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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's amazing that given this epo/AO/nao on the geps and gefs that there is still a raging ridge in the east.  This is something I've noticed numerous times this year and always assumed "give me that general pattern and it will work out" but I'm not saying that anymore.  There is obviously something driving the pattern that wants a ridge in the east.  That said the overall pattern is good enough to hold out hope of something popping up in march.  

IMG_0646.PNGIMG_0647.PNG

 

Maybe it's just that the ridge on the West Coast is just too far west and has been all winter.  It's mind-boggling just the persistence of that look and I have a little faith that it will turn around at any point.  

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38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's amazing that given this epo/AO/nao on the geps and gefs that there is still a raging ridge in the east.  This is something I've noticed numerous times this year and always assumed "give me that general pattern and it will work out" but I'm not saying that anymore.  There is obviously something driving the pattern that wants a ridge in the east.  That said the overall pattern is good enough to hold out hope of something popping up in march.  

IMG_0646.PNGIMG_0647.PNG

 

Remember in the beginning of the winter when I remarked a couple of times that it was somewhat rare to see a -NAO in conjunction with a southeast ridge? Well I am beginning to believe it is not as rare as I first thought. :) 

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32 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe it's just that the ridge on the West Coast is just too far west and has been all winter.  It's mind-boggling just the persistence of that look and I have a little faith that it will turn around at any point.  

I really think its that simple. The ePac has been off just enough, especially the location of ridging near AK. It has generally been too far west or SW, and we get a trough stuck out west, and a ridge along the east coast or in the WA..

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Remember in the beginning of the winter when I remarked a couple of times that it was somewhat rare to see a -NAO in conjunction with a southeast ridge? Well I am beginning to believe it is not as rare as I first thought. :) 

How many times have we seen a legit -NAO actually verify as modeled though? That usually fails, other than some transient ridging over GL. 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

How many times have we seen a legit -NAO actually verify as modeled though? That usually fails, other than some transient ridging over GL. 

That's a good question. I could be wrong but I do think though that we have seen a -NAO in conjunction with a southeast ridge verify a couple/three times this year though they were transient in nature.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

How many times have we seen a legit -NAO actually verify as modeled though? That usually fails, other than some transient ridging over GL. 

Yes but the models are showing even with it we have no luck. That's just a statement of how bad it is. And a few times we did get a -nao and torched right through it. 

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18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The optimist in me feels like we will still have one more window of opportunity and then the realist in me says that opportunity will fail like the rest

We score with something or we don't. I really don't care anymore. I am at the stage where all I want is to get my $25 worth of tracking that I spent for weatherbell. :)

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Hopefully this just proves to be that once in 20 year pattern that we will fear but no revisit anytime soon.  It really challenged a lot of signals  we thought we knew to be good for us.  It seemed ok for New England though.  They can get snow in almost any pattern it seems.  

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43 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe it's just that the ridge on the West Coast is just too far west and has been all winter.  It's mind-boggling just the persistence of that look and I have a little faith that it will turn around at any point.  

 

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I really think its that simple. The ePac has been off just enough, especially the location of ridging near AK. It has generally been too far west or SW, and we get a trough stuck out west, and a ridge along the east coast or in the WA..

Your both right in that on that specific look if the pna was better it would force the trough into the east. But I guess my point is this...right there the nao, ao, epo, and wpo are all lined up good. That should be enough to more then compensate for the pna. There we're times the pna was good and we said the nao was the problem. How often are we going to get 5/5 telleconections lined up right?   If we needed that to snow our average would be about 5". To me the bigger issue is that the underlying pattern driver wants to put a ridge here unless things line up so overwhelmingly the other way that for a brief transient period cold wins. My guess is a combo of the qbo and the pacific and Atlantic sst 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but the models are showing even with it we have no luck. That's just a statement of how bad it is. And a few times we did get a -nao and torched right through it. 

I think its mostly been of the bootleg variety. The progression of the long wave pattern is bound to land transient ridging in the NAO domain at some point. Normally for it to work for us there has to be some persistence though...blocking!

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3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

What we better worry about is if that western-trough has entered a multi-year persistence.  How many consecutive years has ridging dominated out there (before this year)?  It's been a multi-year, historic drought that has just been busted.  They might be on a multi-year heater, and so might we - literally.

