slower with the cold air as well. This means that the core of cold air might arrive after the strongest atmospheric lift and precipitation. Best guess for Central NJ: Rain starts after midnight, heavy at times. Changes to sleet sometime between 4 and 6 AM, then eventually to all snow, heavy at times during the morning. Heaviest snow will occur along the axis of heaviest precipitation across Central & Northern NJ over toward NYC, where there could be 4-8” of snow when the event wraps up around lunchtime. Less snow to the south near Philly where it will be warmer. Some of the private sector websites that publish maps of model data are using a ridiculous scheme for determining the snow ratio (they assume it will be light and fluffy tomorrow — not!). Showing these maps is horribly irresponsible. Be skeptical of model snowfall maps you see posted online today!" I think the 20"+ on some of the maps is overdone, but I don't think 12+ is given he evolution of the storm. And any warm air will be gone very fast once the heavy precip starts. One of the reasons some models delay the cold air is that the storm is trending slightly slower. But from LBI and south, warm air will probably hang on longer and there accums will be cut back quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The latest HRRR has a lot of mixing problems for CNJ, including Monmouth County. It looks like the mix line could be right around Staten Island tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: he's too far on the other side of the spectrum. lol 4-8 in the "heaviest" and no one is buying the output verbatim (i think the ratios are way too high personally) - this is regionwide 8-12 lollis to 15, maybe a spot 18. thanks. he is based in Central NJ, and he's been very conservative the past few years in his forecasts, after being burned in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Time to take a break, rest up, take a nap, etc. Models are locked in. Areawide 8-15. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I think the 20"+ on some of the maps is overdone, but I don't think 12+ is given he evolution of the storm. And any warm air will be gone very fast once the heavy precip starts. One of the reasons some models delay the cold air is that the storm is trending slightly slower. But from LBI and south, warm air will probably hang on longer and there accums will be cut back quite a bit. Thanks. I appreciate the reasonable analysis for when their are thing I truly don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The only way I could see a max of 4-8 is if the storm outruns the cold air. Every model, even those short termers, is 8+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 thats a great post there. I bet you that pro met is onto something..why are all the professional mets generally 6-12 while the clown and Kuchera maps are showing 12-18..why is everyone here so confident of high ratios..isnt the temps going to be in the low 30s for a lot of this storm dropping to the upper 20s...this would be a very wet snow not light fluffy...can anyone speak to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: The HRDPS is the Gem-Lam. Its a high res version of the Rgem. It seems as if its barely budged the last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: thats a great post there. I bet you that pro met is onto something..why are all the professional mets generally 6-12 while the clown and Kuchera maps are showing 12-18..why is everyone here so confident of high ratios..isnt the temps going to be in the low 30s for a lot of this storm dropping to the upper 20s...this would be a very wet snow not light fluffy...can anyone speak to this My guess is that it is the warmth to overcome, and a storm at 32/33 degrees that might move too quickly? (Just looking at it in regards to common sense; not scientifically at all. Goodness, I've become my father!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: thats a great post there. I bet you that pro met is onto something..why are all the professional mets generally 6-12 while the clown and Kuchera maps are showing 12-18..why is everyone here so confident of high ratios..isnt the temps going to be in the low 30s for a lot of this storm dropping to the upper 20s...this would be a very wet snow not light fluffy...can anyone speak to this Just wishcasting. Every storm I follow on here I learn new dream theories of why we will see better than average ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Some mixing at the coast at the onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I mean, if the snow/mix starts light there will be some lost to the warm ground from today, but if it comes in like a wall it will start accumulating. I've seen it accumulate before at midday in April coming off a warm day prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Breene said: Just wishcasting. Every storm I follow on here I learn new dream theories of why we will see better than average ratios I think near the coast by 14Z ratios reach 11 or 12 to 1, before that probably right around 9-10:1. The winds are going to be fairly strong which doesn't help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: thats a great post there. I bet you that pro met is onto something..why are all the professional mets generally 6-12 while the clown and Kuchera maps are showing 12-18..why is everyone here so confident of high ratios..isnt the temps going to be in the low 30s for a lot of this storm dropping to the upper 20s...this would be a very wet snow not light fluffy...can anyone speak to this Nick Gregory just now on twitter went 8-12 with isolated 15" area wide imo the best on air pro met in ny. Take it fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Some mixing at the coast at the onset I've been going with all snow in NYC by 10Z, could see it being 11 though as shown there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The latest HRRR has a lot of mixing problems for CNJ, including Monmouth County. It looks like the mix line could be right around Staten Island tomorrow morning. This is a light rain to heavy snow event for this entire subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: I mean, if the snow/mix starts light there will be some lost to the warm ground from today, but if it comes in like a wall it will start accumulating. I've seen it accumulate before at midday in April coming off a warm day prior. We are forecasted to start as rain...its not a surprise. By 7 am we will all be pouring snow at obscene rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 You can also use the Cobb method which also produces very similar numbers as kuchera or just adjust it to 10:1 and most models still have NYC in 8-12 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This is a light rain to heavy snow event for this entire subforum. No way any mixing occurs up here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, swamplover56 said: You can also use the Cobb method which also produces very similar numbers as kuchera or just adjust it to 10:1 and most models still have NYC in 8-12 or more. The consensus is an inch of liquid for nyc. Even if only 10:1 and losing a bit to rain it's a bare minimum of 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: We are forecasted to start as rain...its not a surprise. By 7 am we will all be pouring snow at obscene rates. I've seen many of these storms start as rain over the years, but darn it really was warm today. I will say this, after this past year, I'm not one to sit back and assume statistical consensus equals final outcome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 temps are dropping off steadily ive gone from 55 to 47 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I suggest keeping an eye on the temperatures this evening to see how quickly they are falling, I am down to 56 here after being at 63 around an hour and a half or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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