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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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Pretty cold mid levels rushing in but surface obviously lags. Should be some pretty good lift somewhere with that kind of gradient. Timing is good in the wee hours. I'd rather have marginal temps then than at 1pm. 

Of course we're only in tease range so it's prob smarter to focus on actually having a storm vs temps and how much precip. Lol. 

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4 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Do we...want that?

You do.  I don't nor do any other NYC or people further north.  The later this gets going allowing the high to press down the more likely this is mainly a MA event.  The trend this winter though has been for that not to happen.  At the same time though the pattern is progressive in this period where this happens so I'm thinking the 06Z GFS scenario as I see it now is too far NW, at the same time the Op Euro may be too far SE. 

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The NAM is no lock at 84 at the surface. I will say the look at 84 is nice for the MA. The cold air presses between that 988 low and the high pressure, the column would like be A-OK DC North. My eyebrow is raised...

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As far as the cold arriving on time for our possible day 4/5 storm one thing we might want to keep an eye on is the lead low running into the lakes. We would probably want to see the track of that low start adjusting to the south and east which would pull the boundary, along with the cold, south and east with it. Another consideration is to see a little more separation between the lakes low and the followup low. Gives a little more time to allow the cold to bleed in as well as giving a little more room for our storm to amplify.

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Sterling is at least mentioning a threat for something interestingly.  How big could this get?  Nobody really knows in such a volatile pattern!  Slow the bandwagon please.

Shift in 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance for Wednesday night/Thursday with
both favoring a rapid cool down from a warm Wednesday and snow by
late Wednesday night. The upper trough axis shifts east across the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday. Surface low pressure development ahead this
trough occurs over NC late Wednesday night before pushing offshore.
Possible kissing jet streams overhead would enhance lift over decent
surface moisture.

Will need to monitor future runs for this midweek snow potential as
model variability has been great. Will note that the 00Z GFS/ECMWF
have good agreement with low level frontogenesis on the north side
of the low center. Given the warmth of the previous day, this would
likely be a snow on grassy surfaces if it indeed snows.
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Just now, BTRWx said:

Sterling is at least mentioning a threat for something interestingly.  How big could this get?  Nobody really knows in such a volatile pattern!  Slow the bandwagon please.


Shift in 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance for Wednesday night/Thursday with
both favoring a rapid cool down from a warm Wednesday and snow by
late Wednesday night. The upper trough axis shifts east across the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday. Surface low pressure development ahead this
trough occurs over NC late Wednesday night before pushing offshore.
Possible kissing jet streams overhead would enhance lift over decent
surface moisture.

Will need to monitor future runs for this midweek snow potential as
model variability has been great. Will note that the 00Z GFS/ECMWF
have good agreement with low level frontogenesis on the north side
of the low center. Given the warmth of the previous day, this would
likely be a snow on grassy surfaces if it indeed snows.

Here's rooting for the kissing jet streams!

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I'm still not ready to start the detailed analysis and eventual heartbreak on this yet. As many have accurately pointed out this threat has been there hidden within the noise of the guidance for a long time. But it's not a long lead tracking type event. Progressive wave along a pressing boundary can work and has worked but it's the kind of thing that often undergoes significant changes in guidance leading up.  

It's a very good sign things are trending better now but it could still get pulled out from under us. I'm not saying it's not a legit threat just proceed with caution. Two recent example of this type setup with a low to our north then a follow up wave would be march 5 2015 and early feb 2014. 2015 worked out and the other was a late fail after it trended better initially so...

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