Welcome to American Weather
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
eyewall

Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

734 posts in this topic

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

She's here. Atmospherically, she has been here as well.

There's been some huge drops recently in Nina 1+2 and Nina 3...those are the most volatile anyway, so we don't want to overreact, but those subsurface plots tell me we're not seeing a significant reversal in the overall trends over the next few weeks.

 

We'll prob see 3.4 drop some more by the end of the month once some of those warm pockets get washed out. It's already in the -0.6 to -0.7C range.

 

 

SSTA.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing we've also seen finally is a lot of cooling off Baja...SW of there we see much larger cold pool now....whereas the past 3 years before that it had been an absolute furnace there. It now is starting to transition back to the look we had more similar to the 2007-2012 Nina -PDO years. But we're not there yet...the N PAC though is cooling quite a bit too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing we've also seen finally is a lot of cooling off Baja...SW of there we see much larger cold pool now....whereas the past 3 years before that it had been an absolute furnace there. It now is starting to transition back to the look we had more similar to the 2007-2012 Nina -PDO years. But we're not there yet...the N PAC though is cooling quite a bit too.

Sounds more dumbfounding by the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sounds more dumbfounding by the day.

Scooter ripping heavy aggregates at 31F while Kevin is getting scalped at 19F?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, uncle W said:

Newton NJ got nearly 19" in 72-73 with an 11" storm at the end of January...Port Jervis got 25" that winter...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html

Interesting - that's more than we got in BGR (7.6") from that event, even though it was by far the best storm I saw in that half-winter following the move.  We did get 9" of paste over 4 days in late Feb, but with no-stick S- during the daylight, depth never exceeded 4" during the event.  After which came 4 clear cold days and poof!  No more winter.  Then 73-74 threatened BGR's low-snow record until the 8.6" of powder (at upper 20s) on April 9-10.  We lived in the state nearly 3 years, until Dec. 1975, before we saw any "real" Maine winter.  Then moved to Ft. Kent on New Year's Day 1976.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Interesting - that's more than we got in BGR (7.6") from that event, even though it was by far the best storm I saw in that half-winter following the move.  We did get 9" of paste over 4 days in late Feb, but with no-stick S- during the daylight, depth never exceeded 4" during the event.  After which came 4 clear cold days and poof!  No more winter.  Then 73-74 threatened BGR's low-snow record until the 8.6" of powder (at upper 20s) on April 9-10.  We lived in the state nearly 3 years, until Dec. 1975, before we saw any "real" Maine winter.  Then moved to Ft. Kent on New Year's Day 1976.

'72-'73 and '73-'74 are a couple of very underrated stink-bomb winters over New England...they kind of hide amidst the great winters that happened like '70-'71, '71-'72, '75-'76, '76-'77, and '77-'78...and '78-'79 was pretty good in Maine too but not so much in SNE.  

 

Dec '72 was pretty big though in western ME and even down into interior SNE....but winter was garbage after that month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'72-'73 and '73-'74 are a couple of very underrated stink-bomb winters over New England...they kind of hide amidst the great winters that happened like '70-'71, '71-'72, '75-'76, '76-'77, and '77-'78...and '78-'79 was pretty good in Maine too but not so much in SNE.  

 

Dec '72 was pretty big though in western ME and even down into interior SNE....but winter was garbage after that month.

Lots of big snow piles when we got to BGR in Jan 1973 - they'd had about 50" in Dec - then blechh after that.

78-79 was weird in Maine, started great with a cold Nov and 46" in Dec at Ft. Kent, including 16.5" Dec 25-27 while my parents came for Christmas.  Then came January, PWM's snowiest month on record, with its #2 snowstorm, 27.1", beaten by Feb 13.  While that 27" was falling, my max-min touched -47 on the 18th, and while PWM was getting about 8" late month, we had mid-30s RA.  In 10 Januarys in Ft. Kent, we had 5 days with minima >32F, all in 1979.  In 9.7 winters we had 5 mornings at -39 or colder, 3 of them in 1979.  Then February had 8 consecutive days with subzero maxima and unending wind, followed by only 2" in March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Interesting - that's more than we got in BGR (7.6") from that event, even though it was by far the best storm I saw in that half-winter following the move.  We did get 9" of paste over 4 days in late Feb, but with no-stick S- during the daylight, depth never exceeded 4" during the event.  After which came 4 clear cold days and poof!  No more winter.  Then 73-74 threatened BGR's low-snow record until the 8.6" of powder (at upper 20s) on April 9-10.  We lived in the state nearly 3 years, until Dec. 1975, before we saw any "real" Maine winter.  Then moved to Ft. Kent on New Year's Day 1976.

I don't know if you know this already but there is a coop in Ft Kent going back to the 1800's...Ft. Kent got 30" in January 1976...

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-4806CFFD-74ED-4730-9422-3860068B2BBA.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I don't know if you know this already but there is a coop in Ft Kent going back to the 1800's...Ft. Kent got 30" in January 1976...

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-4806CFFD-74ED-4730-9422-3860068B2BBA.pdf

I've got temp/rainfall records for 1/1/1893 thru 6/30/1894, then almost nothing until some sporadic precip/snowfall starting in 1927.  Complete obs, temp-precip-snow, begin 9/36 with consistent depths coming 3 years later.  Maybe I should check the Climod site to see if some blanks could be filled in.  (I used to go to Utah Climate Center, but find their current site rather clunky.)
With very few exceptions (Gardiner dates back to 1886), Maine's oldest co-ops began in Jan 1893.  At least those I've discovered, and I'm sure there are some I've not.  I happen to live about 6 miles from one of that bunch; Farmington's records for temp, precip, snowfall are over 99% complete 1893 on, missed several months in 1909 plus 2-3 other months.  Snowpack is sketchy before the current observer took over in 1966, which brings up a concern - he's far from young; will anyone take his place?  LEW is also class of 1893, and they dropped off the charts about 6 years ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.