CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: If I don’t see some high latitude blocking show up in the first 3 weeks of November then I’ll be worried about this winter not permorfmimg. All la Nina’s that had a -nao average in November had a good winter. The +nao averaged La Niña November’s look shot Pacific > Atlantic. I would look more out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pacific > Atlantic. I would look more out that way. I hear you but still if you just look at the data for great La Niña winters all them that had a -nao average for November ended up being a lot colder/snowier compared ones that averaged +nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I hear you but still if you just look at the data for great La Niña winters all them that had a -nao average for November ended up being a lot colder/snowier compared ones that averaged +nao 07-08 was a good Nina with a +NAO. If we get a big AK low....we are cooked either way. So I think the pacific is more important here. If that is good...we may be fine even with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 07-08 was a good Nina with a +NAO. If we get a big AK low....we are cooked either way. So I think the pacific is more important here. If that is good...we may be fine even with a +NAO. 07-08 was a decent winter in terms on snowfall but the nao is really the deal breaker when looking at great La Niña winters vs decent La Niña winters. But overall I would agree that the pacific has more weight and can get it done like it has before. 60%pacific>40% Atlantic is how I rate it for la Nina’s. If the Atlantic is terrible we can do decent at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 20 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Shocking that ORH worked out okay. As soon as Will said it, I was thinking this too. But I didn't want Scott to jump off the chairlift with visions of 2009-2010 cirrus smoke out again. I'm still scarred from that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 I think Pacific is important because if you get -NAO in unfavorable pattern, it's dry, and if Pacific is bad it's hard for -NAO to sustain. Blocking periods don't see much snow unless prolonged. (This is more an AO argument, NAO is SLP in eastern Atlantic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 -nao can certainly help in -pna patterns though. I’ve seen plenty of systems heading into the GL re-develop under the block. But then there are times with a crap pacific -nao leads to a bone dry pattern...so I’m more like 65/35 pacific/atlantic importance. Being just 60 miles north of nyc also leads to a greater reliance of an -nao too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Pacific > Atlantic. I would look more out that way. Coastal Massarotti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Coastal Massarotti Fact not opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: -nao can certainly help in -pna patterns though. I’ve seen plenty of systems heading into the GL re-develop under the block. But then there are times with a crap pacific -nao leads to a bone dry pattern...so I’m more like 65/35 pacific/atlantic importance. Being just 60 miles north of nyc also leads to a greater reliance of an -nao too. Exactly, last year wasn’t as east based as this year but it was still a weak La Niña and the -pna killed us. If we had a -nao during some of that time period it would’ve been a lot better winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Exactly, last year wasn’t as east based as this year but it was still a weak La Niña and the -pna killed us. If we had a -nao during some of that time period it would’ve been a lot better winter overall. The EMA folk tend to be pacific horny after their 30 day stretch in 2015. You could not draw up a better EPO and PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Last year was not that bad snowfall wise. You guys are boning the Atlantic way too much. Just because there isn't a -NAO does not mean it's skunked. If the Pacific sucks...you will need a lot more of a prayer for sure. I will always take a -NAO...but given the base state lately...I would not hang my hat on that occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 "If I don’t see some high latitude blocking show up in the first 3 weeks of November then I’ll be worried about this winter not permorfmimg. All la Nina’s that had a -nao average in November had a good winter. The +nao averaged La Niña November’s look shot" All I am saying is that we had winters that were pretty good..esp north of pike without a -NAO in Novie. We all would take a -NAO...but I'm not worried about winter tanking as long as Kevin's one eyed pig doesn't strike down from AK through the PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Last year was not that bad snowfall wise. You guys are boning the Atlantic way too much. Just because there isn't a -NAO does not mean it's skunked. If the Pacific sucks...you will need a lot more of a prayer for sure. I will always take a -NAO...but given the base state lately...I would not hang my hat on that occurring. 65/35 isn’t boning, more like gentle foreplay massaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 65/35 isn’t boning, more like gentle foreplay massaging. I think Powderboy is slowly disrobing to every level of orange near Greenland. Anyways, I wanted to clear it up by quoting him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Scott, I realize this is generally all voo-doo anyway, but is a few years of a lack of -nao really a rational reason to not forecast one going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think Powderboy is slowly disrobing to every level of orange near Greenland. Anyways, I wanted to clear it up by quoting him. All I’m saying is if you want a great winter, I would like to see a -nao average for November. If it is negative our chances of having a -nao during DJFM greatly increase. Especially during La Niña when we need it most because a -pna is prominent. Not getting obsessive over the orange colors just stating what the majority of the historical data has proven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 39 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Scott, I realize this is generally all voo-doo anyway, but is a few years of a lack of -nao really a rational reason to not forecast one going forward? It's not just that. Still a pretty stout 30-50mb vortex near the Pole. Nina's tend to have fast flow and promote more of a +AO/NAO. Obviously the strat can change..but I'm not convinced yet. I mentioned earlier that the chances are better than what we have seen over the last few years to help get an overall averaged -NAO DJFM. This thanks to the QBO. Also, I am not implying that it's impossible to get temporary ridging. That happens in most winters and we certainly can take advantage of those. But I'm not on the average -NAO DJFM train yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 35 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: All I’m saying is if you want a great winter, I would like to see a -nao average for November. If it is negative our chances of having a -nao during DJFM greatly increase. Especially during La Niña when we need it most because a -pna is prominent. Not getting obsessive over the orange colors just stating what the majority of the historical data has proven I hear ya...I guess I'm not too worried about the NAO issues yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just now, CoastalWx said: It's not just that. Still a pretty stout 30-50mb vortex near the Pole. Nina's tend to have fast flow and promote more of a +AO/NAO. Obviously the strat can change..but I'm not convinced yet. I mentioned earlier that the chances are better than what we have seen over the last few years to help get an overall averaged -NAO DJFM. This thanks to the QBO. Also, I am not implying that it's impossible to get temporary ridging. That happens in most winters and we certainly can take advantage of those. But I'm not on the average -NAO DJFM train yet. okay that's fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 There does seem to be some warming over the pole on the GEFS strat product especially, some on the ecmwf too, I wonder if anything will come of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I certainly am not saying it's impossible...I just don't have the confidence that others may have of a -NAO. I'm hoping we can get some ridging into the poles to help create more of a neutral or even -AO. We seem to have done that easily over the last few years. Hopefully it can continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: There does seem to be some warming over the pole on the GEFS strat product especially, some on the ecmwf too, I wonder if anything will come of that. I've noticed that we've had some good punches over the last few years in terms of these warm blobs trying to displace the vortex, but it always came back..or remained just ever so slightly off the N Pole. Maybe N Korea can help us out. One of these days, it's going to get TKO'd. It has to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I've noticed that we've had some good punches over the last few years in terms of these warm blobs trying to displace the vortex, but it always came back..or remained just ever so slightly off the N Pole. Maybe N Korea can help us out. One of these days, it's going to get TKO'd. It has to. Judah and King Jom Un tag teaming on the strat. I’ll hedge against that until they prove me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Judah and King Jom Un tag teaming on the strat. I’ll hedge against that until they prove me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 37 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This made my week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Rocket man................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 First snow in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Does anybody know where you can find EPO monthly values? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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