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Feb 8-9 Potential Snow System


snowlover2

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3 km NAM is more generous on the northern end but still doesn't do ORD any good.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Really not sure how this plays out here just south of I-80. Anything from a few tenths to a couple inches seems plausible.  Banding should be a player so will have to see how that sets up.

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beggars can't be choosers, but I normally hate these kind of systems.   They come out of the miss valley juiced, then dampen out as they head east through IN and OH only to strengthen right before the coast.  Upshot....we get jumped.     But again, in this miserable dumpster of a winter, it's hard to be a snob over the potential for a sloppy inch or two.

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8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

beggars can't be choosers, but I normally hate these kind of systems.   They come out of the miss valley juiced, then dampen out as they head east through IN and OH only to strengthen right before the coast.  Upshot....we get jumped.     But again, in this miserable dumpster of a winter, it's hard to be a snob over the potential for a sloppy inch or two.

I'll take a sloppy 1" snowfall for a wintry landscape for 24 hours before we warm back into the 50's :lol: puts my seasonal total at 4.9" 

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This one is lookin like the "big one" of the lame winter in these parts. But it looks much better than even it did 24 hours ago, and temperatures have crashed much sooner and colder than previously forecast, so urban heat island looking to be no longer an issue. Given model trends, I also smell "overperformance" for some areas, perhaps here.

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2 hours ago, Chambana said:

Thanks Hoosier and Thundersnow, yes we will rely on banding, looks like Kankakee is in a "sweet spot" would love to see someone get 2-3" from this. 

Your right lookin at a map I always forgot how far north ORD is!

Living about 20 miles east of Kankakee, feeling pretty optimistic about this, unless it's a big bust it'll be our biggest snow of 2017 so far amazingly enough. But models keep trending better, so it could possibly overperform  in my opinion

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23 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

This is quite comical; donut hole right over Columbus.

good lord what a dumpster fire of a system....(at least through here).  As I said earlier, the NAM is showing the snow hop scotching us as the initial band dampens and the storm strengthens to the east.   IOW, that map verifying would not shock me.

By the way, you Ohio guys might want to flag Feb 16 thru Feb 19 on your calendars.  I'll be in Arizona those days.   When I leave town during anemic winters, we tend to get the best of it when I'm gone!

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Several of the 00z models shifted back south with the northern edge of the snow in this area compared to previous runs.  Looks like we're back to DAB, so the streak should live on here.  MLI may still be far enough south to get a wussy inch though.  Gonna be close call at DVN.

I hate to be the guy to radar hallucinate, but to me it looks like the better returns right now in Iowa are a bit north of where the 00z runs had them.  I have not checked to see what's reaching the ground though. 

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28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I hate to be the guy to radar hallucinate, but to me it looks like the better returns right now in Iowa are a bit north of where the 00z runs had them.  I have not checked to see what's reaching the ground though. 

HRRR seems to have a good handle on it to my eyes.  It has us at about 0.02", and MLI at about 0.08" on latest run.  On the plus side it's been advertising a narrow, but heavy band of accumulations right through Champaign on several of the latest runs.  Would be some good news for Chambana.

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I wasn't fully buying the south shift of the 00z-02z models based on radar returns as the storm developed. They put Ames at .4 inches of snow and they're already being dumped on even north of there. While locations/positions may vary, the name of the game intuition-wise looks to promise overperformance, for you guys to my east in Il-OH

This is a total overperformer to my delight. We have much more to come, and have about 2" on the ground already. We'll likely have 5-7" before it's over.

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HRRR is painting Champaign/Urbana to north of Indy and up to Lima, OH as the "winners" of this system.

For Columbus, temperatures will be in the 40s all day and don't drop below freezing until most of the precip is out of here. I suspect we'll start off as rain and switch to a sloppy 1" of snow that should only stick to grassy and elevated surfaces. I'd rather get nothing than get teased from the west, north, and east. Whatever falls will be gone by Saturday since we'll jump back into the 60s.

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2 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

HRRR is painting Champaign/Urbana to north of Indy and up to Lima, OH as the "winners" of this system.

For Columbus, temperatures will be in the 40s all day and don't drop below freezing until most of the precip is out of here. I suspect we'll start off as rain and switch to a sloppy 1" of snow that should only stick to grassy and elevated surfaces. I'd rather get nothing than get teased from the west, north, and east. Whatever falls will be gone by Saturday since we'll jump back into the 60s.

 

man, I really hate to be that  weenie :bag:...  and I fully understand my doppler radar may be skewed by my weenie goggles....noting all of that, it just looks like the HRRR is too far north and too slow with the incoming snow band through IN and OH.   

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23 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

man, I really hate to be that  weenie :bag:...  and I fully understand my doppler radar may be skewed by my weenie goggles....noting all of that, it just looks like the HRRR is too far north and too slow with the incoming snow band through IN and OH.   

This kind of winter will do that to yah

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