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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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11 hours ago, cae said:

A definite shift west on the 00z 3km NAM and 00z GFS. 

WKSGb3K.gif

The GFS has been trending faster with the southern low and towards a sharper trough.  I'm not sure how it all plays out, but we might see some cold rain or even a few flakes from this yet.  At least it's something to track.

It's basically a gigantic snowhole!! It's just not our year for snow...I mean, that's insane, smh That right there tells you that it's just not meant to be this year...wow

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even if the models bust and we get precip on the 15-16th, it's not going to amount to anything. There is is literally no moisture or dynamics to work with. A rain or snow shower would is top end potential and has been that way for many days now. 

Right..thermals arent supportive anyway because of that northern low.

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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even if the models bust and we get precip on the 15-16th, it's not going to amount to anything. There is is literally no moisture or dynamics to work with. A rain or snow shower would is top end potential and has been that way for many days now. 

Exactly.  This passed the who cares barrier a while back.

 

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42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gotta get one more month of subscriptions. Can't say it's over and risk losing money. 

friend linked me a post and i went to see "WTH" and he mostly was whining about how he nailed the pattern but the planet is just too warm and so the surface didnt respond and other such nonsense.  Amazing how someone so against the argument of human caused global warming has no problem blaming global warming for his busted forecast lol. 

I will say this though, he isnt wrong about the whole northern hemisphere torching thing.  I've commented a couple times over the past 2 years that its disturbing that even with a pretty good "workable" h5 pattern the surface response with cold is pathetic because there just isnt much cold anywhere.  I am not sure what to say about that.  Obviously coming off a super nino some of that is expected, but before we even recover from that it looks like were headed right back into another nino.  In the micro sense that nino could help us as if we get tropical forcing in the right place it could offset the overall warming for our location specifically, plus no one in here is going to care if we end the winter +1.5 temps but with several big snowstorms and 40"+ region wide.  But in the longer term macro sense what that could imply for our chances year to year to sustain cold and snow is troublesome if we really are entering a new normal anything like what we have seen the last 2 years.  It's hard enough to get cold here without 75% of the northern hemisphere being above average at any given time.  That just stacks the odds even more against us.  I am still thinking this is mostly just a short term trend and not a new long term normal but lets hope that is true. 

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even if the models bust and we get precip on the 15-16th, it's not going to amount to anything. There is is literally no moisture or dynamics to work with. A rain or snow shower would is top end potential and has been that way for many days now. 

LOL I stopped even paying attention to this days ago

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

friend linked me a post and i went to see "WTH" and he mostly was whining about how he nailed the pattern but the planet is just too warm and so the surface didnt respond and other such nonsense.  Amazing how someone so against the argument of human caused global warming has no problem blaming global warming for his busted forecast lol. 

I will say this though, he isnt wrong about the whole northern hemisphere torching thing.  I've commented a couple times over the past 2 years that its disturbing that even with a pretty good "workable" h5 pattern the surface response with cold is pathetic because there just isnt much cold anywhere.  I am not sure what to say about that.  Obviously coming off a super nino some of that is expected, but before we even recover from that it looks like were headed right back into another nino.  In the micro sense that nino could help us as if we get tropical forcing in the right place it could offset the overall warming for our location specifically, plus no one in here is going to care if we end the winter +1.5 temps but with several big snowstorms and 40"+ region wide.  But in the longer term macro sense what that could imply for our chances year to year to sustain cold and snow is troublesome if we really are entering a new normal anything like what we have seen the last 2 years.  It's hard enough to get cold here without 75% of the northern hemisphere being above average at any given time.  That just stacks the odds even more against us.  I am still thinking this is mostly just a short term trend and not a new long term normal but lets hope that is true. 

Obviously a lot of truth in that, but we also have to look at the fact that we were plenty cold plenty of times only to watch as precip was scarce, developed just off shore, was pushed south of us, etc.

Last week is a prime example.  A 75 mile shift in the players and we are looking at a storm that by this years standards would have been a good storm region wide.

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

friend linked me a post and i went to see "WTH" and he mostly was whining about how he nailed the pattern but the planet is just too warm and so the surface didnt respond and other such nonsense.  Amazing how someone so against the argument of human caused global warming has no problem blaming global warming for his busted forecast lol. 

 

Hahahaha.  Perfect.

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Lol at how unstable and awful the euro has become past day 5 lately. No model is going to be very consistent with Amy details at that range but for a month it's been shifting the entire longwave pattern run to run. Last few runs went from a bomb off New England to a weak system off Florida and a blowtorch to Joe a pretty cold look day 8-10. Just crazy swings run to run.

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45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I realize that nothing is really being tracked but NAM was a step towards it precipitating here. Very different from GFS earlier, NAM manages to give Boston another storm while GFS kicks it out to sea. 

Seems to me that there are still some kinks to be worker out. We need Ravens84 to amp it up. 

 

NAM moved the light rain a bit north. Could be a slippery commute tomorrow. And NAM's demented 32k cousin moved it even further north.

nam_mslp_pcpn_us_8.png

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43 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I realize that nothing is really being tracked but NAM was a step towards it precipitating here. Very different from GFS earlier, NAM manages to give Boston another storm while GFS kicks it out to sea. 

Seems to me that there are still some kinks to be worker out. We need Ravens84 to amp it up.

 

The northern stream had the southern stream checkmated last week.  The only way we can get decent with a 510DM over the mass like is if the southern stream bombs to a 930mb witha a 492dm  closed H5. Otherwise it's getting shredded into snizzle. You'd have to move the northern stream at least 500 miles to change  things.  

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EPS has a faint signal for a storm day 13-15. Snow mean is about 1-1.5" during that period. It's very cold on the mean. And 10 members spin up a mid Atlantic snowstorm and hit our area. A few big storms. Oddly no close misses all the members that have a storm bullseye the DC area. Those are obviously the members that failed geography.

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Such warmth in the LR on GFS.  I wonder if we will ever see a winter like this again.  This has to be a surprise to even those who felt that this would be a warm winter.  I almost think March will be cold because how can such a sustained warm pattern last for so long.

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2 hours ago, paulythegun said:

NAM moved the light rain a bit north. Could be a slippery commute tomorrow. And NAM's demented 32k cousin moved it even further north.

 

The NAM 3k, which I'm beginning to suspect is the most reasonable member of the NAM family, went the other way. 

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10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

18z Gefs. I refuse to get drawn back into this. Pretty good look in the lr.... 

Mother Nature is trolling us now!!!  Watch us finally get that look in march and it leads to an epic 33 degree rainstorm that gives New England another 30"  

IMG_0639.PNGlol i guess it's a start.  Last post of the night, happy Valentine's Day!IMG_0638.PNG

 

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mother Nature is trolling us now!!!  Watch us finally get that look in march and it leads to an epic 33 degree rainstorm that gives New England another 30"  

 i guess it's a start.  Last post of the night, happy Valentine's Day!

 

Meh...I'm pretty much numb to whatever failure comes our way.  Fully prepared!  Just one successful tracking episode that ends in an 8 - 12" thump and then I'll be more than happy to dust off the fishing yak.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say we aren't getting an 8-12" event.

I hope you guys can troll the hell out of this post.

LMAO  thats funny right there.  You'd love for us to troll this post...while getting 8-12".  Heck I know I would.  LR models have been nothing short of whacked this year.  

Nut

 

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