Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 At least we get some pity snow showers with trough instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: At least we get some pity snow showers with trough instability. is everyone dismissing the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: It's not the track that is killing us though. We want to see the 500's like this or maybe even a little deeper. The heights in front ticked higher. That's the part of the 500's that we don't want to see. I suppose if the vort can dig further then that would offset things but no guarantee even if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Ji said: is everyone dismissing the euro? Not for another couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Ji said: is everyone dismissing the euro? Yes, it's only right this year when it's Dr. No. When it's Dr. Yes it caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Buckle up! 1 minute ago, Ji said: is everyone dismissing the euro? I'm with Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Buckle up long rangers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 One model alone is not a concern. I don't care which model it is. If the euro comes in with a decent solution, no worries. When it starts showing rain like the gfs, start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That and the departing low is just a little faster this run. Bad combo. Euro will save us. Or NYC. One or the other. Yeah, the timing on that thing is very key to the gfs forecast. Slower and deeper with it once it's east of us would mean the cold being driven further south. This is a razor thin setup for us. Well, unless we can get that low to start out 150 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The heights in front ticked higher. That's the part of the 500's that we don't want to see. I suppose if the vort can dig further then that would offset things but no guarantee even if it does. Pretty much what I am looking for is a deeper pass with the vort max. Think that would solve many of the problems we are now facing for the DC/Balt crew in regards to temps by addressing low track, timing and rates to overcome the surface with a stronger low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: One model alone is not a concern. I don't care which model it is. If the euro comes in with a decent solution, no worries. When it starts showing rain like the gfs, start worrying. Lets see what the CMC does. I mean, it has nothing as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: One model alone is not a concern. I don't care which model it is. If the euro comes in with a decent solution, no worries. When it starts showing rain like the gfs, start worrying. Honestly, I'd rather have the Euro in my camp than the GFS as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Lets see what the CMC does. I mean, it has nothing as of now. Just now, stormtracker said: Honestly, I'd rather have the Euro in my camp than the GFS as of late I honestly think the key is numbers. One model has no real cred IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Buckle up! That's not a "buckle up" scenario imo. pna moving to neutral and epo about the same. The one positive would be the nao domain being negative and I guess the ao might still be in negative territory in the next 10 day window. But by no means is this a "buckle up" period yet. Maybe it will happen, but what you showed is not convincing in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Honestly, I'd rather have the Euro in my camp than the GFS as of late I have not been watching closely. Does the Euro have any other model in it corner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: That's not a "buckle up" scenario imo. pna moving to neutral and epo about the same. The one positive would be the nao domain being negative and I guess the ao might still be in negative territory in the next 10 day window. But by no means is this a "buckle up" period yet. Maybe it will happen, but what you showed is not convincing in the slightest. I tend to ignore numerical indices. They can be misleading depending on the hemispheric LW pattern. The corresponding pattern to those indices don't look good but are moving in the right direction for later on it seems. The only thing we're fighting late in the GEFS panels is the trough off the west coast moving inland and ridging in the east in front of the progression. I would guess (just like what PSU is describing) that a trough sets up in the east late month with fairly decent high latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: That's not a "buckle up" scenario imo. pna moving to neutral and epo about the same. The one positive would be the nao domain being negative and I guess the ao might still be in negative territory in the next 10 day window. But by no means is this a "buckle up" period yet. Maybe it will happen, but what you showed is not convincing in the slightest. Give it a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: That's not a "buckle up" scenario imo. pna moving to neutral and epo about the same. The one positive would be the nao domain being negative and I guess the ao might still be in negative territory in the next 10 day window. But by no means is this a "buckle up" period yet. Maybe it will happen, but what you showed is not convincing in the slightest. Uhh...ok. I'll take that look in a heartbeat compared to what weve been dealing with. Translated is a nice ridge out west w/ a trough in the east with less potential for storms to cut. Im in.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: Where the f did that comment from me? come from... Whoops it was late and I wrote in your box sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Buckle up long rangers! This 4-panel graphic is the worst. It often is at complete odds with what the CPC graphs show for the same time frame. It's only usefulness is the fact that it shows the EPO outlook, which CPC does not. Even then, it often fluctuates all over the place from day-to-day. Little to (at times) no consistency whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Chase said: Whoops it was late and I wrote in your box sorry I just don't see how I was quoted as saying something I didn't. Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, snowsux said: This 4-panel graphic is the worst. It often is at complete odds with what the CPC graphs show for the same time frame. It's only usefulness is the fact that it shows the EPO outlook, which CPC does not. Even then, it often fluctuates all over the place from day-to-day. Little to (at times) no consistency whatsoever. It's good for verification purposes imo. ESRL seems to be more involved with the researchers fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Last Monday there was a huge hope in the next few weeks. By Friday it was all depression. Now it is Monday and all hope is back. I am trying hard to be pessimistic... At least the GFS poured water on the little flame of hope I had for Wednesday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 More than it's had up to this point but still kind of crazy given we are this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowsux said: This 4-panel graphic is the worst. It often is at complete odds with what the CPC graphs show for the same time frame. It's only usefulness is the fact that it shows the EPO outlook, which CPC does not. Even then, it often fluctuates all over the place from day-to-day. Little to (at times) no consistency whatsoever. Here's the rest of it. More work is certainly needed, but we're looking good compared to last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Anyone else glad the CMC is slow to catch on? Still way south but a bit more development from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The Canadian still says "what storm" for the most part. The Euro is out to lunch on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Here's the rest of it. More work is certainly needed, but we're looking good compared to last week! A -AO doesn't guarantee a cold eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowsux said: A -AO doesn't guarantee a cold eastern US. THIS IS NOT A CURRENT SNAPSHOT, but for comparison... Current run below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I tend to ignore numerical indices. They can be misleading depending on the hemispheric LW pattern. The corresponding pattern to those indices don't look good but are moving in the right direction for later on it seems. The only thing we're fighting late in the GEFS panels is the trough off the west coast moving inland and ridging in the east in front of the progression. I would guess (just like what PSU is describing) that a trough sets up in the east late month with fairly decent high latitudes. 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Uhh...ok. I'll take that look in a heartbeat compared to what weve been dealing with. Translated is a nice ridge out west w/ a trough in the east with less potential for storms to cut. Im in.... Nut Bob- your graphic (from what I see) shows some promise nao space albeit a little concerning there are no negative anomalies in all of Canada. Doesn't that bother you? Nut- I see your point... And yes the "proposed" look is a better chance setup. I was simply saying that it doesn't look like buckle up to me... I've seen teleconnections that have lined up (ala 2009-10). Just saying I believe that there may be a slightly better chance we get something, but given persistence, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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