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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and especially the past 5 years. Not coincidence either that we've gotten some pretty decent cold outbreaks in the past few years.

 

I am hoping that we continue to see the EPO help out this year because I'm not counting on the NAO...though maybe it will surprise. 1995-1996 certainly did....we had gone 8 consecutive winters with a +NAO before '95-'96.

I'm about to dig into the some of the intraseasonal variability of the indexes amongst the analog set....especially the NAO.

Have you considered utilizing the MEI to distinguish strength of ENSO?

I know the sst method can be obnoxious and inconsistent for reasons stated.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm about to dig into the some of the intraseasonal variability of the indexes amongst the analog set....especially the NAO.

Have you considered utilizing the MEI to distinguish strength of ENSO?

I know the sst method can be obnoxious and inconsistent for reasons stated.

MEI is definitely a popular method amongst some. I typically just use the trimonthly 3.4 method though. MEI would be an interesting variation though...

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where are the tabular weekly ENSO readings again...link?

Thx..

 

Current version:

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

Old 1971-2000 link:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MEI is definitely a popular method amongst some. I typically just use the trimonthly 3.4 method though. MEI would be an interesting variation though...

 

 

Current version:

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

Old 1971-2000 link:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml

Thanks.

I'm going to try to formulate a solid analog-base by integrating current MEI and ONI readings.....then I'll blog about it.

I think a good tactic to take is to eliminate seasons, and narrow the pool, as opposed to playing pin the tail on the weenie to come up with the best.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, no..I mean the site that gives all of the current ENSO region anomalies...Steve probably has it.

 Niño.

Baseline period 1961–1990.
Index to 17/9/2017 to 24/9/2017 to 1/10/2017 to 8/10/2017
NINO3 −0.4 °C −0.6 °C −0.3 °C 0.0 °C
NINO3.4 −0.3 °C −0.3 °C −0.1 °C 0.0 °C
NINO4 +0.1 °C +0.1 °C +0.1 °C +0.2 °
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4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

CPC has 3.4 at -0.5 on their latest weekly.  

Yea...there is some variance, depending on where you look.

Sources vary, and there has been warming since Monday.

The bottom line is that there is some warming ongoing and climo is strongly in favor of a weak la Nina.

I think -.03 is closer in real time.

Thanks, Nick.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyway, here is Novie..has the Aleutian Low/Nino look:

 

Novie.png

Nice

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...there is some variance, depending on where you look.

Sources vary, and there has been warming since Monday.

The bottom line is that there is some warming ongoing and climo is strongly in favor to a weak la Nina.

I think -.03 is closer in real time.

Thanks, Nick.

stick with the Aussies and you are welcome

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