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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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Really good consensus for Canada to get quite cold over the next 2 weeks and then dump it into the US. Mean anom panels are very impressive at long leads. As stated previously, the west gets it first but i seriously doubt we dont get our share with that kind of pattern taking hold. It's textbook cross polar flow. March 14-15 redux? Lol. 

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm was 3/9-3/10 1976. Very bad winter until that point. This area had only around 8" to that point. Similar to this year actually. The closest coop report to me from that storm was 7 miles north in Hanover pa with 12". Parkton reported 10.5". Uniontown 12.5". Loch raven dam 8.8". Bwi 7.8". iAd 6.4" and DCA 0.8". 

Thanks for digging through your records. Pretty much validates my memory of that storm and the winter overall.

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47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Really good consensus for Canada to get quite cold over the next 2 weeks and then dump it into the US. Mean anom panels are very impressive at long leads. As stated previously, the west gets it first but i seriously doubt we dont get our share with that kind of pattern taking hold. It's textbook cross polar flow. March 14-15 redux? Lol. 

Keeping hope alive.  Maybe I will just enjoy this warmth, exercise like I should as if summer is next week, and then maybe a surprise 

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52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Really good consensus for Canada to get quite cold over the next 2 weeks and then dump it into the US. Mean anom panels are very impressive at long leads. As stated previously, the west gets it first but i seriously doubt we dont get our share with that kind of pattern taking hold. It's textbook cross polar flow. March 14-15 redux? Lol. 

Yea I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another window of cold in march. The pattern is close. I'm a little shocked given how many things are lined up right that the eastern ridge still goes nuts. I'm just keeping one eye to see if signs show up that the cold dumps into the east at some point. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another window of cold in march. The pattern is close. I'm a little shocked given how many things are lined up right that the eastern ridge still goes nuts. I'm just keeping one eye to see if signs show up that the cold dumps into the east at some point. 

My guess is it carves its way. Similar to the series of storms on the ops. We're pretty much 2 weeks away from getting anything to line up right if it does at all. 

-10 in march isn't very cold but would support something should the opportunity arise. Storm track needs to shift east. Front end stuff in March faces some hostile climo. Antecedent cold on the way out is weak sauce. My total guess is the trough axis shifts eastward and we get another favorable period sometime late first week and second week of March. 

I'm still pretty disinterested in winter wx but if things come together at a range where we can do more than just guess I'll be back in the saddle as always. For now I'm just going to enjoy mild Feb weather. 

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Friday's CPC forecast for March 4 though 17th. "Dynamical model guidance for the Week 3-4 period is generally in good agreement among the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA solutions, depicting a trough over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge over the western CONUS and Alaska." Average to slightly above average precipitation is also in the forecast for the period. ... 

Unfortunately, the forecast for the week before that continues to worsen. With chances for above normal (3 category) temperatures now exceeding 70% according to the CPC. 

NAEFS suggests the first week of March will be wet with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. 

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I definitely get that......but it's Sure nice to see. Hope it continues 

Maybe I'm pretty resigned to the fail. I only want the pattern to improve if it's actually going to produce. The worst (and most likely) outcome is we get a favorable pattern and a threat but it misses and we simply get teased and let down one more time. 

The guidance is slowly trending south in the long range with the wave train of storms. Wouldn't take much more adjustment to put is onto the winning side of some of them. However keep one thing in mind. These boundary waves tend to trend north the last 72 hours and that trend tends to continue right to verification.  We just saw that. So don't get teased if 100 hours out some runs show a snowy result. We probably want the snow to be in southern Va or NC from range and start the slow north bleed north from there. 

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe I'm pretty resigned to the fail. I only want the pattern to improve if it's actually going to produce. The worst (and most likely) outcome is we get a favorable pattern and a threat but it misses and we simply get teased and let down one more time. 

The guidance is slowly trending south in the long range with the wave train of storms. Wouldn't take much more adjustment to put is onto the winning side of some of them. However keep one thing in mind. These boundary waves tend to trend north the last 72 hours and that trend tends to continue right to verification.  We just saw that. So don't get teased if 100 hours out some runs show a snowy result. We probably want the snow to be in southern Va or NC from range and start the slow north bleed north from there. 