Yep...dominate +PNA pattern since 1980...due to flip sometime.  Bad PAC with a bad Atlantic won't be good.  

season.JFM.pna.gif

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On 2/16/2017 at 7:15 AM, PennQuakerGirl said:

I've been pushing the elements for a July snowstorm for years....though I suppose that's the sort of thinking that can get you beat up pretty much everywhere but here ;)

Ha.  July snowstorm might be pushing it.  I'm usually ready to move on from snow by March. What sucks about these types of Winters is that craving isn't satisfied so it kinda takes the fun away from the seasons.  It is what it is.  3 straight quality Winters.  this was the dud we were due for.

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Your both right in that on that specific look if the pna was better it would force the trough into the east. But I guess my point is this...right there the nao, ao, epo, and wpo are all lined up good. That should be enough to more then compensate for the pna. There we're times the pna was good and we said the nao was the problem. How often are we going to get 5/5 telleconections lined up right?   If we needed that to snow our average would be about 5". To me the bigger issue is that the underlying pattern driver wants to put a ridge here unless things line up so overwhelmingly the other way that for a brief transient period cold wins. My guess is a combo of the qbo and the pacific and Atlantic sst 

I know you and everyone else is sick of hearing it, but this is where the lack of a trough in the means over Japan is killing us. If it was present,  we'd have our trough down stream in the means in response on the east coast. 

Why have we failed all year with getting the trough over Japan and having to fight the ridge on the east? My short answer is the Nina (which is now official on the cpc site). But I'm too disinterested at this point in the season to bother arguing about it anymore.  Lol

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35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know you and everyone else is sick of hearing it, but this is where the lack of a trough in the means over Japan is killing us. If it was present,  we'd have our trough down stream in the means in response on the east coast. 

Why have we failed all year with getting the trough over Japan and having to fight the ridge on the east? My short answer is the Nina (which is now official on the cpc site). But I'm too disinterested at this point in the season to bother arguing about it anymore.  Lol

We're never going to agree but I just can't put it all in the nina. I'll have to look into the official classification because a week ago cpc had a statement that the winter never made it to nina status. And the numbers seemed to back that up.  But regardless a -.7 or whatever it peaked at is pathetic. We have had way stronger ninas produce better. You realize our enso was pretty identical to 1996 this year. That alone says there are more pieces to this puzzle. I agree that the enso state was a negative factor but alone it's not the driving force here. I actually think a combo of the warmer waters off South America and off the Atlantic coast are a bigger problem. All together there are too many negatives to overcome when they are all added up. 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well, we just followed one with another one.

Last year was a snowless winter outside of one fluke.

The blizzard last year wasn't a fluke. We were in a very favorable setup at the time with excellent north Atlantic blocking. A good storm that comes in spite of a terrible pattern would be a fluke.

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38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Whatever.  It was the one and only snow event in two years.

Remember, there is no "we" in this sub-forum. Imby I recorded (only) 16" from the big storm last year. I also recorded 9" from 2-3 other events. This winter I have had a 6" event and  1.6" from 2 other minor events. Now, where I think you and I do agree, is that last winter and this winter qualify as duds overall. Winter should feature cold. I want cold, and I want "some" snow that actually sticks around for a while. Last winter was a torch early, and was warm overall, and this winter has been well above normal in addition to practically snowless for many.

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Remember, there is no "we" in this sub-forum. Imby I recorded (only) 16" from the big storm last year. I also recorded 9" from 2-3 other events. This winter I have had a 6" event and  1.6" from 2 other minor events. Now, where I think you and I do agree, is that last winter and this winter qualify as duds overall. Winter should feature cold. I want cold, and I want "some" snow that actually sticks around for a while. Last winter was a torch early, and was warm overall, and this winter has been well above normal in addition to practically snowless for many.

Sure thing.  I don't really have anything out here that would qualify as a snow event.  You guys way east of here have had an event or two but all of us have had very little.

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

I kind of new tonight runs would be ****, but I stuck my face in them anyway   Lets just say it was a bad idea.  SE ridge Galore in the long range.

  Euro has a lakes cutter that goes straight up Hudsons bay, and 850 temp anomalies + on every panel...

welcome to rain and spring.

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