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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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My biggest takeaway:

Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and allowing only for cases that showed both one-month and three-month drops in the MEI, eliminates all but six cases: 1960, 1985, 1995, 1996, 1998, and 2008. None of these cases are included in the comparison figure, perhaps illustrating how unusual the current situation is.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm peeking onto the German portion of their site now. I'm guessing some maps are left off the US version?

They actually look pretty similar...so idk. Maybe it's available via subscription. I guess if it's out there Steve-O will find it.

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12 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

Not sure I buy Albany getting 175 percent of normal snow. That would be a blockbuster year for all of NNE. Very doubtful. 

 

11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wouldn't be surprised 

 

I saw the 175% up in NNE and just sort of shrugged.  I get that it’s a blanket number, but we’ve talked about it before on the forum – with the large annual snowfall numbers and tighter variance up here, deviations that large are just not that practical.  At 175% of average annual snowfall we’d be pushing 300” here in the valley, and the resorts would be nearing 600”.  It’s certainly not “impossible” (Jay Peak recorded 581” in 2000-2001, presumably using their standard measuring methods), but using my data set it would be around 3 S.D. above the mean, which should represent less than 1% of seasons.  It would no doubt be fun to experience 175% of average snowfall around here, that would simply obliterate 2007-2008 with respect to the top spot, but we’d basically have to go bell to bell sort of like 2000-2001.

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4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

I saw the 175% up in NNE and just sort of shrugged.  I get that it’s a blanket number, but we’ve talked about it before on the forum – with the large annual snowfall numbers and tighter variance up here, deviations that large are just not that practical.  At 175% of average annual snowfall we’d be pushing 300” here in the valley, and the resorts would be nearing 600”.  It’s certainly not “impossible” (Jay Peak recorded 581” in 2000-2001, presumably using their standard measuring methods), but using my data set it would be around 3 S.D. above the mean, which should represent less than 1% of seasons.  It would no doubt be fun to experience 175% of average snowfall around here, that would simply obliterate 2007-2008 with respect to the top spot, but we’d basically have to go bell to bell sort of like 2000-2001.

I have little doubt being a N.Y. metro based forecast they spent little time on analyzing VT elevations but maybe not, it has happened before so it's not historical. 

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