It definitely has the feel of a gradient pattern setting up and pressing southward and not a amplified NA/conus pattern. You in particular could get something good out of it as well as the other northern tier members. GEFS looks better than the EPS but my hunch is the GEFS is onto something. At least it seems things start lining up *inside* of 2 weeks instead of extrapolating 15d mean plots. LoL

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So with those caveats from the beaten down side of my brain I will offer this from the more hopeful side. 

The pattern going into the second week of march is increasingly looking cold and a very active storm track.  On top of the pattern looming better is the added help that North America is about to get flooded with cold. Our last couple attempts at a better pattern were partially ruined by a lack of cold available on our side of the globe. Two of the best analogs to this year 1999 and 1984 did flip cold and snowy in march so there is some historical precedence for such a flip also. 1984 if anything underperformed in snow as there were two storms that were ok but so close to being better. 

Take all that however you want. Given the crap we have endured I'm not going to waste time telling anyone they shouldn't be skeptical or negative. And march snow is march snow.  I know some of you hate it. Gone by noon the next day all all that jazz. But for those holding out that last prayer for one snowfall there may still be hope. What do we have to lose lol. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So with those caveats from the beaten down side of my brain I will offer this from the more hopeful side. 

The pattern going into the second week of march is increasingly looking cold and a very active storm track.  On top of the pattern looming better is the added help that North America is about to get flooded with cold. Our last couple attempts at a better pattern were partially ruined by a lack of cold available on our side of the globe. Two of the best analogs to this year 1999 and 1984 did flip cold and snowy in march so there is some historical precedence for such a flip also. 1984 if anything underperformed in snow as there were two storms that were ok but so close to being better. 

Take all that however you want. Given the crap we have endured I'm not going to waste time telling anyone they shouldn't be skeptical or negative. And march snow is march snow.  I know some of you hate it. Gone by noon the next day all all that jazz. But for those holding out that last prayer for one snowfall there may still be hope. What do we have to lose lol. 

I'll believe it when I see it. Since I already "jumped", I probably won't say too much until a storm actually happens. If something good does happen, I'll be glad to admit being wrong. If that 8"+ storm that plasters everything actually happens, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It definitely has the feel of a gradient pattern setting up and pressing southward and not a amplified NA/conus pattern. You in particular could get something good out of it as well as the other northern tier members. GEFS looks better than the EPS but my hunch is the GEFS is onto something. At least it seems things start lining up *inside* of 2 weeks instead of extrapolating 15d mean plots. LoL

You caught me in between my bad cop good cop routine.  I posted my more optimistic thoughts right after. It does look like a gradient type pattern but it also doesn't take much to amp up a system in march. Vorts need very little space. That could work for or against us depending on the boundary.  Plus a gradient pattern can work in march even. 2014 & 2015 proved that. 1999 was a gradient type pattern too. The first storm crushed up here. The second right through DC and the third just nw of the metros. But all 3 were west to east type systems. It's still too far out to start analysis like that. I like the way things are evolving but we're about to hit the wall. We're really running out of time now. It might be a race to see if this can evolve where it looks like it's going in time.  But this look is pretty darn good. 

IMG_0659.PNGIMG_0658.PNG

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8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Since I already "jumped", I probably won't say too much until a storm actually happens. If something good does happen, I'll be glad to admit being wrong. If that 8"+ storm that plasters everything actually happens, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

No one is telling you to believe it or even that it's likely to snow. I think my only point was that maybe there is still some hope. That's all. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You caught me in between my bad cop good cop routine.  I posted my more optimistic thoughts right after. It does look like a gradient type pattern but it also doesn't take much to amp up a system in march. Vorts need very little space. That could work for or against us depending on the boundary.  Plus a gradient pattern can work in march even. 2014 & 2015 proved that. 1999 was a gradient type pattern too. The first storm crushed up here. The second right through DC and the third just nw of the metros. But all 3 were west to east type systems. It's still too far out to start analysis like that. I like the way things are evolving but we're about to hit the wall. We're really running out of time now. It might be a race to see if this can evolve where it looks like it's going in time.  But this look is pretty darn good. 

IMG_0659.PNGIMG_0658.PNG

My biggest question- how many more runs until the NA blocky look disappears lol.

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one is telling you to believe it or even that it's likely to snow. I think my only point was that maybe there is still some hope. That's all. 

You're right... I think I sounded more negative than I intended. I still hope we get a nice surprise.

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Man. I can tell how people are rolling today on Not My President's Day. We have a storm on the horizon. Maybe rain, maybe snow, but it's coming...

