Interstate Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Never, this will get worse from here on out. People are already talking about thermals. By tomorrow, it'll be a nice, heavy rainstorm. Nope... The surface low will be in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Canadian sucks but at least it's showing precip this run instead of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It's becoming pretty clear to me that the ops have been struggling with what types of air masses we can even speculate about after the first system. We torch while a low forms in the Southern Plains about a week from now. Never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Nope... The surface low will be in Chicago Dryslotting our rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a solid hit. Damn Bus has taken a beating this year. You might have some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Bus has taken a beating this year. You might have some work to do. copyright epa? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 we finally did it! Pop the champagne! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 High and dry early next week (today is Sunday). Goofs is losing credibility fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, kurtstack said: we finally did it! Pop the champagne! If anything, the potential storm threat is within a period of a dropping AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: SLP closes off in SW va and give a nice tug on the mid levels towards a colder solution. It's kinda the best case scenario. Might go downhill from here. lol I gave a tug to something else reading your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: If anything, the potential storm threat is within a period of a dropping AO. Hopefully the raging PNA can follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Hopefully the raging PNA can follow suit. We lack the NAO , I guess because of that crazy Icelandic low , as mentioned by DT. and the Omega pattern in that region. Some crazy weather in Europe for sure because of that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Canadian sucks but at least it's showing precip this run instead of nothing. The improvements over the last 10-20 years in the gfs and ecmwf have made most of the other guidance in the medium range obsolete. The U.K. Is a decent tool but no one has access to good output or ensembles for it. But the ggem and others are so far behind it just adds noise. Better off looking at the gfs euro and most importantly digging into the ensembles from both to get an idea. More after that is less imo. Then once in short range we get to freak out about the nam every 6 hours. Shame back in the day it was fun watching all the runs come in. They were all bad enough then to think the crap models had a shot once in a while. Now it happens so infrequently it's not even worth the lottery ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I gave a tug to something else reading your post. Stay classy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Last night EPS had some big hits day 10-12. Gfs is more northern stream dominant and doesn't like that period. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The UKMET at 72 appears more amped than the 12Z GFS but it's always tough to tell not having upper levels yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Kissing jet streams and tugging SLPs... love is in the air, but can we get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET at 72 appears more amped than the 12Z GFS but it's always tough to tell not having upper levels yet Takes a low from Oklahoma to 300 miles off the Delmarva in 24 hours. Can't be too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 A setup like this is literally why I chose to move to Gaithersburg. Hoping my elevation helps me avoid being screwed by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 DC sounding @ hr90. Pretty shallow above freezing layer. A good bit below 925mb. Very close to an all snow sounding. Northerly winds are never bad when rooting for a colder trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Gotta trust climo wrt temps and how it can snow with warm surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The improvements over the last 10-20 years in the gfs and ecmwf have made most of the other guidance in the medium range obsolete. The U.K. Is a decent tool but no one has access to good output or ensembles for it. But the ggem and others are so far behind it just adds noise. Better off looking at the gfs euro and most importantly digging into the ensembles from both to get an idea. More after that is less imo. Then once in short range we get to freak out about the nam every 6 hours. Shame back in the day it was fun watching all the runs come in. They were all bad enough then to think the crap models had a shot once in a while. Now it happens so infrequently it's not even worth the lottery ticket. In fairness to the GGEM. It was the first model with the big noreaster idea a couple of weeks ago. It can sometimes still be useful. Especially in temp profiles I think. And I dont know if I should comment on the midweek thing since I was put in the ground for good earlier this week. But I am going to anyways. The vort pass being modeled is in a perfect position for us. Yeah. The surface temps are suspect. But I agree with the rest that the upper levels are good. We are going to need almost that EXACT track though. Or its game over IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: DC sounding @ hr90. Pretty shallow above freezing layer. A good bit below 925mb. Very close to an all snow sounding. Northerly winds are never bad when rooting for a colder trend. Let's not cherry-pick! (added 0z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: In fairness to the GGEM. It was the first model with the big noreaster idea a couple of weeks ago. It can sometimes still be useful. Especially in temp profiles I think. And I dont know if I should comment on the midweek thing since I was put in the ground for good earlier this week. But I am going to anyways. The vort pass being modeled is in a perfect position for us. Yeah. The surface temps are suspect. But I agree with the rest that the upper levels are good. We are going to need almost that EXACT track though. Or its game over IMO. I knew someone would bring up that storm. And your right it did do better in that instance. But the chance of such a track was within the clusters on the gefs and EPS so it's not like they totally missed it. And the ggem has been so flat out awful with so many other systems I think overall it will add confusion more often then not and isn't worth it for that once in a blue moon it's right. Don't get me wrong I'll look at it. But I don't weight it anymore then I would a single gefs ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Anybody gefs members yet? FWIW, I can't see how the gfs got that storm from such a meager h5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Comparing the last three GFS runs, it appears that the 0z Run overnight had the best result for us with the low coming across North Carolina. Trend has deteriorated since then for us to receive snow. But, we all know that we haven't come up with the final solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 GEFS looks decent. 8 get at least 2" to the metro, a few looking real good. A few close misses as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Comparing the last three GFS runs, it appears that the 0z Run overnight had the best result for us with the low coming across North Carolina. Trend has deteriorated since then for us to receive snow. But, we all know that we haven't come up with the final solution yet. I didn't even realize that! Interesting. I chose to share the 0z sounding because of the run's similarities to 12z programming. Is this still an applicable method? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: GEFS looks decent. 8 get at least 2" to the metro, a few looking real good. A few close misses as well. That's a flip a coin if there ever was one. Why did you run them out in time so far? What do they look like at 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6z gefs was actually better than 12z. But mostly noise in the big picture. Both runs are WAY better than any previous one. Considering 24 hours ago the GEFS support dwindled to near zero, there recent flip is fairly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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