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Feb 7th Mixed Bag North of the Pike


HoarfrostHubb

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Model consensus is getting a little closer to a solution that offers a chance of a net gain

A couple of inches of snow and sleet followed by possible icing then rain.   How far does the tucky tuck get?    Probably a forgettable event for most but hopefully it can usher in a follow up that is better.

As of now, NWS forecasting up to 4" of snow and sleet in the higher terrain of northern Massachusetts

 

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Ironically, the euro is now the least snowiest of any model after being the snowiest a couple days ago. But all guidance now has major CAD for most of the storm so I think the period of time where temps are significantly above freezing is becoming pretty limited over the interior and esp N of pike. GFS is now a pretty good hit of snow before it flips to icing. Eastern areas look like they are going to see a cold tuck too in this one. 

There is still enough time left in this one to see some more changes that could make this a pretty good winter storm...or it could tick back the other way and just be a few hours of winter before sipping pina coladas in the warm sector for 10 hours...but the latter scenario seems to be fading on recent guidance, and Synoptically this would be the way to think. The deep layer dynamic support for a wound up primary has weakened considerably. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ironically, the euro is now the least snowiest of any model after being the snowiest a couple days ago. But all guidance now has major CAD for most of the storm so I think the period of time where temps are significantly above freezing is becoming pretty limited over the interior and esp N of pike. GFS is now a pretty good hit of snow before it flips to icing. Eastern areas look like they are going to see a cold tuck too in this one. 

There is still enough time left in this one to see some more changes that could make this a pretty good winter storm...or it could tick back the other way and just be a few hours of winter before sipping pina coladas in the warm sector for 10 hours...but the latter scenario seems to be fading on recent guidance, and Synoptically this would be the way to think. The deep layer dynamic support for a wound up primary has weakened considerably. 

Is this for the typical pike on north or theres a chance for a more wintery deal into CT?

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Is it safe to say that there will be no ice in Boston?

Not at all. They might get a cold tuck. They won't get as much ice as further west but they could easily see a 38F rain turn to 29F ZR in the cold tuck and everything freezes solid for a few hours. Def gonna have to watch it. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not at all. They might get a cold tuck. They won't get as much ice as further west but they could easily see a 38F rain turn to 29F ZR in the cold tuck and everything freezes solid for a few hours. Def gonna have to watch it. 

Thanks--I was thinking the cold tuck would have been off-set by the harbor.  I'll be staying in town Tuesday night so I'll miss anything of note that comes to the Pit.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm not taking the GFS idea for anything. That's like swallowing the barrel of a 45. Not setting myself up for that disappointment only to have it be rain and 53 on Wed

The euro looked icy there too. We probably will torch for a time no matter the solution with near and post fropa temp spike. It's inevitable unless you are deep interior.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm not taking the GFS idea for anything. That's like swallowing the barrel of a 45. Not setting myself up for that disappointment only to have it be rain and 53 on Wed

Have you looked at any model? Nammy gives you some frozen too. You may push 50F on Wed regardless after the fropa...especially with some sun.

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