Read into all or none of that. I'll keep eating my wood fired pizza and drinking my delicious Richmond brewed (today only) beer. Carry on team. Bring home the win!

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On 2/19/2017 at 2:43 AM, BTRWx said:

After watching JB's weekend summary I decided to do some digging to see how rare our pattern this winter has been.  I came across just one single analog when monthly soi values trended similarly from moderately + to slightly negative from early to mid autumn then slightly positive for early winter.  Here is what I came up with!

From macro to meso each map for November through January...

10mb strat

NOTES: Both show lower heights over the Pacific Northwest with north pole stratospheric warming...edge stuff is likely noise

2016-2017

NDJ 2017 10mb.gif

and 1931-1932! (DCA has 4" snowfall in March)

NDJ 1932 10mb v2c.gif

 

250 mb Jet Stream

Correlations: warm pool south of the Aleutians, low heights over the far pacific northwest, above normal heights over eastern U.S. and eastern Europe

NOTES: anomaly over Greenland

2016-2017

NDJ 2017 250mb.gif

1931-1032

NDJ 1932 250mb.gif

 

500mb center of the action!

NOTES: almost identical correlations and anomalies as 250mb

2016-2017

NDJ 2017 500mb.gif

1931-1932

NDJ 1932 500mb v2c.gif

 

1000mb (imby aloft)

NOTES nearly identical correlations again, but an anomaly over Siberia China...

2016-2017

NDJ 2017 1000mb.gif

1931-1932

NDJ 1932 1000mb v2c.gif

 

Precipitatable Water

NOTES: Slightly more moisture over the eastern U.S. during 1931-1932

2016-2017

NDJ 2017precipwater.gif

1931-1932

NDJ 1932 precipwater v2c.gif

CONUS Temps

NOTES: overall torch with anomalies of lower heights over the western U.S., higher heights imby (wow!) and stronger overall gradients in 1931-1932 interestingly

2016-2017

NDJ 2017 temps.gif

1931-1932

NDJ 1932 temps v2c.gif
 

Here are some additional notes about the timing of that March's snow.  From the following images, the cold appears to have penetrated into the eastern U.S. during the two week period between March 6 to March 14 in 1932.  Late March returned to above normal temperatures unfortunately, but that one snow event around March 7, 1932 has an interesting look...

March 4, 1932 (still warm)

Mar 4_1932 conus temps v2c.jpg

 

March 5, 1932 (more seasonal)

Mar 5_1932 conus temps v2c.jpg

 

March 6, 1932 (transitions phase)

Mar 6_1932 conus temps v2c.jpg

 

March 7, 1932 (winter returns)

Mar 7_1932 conus temps v2c.jpg

 

March 8, 1932 (excellent negative anomalies)

Mar 8_1932 conus temps v2c.jpg

 

Mid - late March 1932 (fun while it lasted)

Mar 15 to 31_1932 conus temps v2c.jpg

 

and my future thesis! (strong low height anomalies over east coast around March 7, 1932!)

Mar 6 to 7_1932 conus 1000mb v2c.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Rolling the EPS forward from day 15 on the new weeklies, looks like we have maybe a week where the pattern is not completely hostile for snow chances. Some pretty decent cold air is lurking just to the NW, and the eastern ridge weakens for a time. Beyond that, fogedaboudetttt.

The waffling of the Euro weeklies this winter has been comical.  The Gefs have been far too optimistic regarding cold as well. The Canadian suite of the Cansips and Geps have remained fairly consistently warm and the Geps have not been giving false signals/hope of troughing in the east. Canadians win this winter hands down in my book....ok, everything other than the ggem and rgem. Lol

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Certainly an exciting week first week of March coming up for residents of Madison  ... or Ottawa .. or .... 

Looks like one storm after another perhaps one will track far enough south to give us mixed precipitation. 

 

A couple of poster's have noted that storms need less spacing in the spring than they do in the winter - something about shorter wave lengths etc. Could someone explain 

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

Certainly an exciting week first week of March coming up for residents of Madison  ... or Ottawa .. or .... 

Looks like one storm after another perhaps one will track far enough south to give us mixed precipitation. 

 

A couple of poster's have noted that storms need less spacing in the spring than they do in the winter - something about shorter wave lengths etc. Could someone explain 

Sorry about the banter I had to quickly delete.  This is no place for what I said.  It's an interesting thought and I also remember reading about that!   

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